Friday, May 26, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Gamely Stakes (G1)

Lady Eli Ready to Roll in Gamely Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

 
The Gamely Stakes (G1) Stakes held at 1 1/8 miles over the Santa Anita turf has an extensive history filled with illustrious stars. The event was held at now defunct Hollywood Park through 2013. The roll call of splendid fillies includes Champions such as Estrapade, who took on Manila and Theatrical in the 1985 Breeders’ Cup Turf; Toussaud, better known as the dam of Empire Maker, Chester House, Honest Lady, Chiselling and Decarchy; Hollywood Wildcat, Possibly Perfect, and Fiji.  More recently, the names of Citronnade, Tuscan Evening, Marketing Mix and Hard Not To Like have lit the tote.

This year, six very competitive fillies will vie for the Gamely Stakes trophy.  All eyes will be on Lady Eli as she makes her second start of the season. The mare won the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and was denied victory by a slim nose in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.  In her 2017 season debut, Lady Eli found trouble during the running of the Jenny Wiley Stakes and just missed the win by a nose.  She’s the classiest and most talented of the Gamely field, owns the highest late pace speed figure in the field (102), and has previously won over the Santa Anita turf.

Goodyearforroses (Ire) had a three-race win streak snapped in the Jenny Wiley, but is back on her home turf. After a so-so record at Woodbine, the mare settled into the barn of California trainer Richard Baltas.  Goodyearforroses loves Santa Anita and is unbeaten there. She signaled her readiness drilling 4F in 4.8 with Nakatani in the saddle. Goodyearforroses owns the second highest late pace speed figure of 101.

At 12-1, September Stars (Ire) is one to watch. After an undistinguished career facing good fillies in England, the four-year-old daughter of Sea the Stars joined Paddy Gallagher’s barn. She outclassed optional claimers in both starts this year at 1 1/8 miles and will get a class test. Her speed figures improved in each start and California legend Gary Stevens will once again be in the irons.

Pretty Girl has been no match for Goodyearforroses in her first two starts of the year but was best of the rest. Pretty Girl ran out of real estate in the one mile Royal Heroine Stakes last time out but missed by a fast closing two lengths. Her improving speed figures indicate that she’s one to include in exotics.

Mokat hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since last July at Del Mar. She came within a half-length of victory in the Royal Heroine last time out and has flashed back-to-back bullets, but Mokat hasn’t finished in the money in three starts at 1 1/8 miles.  Her best races lie ahead at her favorite track, Del Mar.

Avenge will lead them on a merry chase from post one, but how long she keep them at bay is anyone’s guess. The Richard Mandella trainee is making her first start of the season and has never won off a layoff. She typically needs a few starts to get the legs stretched out.

Selections
Avenge does her best work on the front end. As a confirmed front runner, she could do one of two things, either slow the pace and try to last or get enough distance in front to outlast the rest.  Lady Eli can be placed anywhere and will likely settle just off Avenge or perhaps in third place. Her far outside post should offer a clear trip. Pretty Girl, Goodyearforroses, and September Stars will sort themselves out mid-pack while MoKat will make one run from the back of the pack.

#6 LADY ELI (4-5)
#4 GOODYEARFORROSES (4-1)
#2 SEPTEMBER STARS (12-1)
#3 PRETTY GIRL (12-1)

Handigambling:
Not a good betting race.  The only hope for a decent payout is if one of the fillies gets the better of Lady Eli.

$100 bankroll:
$2 Superfecta box #6, #4, #2, #3 = $48
$1 Tri key #6/#4, #2, #3/#4, #2, #3 = $24
$2 Quinella box #6, #4, #2, #3 = $12
$16 - lunch
 

Handicapper's Corner: Santa Anita Gold Cup (G1)

Digging for Gold at Santa Anita

By: The Turk

Midnight Storm: Photo by Benoit
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. I'd like to thank The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me an opportunity to share my thoughts with you.  To those of you unaware, Thorofan is a national organization created specifically to serve the horse racing fan.  If you are looking for other like minded racing fans, look no further than The Thorofan.



The Turk cashed zippo tickets on the past two Triple Crown races.  I could tell you how close I was to winning and winning big, but that's loser talk.  My handicapping of some of the longer shots was a bit off but my bet construction was dead on.  I built bets with favorites and long shots interspersed in the Superfecta.  You won't hit all your bets, but that doesn't mean your process was wrong.  Have a plan and follow a plan.  Consistency in betting is the key to breaking even and scratching out positive ROI.  Everything is against you as a horseplayer:  Be honest with yourself, study your ROI, understand the impact of takeout, and treat your betting capital like the precious commodity it is. 



The Turk likes the handicap division* because he loves to see the large amount of data in the Past Performances.  The asterisk is that the handicap division is a watered down shell of what it was a decade ago.  The best are off to the breeder's shed and there are just fewer horses overall.  The purpose of this blog isn't to give cutting edge commentary on the state of the sport, its to handicap and build bets on who is racing, so while I may miss the days of past, it doesn't change what I do overall.

Let's get after this!

  

The Turk has been a big Santa Anita player, especially since the return to dirt, but even I have been a bit soured by field sizes and consistency over this Winters Meet.  I was happy to see the news that Mr. Stronach was sending his fixer, Tim Ritvo to Santa Anita to fix this horse racing gem. 

Today's race, the Santa Anita Gold Cup, is a Grade 1 with 9 runners over the dirt at the classic distance of 1 1/4 Miles.  There are 12 starts in this field at that distance and one win.   Let's take a look at a few of the competitors. 

The Californian Grade 2 (April 22) ;  A five horse field at  1 1/8 Miles  

The Tokyo City Grade 3 (2 April);  a six horse field at 1 1/2 Miles  

Not a prep but San Pasquale Grade 2 at 1 1/16 (January 1 2017)  

Santa Anita Handicap G1 (March 11) 1 1/4 Miles  

 Alysheba Stakes Grade 2 at CD 5 May 2017  at 1 1/16 Miles  

Oaklawn Handicap Grade 2 at Oaklawn (15 April 2017)  

Not a prep but Cupid's last good start West Virginia Derby Grade 2 (August 6, 2016)

   

Takeaways:  Small fields and a lot of off tracks this Winter!  The only horse making a start off a win is Hard Aces, who won the marathon distance Tokyo City over Big John B by a neck.  Hard Aces and Big John B collectively have 82 starts.  Journeymen, not stars, fill the cards in the handicap division. I digress. 


By all measures, Midnight Storm at six years old is the class of the group. He'll be on the lead with Cupid and perhaps American Freedom.  I think those two will both crack and fade.  It may set up one of the many one run horses who will be coming hard at the pace. 


Accelerate has been training well at Santa Anita although he doesn't win much lately.   No wins in 3 2017 starts, no wins in six starts at Santa Anita.  I like him in the top three, perhaps Place. 


A Quality Road 5 year old, Follow Me Crev, is in the same group as Accelerate.  He'll make one run and it just depends on early pace and if Midnight Storm can finish or not. He's also training well at Santa Anita but his barn hasn't won a graded stakes in sometime.  Place or Show. 


Cupid is the class of the race, a $900,000  2014 Keeneland purchase, who had a nice run in 2016 with minor Derby's before cracking in the PA Derby in September, and he's been on the shelf since.  A bit slow but he has won at Santa Anita and his trainer Baffert placed him here, with a track record over the past year of 28% winners on 180+ layoffs.  I'm not sold on the Top Four for without more work to show me.  Cover/not Cover: It's the biggest decision you will make at the windows. 


I'm not sure what I'm going to do with this yet.  If forced for early thoughts I'll single Midnight Storm and have a group of horses including Follow Me Crev, Accelerate and Cupid in Place and Show with American Freedom and Big John B in the Exotic spot.  I'm not sure about the value of the bet until I see the tote board and ultimately may just pass on betting depending on scratches. 

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!  

Friday, May 19, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Who Will Win the 2017 Preakness Stakes?

Who Will Win the 2017 Preakness Stakes?





Congratulations to Reinier Macatangay for picking Always Dreaming on top in the Kentucky Derby.


The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers take their best shot at the 2017 Preakness. Picks are for first through third place and their best longshot bomb. Only two handicappers think Always Dreaming can do it again, while many feel that Classic Empire will rebound.


Good Luck to everyone and Get Your Preak On!

HANDICAPPER
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
LONGSHOT
Michael Amo
Lookin at Lee
Classic Empire
Conquest Mo Money
Cloud Computing
John Caro
Always Dreaming
Multiplier
Classic Empire
Conquest Mo Money
Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Cloud Computing
Hence
Classic Empire
Cloud Computing
Always Dreaming
Conquest Mo Money
Reinier Macatangay
Classic Empire
Conquest Mo Money
Always Dreaming
Cloud Computing
Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Gunnevera
Multiplier
Michael Mills
Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Cloud Computing
Multiplier
Conquest Mo Money
Always Dreaming
Classic Empire
Multiplier
Always Dreaming
Lookin at Lee
Classic Empire
Multiplier