Friday, June 29, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: United Nation Stakes (G1)

Silver on the Green 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

Our ThoroFan blog visit take us to beautiful Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore for the United Nation Stakes on Saturday. 











The Grade 1 contest offers a purse of $300,000 and features a field of nine older horses traveling 11-furlongs over the turf course.





A quartet of horses from the notable Chad Brown barn and two from trainer Mike Maker compose two-thirds of the field. One of the horses that Maker sends out, Bigger Picture, won this event last year by a head after rallying from next to last place. The seven-year old with 31 lifetime starts, the most in the field, was coming off a 10-week layoff. He will try to attempt a repeat following another layoff this season, albeit a shorter rest of 7-weeks.


Maker’s other horse is Oscar Nominated, who has been installed as the 4-1 second choice on morning line choice. The 5-year old by Kitten’s Joy has six wins from 26 outings but has not started since April 21st and he has never won above the Grade 3 level.


Three of the four runners from the Brown stable, Money Multiplier, Kurilov and Silverwave, have plenty of top level experience. Both Kurilov and Silverwave have won Group 1 races in their home countries of Chile and France, respectively. 


Money Multiplier is a six-year old that has raced three times over the Monmouth grass that has garnered him two wins and a second. Most recently, he returned from a three-month layoff to win the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes for the second year in a row. He also was runner-up in this contest in 2016.


The lone runner from the two-time Eclipse award winning trainer Brown that has not competed in graded stakes competition is, Funtastic. The 4-year old colt is lightly raced with just eight starts and enters this difficult spot off a wire-to-wire score in an Allowance-Optional Claimer at Belmont.


Veteran turf runner, One Go All Go, is well traveled throughout his career. The six-year old horse Virginia-bred is a multiple Group 2 winner that has made a few forays into Grade 1 status with mixed results. He makes his first appearance at Monmouth and will be saddled by Charles Dickey.


The Brazilian-bred Vettori Kin, going out for trainer Ken McPeek, won a Group 1 race in his native country in 2016 before shipping stateside. He made only one start in 2017. This season the five-year old got in the win column in his fourth and most recent start when he won the 12-furlong Grade 3 Louisville Handicap. 


Rounding out the field is, Profiteer. The 4-year old colt from the Shug McGaughey stable has made all his 13 starts on the grass across seven different turf courses from east coast to west coast. He has not been out-of-the-money in four starts this year but now faces his toughest assignment to date.


The weather forecast calls for sunny skies and warm temperatures. The United Nation Stakes goes as race 11 with post time slated for 6:01 E.S.T. Do not miss this one, folks.



Analysis: Late speed and class dominate on the turf. Find the fastest closer against the most advanced competition. That lands me on Silverwave. The French-bred runner is a two-time Group 2 winner and won a Group 1 event in France. He defeated eventual 2017 Breeders’ Cup Turf champ, Talismanic, at Chantilly and wasn’t far behind that same foe when finishing fifth at Saint Cloud. Some of the names of the opponents this horse has faced would be odds on choice here. 


Since coming to the States, Silverwave has been off-the-board in his only two starts, but both races were clearly preps for this spot. In his opener, the Grade 3 Fort Marcy, he was in behind Spring Quality who went on to win the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes on the Belmont undercard.


Silverwave has been training well and could be primed for a peak effort in his third start of the year, one of many categories trainer Brown excels in.
Money Multiplier has shown an affinity for the Monmouth turf course and that stat must be taken seriously. He is a solid Grade 2 horse with an overall turf record of being first or second 10 times. Last year, he stepped into Grade 1 company off his comeback effort in this race and was narrowly defeated at Saratoga. 


One Go All Go is a very consistent race horse at the G1/G2 level. He’s hit the board in both his attempts at this marathon distance. He appears to be the pacesetter and his early speed is his biggest asset. He’ll be tough on the lead and could steal it if not given too much pressure.


Vettori Kin steps up off a big win at Churchill Downs. His late run in the Grade 3 Louisville Handicap earned him a strong Bris late pace figure that must be respected.



Play: Win $100 ThoroFan dollars, I’ll wager $50 to win on Silverwave. I’ll play two $10 exacta boxes:  Silverwave with Money Multiplier and One Go All Go ($40 total). The remaining play will be a straight $10 exacta of Silverwave over Vettori Kin.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!


Friday, June 22, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: Chicago Handicap (G3)

Competitive Chicago 'Cap Draws 13 

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off 



After a year's diversion to Churchill Downs, the Chicago Handicap is back where it belongs this year: Arlington Park.  This year marks the 29th running of the race.  Last year's edition was at Churchill Downs, though it was run at Arlington for all its editions before that.





Though the surfaces differ, the Chicago Handicap does cover the same trip as the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint: seven furlongs.  One horse, Informed Decision, has swept the Chicago Handicap-Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Spring double.  She did so in 2009 on the way to an Eclipse for Champion Female Sprinter, then came back to win another edition of the Chicago Handicap in 2010.  One other mare has won both this race and a Breeders' Cup race.  Hall of Fame inductee Safely Kept (1991) beat males in the Breeders' Cup Sprint and was also named Champion Sprinter the previous year.  Though Meafara (1993) never won a Breeders' Cup race, she came close twice, as she was Breeders' Cup Sprint runner-up in both 1992 and 1993.


In recent years at Arlington, local horses and connections have made good account of themselves. Ingrid Mason trainee Sarah Sis claimed the 2016 running of the Chicago Handicap.  In 2014 a Chris Block charge, My Option, ran down Flower Spell, another standard-bearer for the Mason barn.

Arlington Park - Saturday, June 23

Race 8: Chicago Handicap (G3), fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up, seven furlongs on the polytrack, post time 5:11pm CST



This year's Chicago Handicap drew a field of thirteen fillies and mares to vie for a $100,000 purse.  It's a competitive affair: a mix of proven Arlington runners and those trying the local Polytrack for the first time, a mix of proven seven-furlong runners and horses who are dabbling at the distance to see if it suits.


The race looks uncommon from a pace perspective.  For a one-turn race with thirteen entrants, it didn't draw a whole lot of speed. Several of the entrants have route speed – Princess La Quinta, Babybluesbdancing, One Liz, Full of Zip – but few have sharp sprint speed.


That makes Marquee Miss on the rail interesting.  The daughter of Cowboy Cal lost her last race at the break: she came out of the gate poorly, and never recovered.  But, with a better break she could jump from the rail and set the fractions.  Other than that last race, her form over the Polytrack is good: she won the Arlington-Washington Lassie (a seven-furlong Polytrack sprint) on debut, and also has a second-place finish over the course. 


And, if Marquee Miss doesn't strike the front immediately?  As long as she gets out of the gate cleanly, she also has a rate-and-rally gear, and has successfully rated and rallied from inside draws.  Finally, the barn bodes well.  The last two times the Chicago Handicap was run in Chicago, Ingrid Mason had something to say: her Sarah Sis won in 2016, and her Flower Spell led a long way and held on for second in 2014.  At a reasonable price in a wide-open race, Marquee Miss gets top billing.

Hotshot Anna tries graded company for the first time, and found a good spot at which to do it.  She comes off a sharp victory at Canterbury, done in stalk-and-pounce style, going six and a half furlongs.  Now she stretches to seven for the first time: but between her sharp six and a half furlong score and the fact that she has been able to stretch her form out to a mile, seven should suit Hotshot Anna well.  Though she is an off-pace type, she shouldn't need to rally from the clouds, and she doesn't need a pace collapse to find her rally.  The biggest question about Hotshot Anna is the Polytrack.  But, since her only start came in her debut, her inexperience may do more to explain her off-board finish than the surface.  Hotshot Anna has a couple of local works, suggesting she has settled in.  If she can run as fast here as she can on the dirt at Canterbury and Oaklawn, she looms a threat.


Grade 1 winner Union Strike brings class to this affair.  Her current form is a question, as she has been out of the starting gate since a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita.  The Polytrack is also a question, as she has only ever run on dirt.  But, the most consistent thing about Union Strike's form is her ability at extended sprint distances. She won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) at seven furlongs, won the six-and-a-half-furlong Santa Paula, and finished second beaten only a head in the seven-furlong Eight Belles (G2).  This race has Union Strike right back in that distance sweet spot.  On pace, she should be fine; though she's an off-pace type, she rallied well even if the pace in front of her is not torrid.  Union Strike has also shown the ability to fire fresh; she won the Santa Paula first off a four-month lay.  Trainer Mick Ruis has found a reasonable spot to bring Union Strike back, and she figures strongly if she takes to the Polytrack.


Selections:

#1 Marquee Miss

#7 Hotshot Anna

#2 Union Strike


Longshot:  It's almost a surprise that Illinois-bred #11 One Liz hasn't run seven furlongs before.  After all, over the course of her twenty-six race career, it seems the seven-year-old grey has tried just about every surface and distance under the sun and been able to excel at all of them.  She can sprint, and she can route.  She can sit near the lead, or she can rally from well off the going.  And, she has been excellent on the Arlington polytrack.   

One Liz finished off the board on debut – but in six starts since, she has five wins and a second-place finish.  That second-place finish came last out, but she faced the futile task of chasing a loose-on-the-lead Dreamofjean E. all the way around.   

Though Julio Felix, her rider for her last two, he defects to Babybluesbdancing?That doesn't look like an indictment of One Liz's form, as Felix has been riding Babybluesbdancing since she was a juvenile.Instead top rider Jose Valdivia takes the reins on One Liz; Valdivia booted One Liz home to a sprint stakes victory at Arlington last year. If she brings her best form, he could guide her to another one at a price.

Friday, June 15, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: Stephen Foster Handicap (G1)

Backyard Heaven vs the Rest in Stephen Foster Handicap

By: The Turk

  
Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  The Turk has taken a handicappers holiday for most of 2018 while he was finishing up a Master's Degree in Finance.  The course work has mostly been used to analyze my poor betting capital allocations, but I'm back, and happily this first blog post back is for The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner.  Good People, Good Organization and hopefully good returns on investment.

The Turk has been a horse racing fan since Seattle Slew's Triple Crown run of 1977 when I was eleven years old.  Like many boy's my age, Sports Illustrated and ABC's Wide World of Sports were my windows into the sporting world, and horse racing was still a high profile major sport.  It's been great to see the excitement Justify and American Pharoah have brought to the sport, a sport that desperately needs more good marketing.  Churchill Downs night time racing is something I enjoy very much and while I know this 51 year old isn't exactly a demographic priority, I appreciate Saturday night racing and wagering and wish there was more quality nights like this in the summer.

Let's get after this!
 
The weather on Friday and Saturday looks pretty dry, so let's assume a fast dry track.


Backyard Heaven, a lightly raced 4 YO Tizway colt, trained by Chad Brown, looked awfully impressive in dispatching Always Dreaming and a good field in the Grade 2 Alysheba here at CD on Kentucky Derby Day.  He's got excellent tactical speed and I'm singling him, keying all my thoughts on his continued brilliance.  You have to wonder what this win would mean and how Trainer Brown would point him afterwards, with the Breeders' Cup looming at Churchill Downs in five months.

He is facing a deep and talented field: Churchill local Honorable Duty breaks from the 1 gate and will need his early speed to gain position.  The 6 YO gelded son of Distorted Humor is 6 of 8 in the money at CD and 9 of 11 in the money over fast dirt.  Trainer Brendan Walsh and rider Lanerie are clipping along at a 30% win rate with 46 mounts this year.   Place in last years edition of this race.
Irish War Cry, 4 YO Curlin, comes in off a driving win in the Pimlico Special in the slop where he has a 421 Tomlinson. It was his first win six starts after his Wood Memorial.   I'm not sold.  


Pavel, the 4 YO enigmatic Creative Cause, campaigned by the Reddam Team of Doug O'Neill with Gutierrez up, is too talented to overlook.  A well beaten fourth in Dubai in March followed by a well beaten fourth in the Gold Cup G1 at Santa Anita three weeks ago, breaking at the top of the stretch under the pressure of fast fractions.  The distance and class cutback won't hurt but I need to see more consistency before considering him to win races. 

Looking at Lee, who's arguable best performance was a lagging Place to Always Dreaming in last year's Kentucky Derby, comes in off his first win, a 62K OC N2X class drop.  I grouped him with a couple of 8 YO geldings, Hawaakom and Matrooh.  They are both hard knocking veterans who can easily be in the money, especially Hawaakom with his very late speed. 

Pletcher's uncoupled Uncle Mojo and fan favorite Patch round out the field and I've tossed them both from contention at my own risk. 

So what to do with this?  As I said, I see Backyard Heaven as a heavy favorite and I'm singling him on all my tickets.

Exacta:  $2 Bet 6 OVER 1-3-5  for $6.   I'd expect the 1-3-5 will all be >6-1 and should easily return my opportunity cost.  
Trifecta:  $2 Bet  6 OVER 1-3-8-9 OVER 1-3-5-7-8-9 for $40.  Dropping the 7 altogether takes the bet to $32.

Good news:  The handicapping holiday refreshed both me and my love of the game.  The bad news:  I'm a bit rusty, so no betting the mortgage on my ramblings.

Good luck, Turk out!

Handicapper's Corner Fleur de Lis Handicap (G2)

Speed Rules the Fleur de Lis Handicap

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds


The 1 1/8 mile Fleur de Lis Handicap (G2) attracted a competitive field of nine older fillies and mares. A fairly new race by historical standards, the Fleur de Lis is on the resume of many of the best mares in history:  Serena’s Song, Escena, Banshee Breeze, Spain, Hystericalady, Rachel Alexandra, Royal Delta and Forever Unbridled.





The race is a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” stakes event – the winner earns an automatic spot in the in the Starting Gate of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI) at Churchill Downs on Nov. 3.

Let’s review the 2018 Fleur de Lis Handicap field to see who will join the illustrious roster.



FARRELL is the 3-1 favorite. The free-running filly made all the pace in the 1 1/16 mile La Troienne on KY Oaks day but was run down late by Salty.  The Wayne Catalano trainee breaks from the outside, adds a half-furlong and will need to use her early speed to get her preferred spot at the front of the pack.


A trio of fillies who filled out the 1 1/8 mile DuPont Distaff the day before the Preakness should benefit from a dry track.  

SONG OF SPRING rallied from off the pace, after going five-wide on the far turn to get up in the shadow of the wire to best the favorite, BLUE PRIZE (ARG).  That courageous filly dueled the entire way, only to drift badly in late stretch and have victory snatched away at the last second. FUHRIOUSLY KISSED ran well to be third. 

Farrell will have to deal with the speed of APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED, who breaks just inside of her. The Brendan Walsh conditioned filly placed second in the 1 1/16 mile Double Dog Dare last time out, as she couldn’t withstand the charge of VALADORNA. That one has finished off the board only once.  APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED was second in last year’s edition of the Fleur de Lis

MOPOTISM invades from California, where she’s been keeping tough company such as G1 winners Fault and Unique Bella. The Fleur de Lis is actually softer company for the daughter of Uncle Mo.

AWESTRUCK takes on graded stakes company for the first time. The pretty gray daughter of Tapit is also stretching out, after a diet of sprinter/miler allowance contests. She has the pedigree to love the extra distance and enters after beating allowance company by over six lengths last out at Churchill. 

STREAMLINE, last seen tiring late in the La Troienne is reunited with jockey Chris Landeros. They teamed up with good results earlier in the year.


How the race shapes up
FARRELL, APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED, BLUE PRIZE and possibly AWESTRUCK may keep things interesting in the early stages of the Fleur de Lis.  VALADORNA, MOPOTISM, and STREAMLINE will settle mid-pack while SONG OF SPRING and FUHRIOUSLY KISSED will linger at the back of the pack. 

VALADORNA can get the jump on SONG OF SPRING. The daughter of Curlin has finished off the board only once since last November. Song of Spring has experience at the distance, but her 6-1-0-1 record at Churchill isn’t great. Blue Prize is a tough mare who doesn’t like to lose, but she may be softened up by the early pace.   

Selections
#7 VALADORNA (4-1)
#5 SONG OF SPRING (6-1)
#3 BLUE PRIZE (7-2)
#8 APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED (12-1)

Handigambling
This is a competitive race. The top four fillies have a legitimate shot at winning, so let’s get imaginative with ThoroFan’s virtual $100.
$1 Super Key:
7/5,3,8,1 = $24
5/7,3,8,1 = $24
3/5,7,8,1 = $24
8/3,5,7,1 = $24

$2 left for a wager on the Stephen Foster.

Friday, June 8, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Belmont Stakes

Justify Searching for Greatness in Belmont Stakes



The ThoroFan Handicappers resolutely face the Test of Champions, while making their selections for the 2018 Belmont Stakes.

Like California Chrome and American Pharoah before him, Justify will try to capture the elusive Triple Crown. Will he shine like American Pharoah or fade at the end like California Chrome?

Picks are for first through third place and our best longshot bomb. 

Good Luck to everyone!

HANDICAPPER
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
LONGSHOT
Michael Amo
Noble Indy
Justify
Gronkowski

Free Drop Billy

John Caro
Bravazo
Justify
Hofburg

Tenfold

Justify
Vino Rosso
Hofburg

Tenfold

Justify
Vino Rosso
Noble Indy

Blended Citizen

Justify
Blended Citizen
Tenfold

Free Drop Billy

Michael Mills
Vino Rosso
Justify
Blended Citizen

Restoring Hope

Vino Rosso
Justify
Tenfold

Blended Citizen

Hofburg
Justify
Bravazo

Tenfold