Friday, November 25, 2016

Handicapper's Corner: Clark Handicap (G1)

2016 Clark Handicap Filled with Road Warriors

By: The Turk

  Happy Thanksgiving and Welcome to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share the musings of an old school handicapper with you today.  I've been blogging the Clark Handicap for many years and I'm reusing a post of mine from 5 years ago, 2011.  I figure if the Zayatt's can reuse a runner from that day, Prayers for Relief, I could reuse this as well.

Before I go too far,  I am thankful for the economic means that allows me to raise my family; I thank my employer. I thank my loving family. I cherish my friends, even though the introvert that I am doesn't make me a very social friend. I thank my pets.  I of course, thank my God.

Baseball fans get all misty eyed talking about Wrigley Field and Fenway Park, and as a hockey fan, I was saddened to see our Buffalo Memorial Auditorium condemned and knocked down in the name of luxury suites and more concessions. There is something special about these old places; places you shared highs and lows with, maybe with your father, your friends, your girlfriend, now your wife, your children.

Fenway and Wrigley were built in 1911 and 1914 respectively. Churchill Downs has existed since 1875, with the iconic twin spires going up in 1895. The driving force behind the creation of the track was Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark, grandson of the famous American explorer, General William Clark of the William and Clark expedition of 1804-1806, the first transcontinental expedition of the United States, and whose mother was from one of Kentucky's first and leading families, the Churchill's
At the age of 29, Meriwether Clark saw the first edition of this race run. As in all things in life, you don't really own something unless you really own it, and his mother's two brothers left the land to others after their death and Meriwether found himself as nothing more than a race steward by 1897. Already hurt deeply by poor financial investments, and followed by the loss of the track, Meriwether committed suicide in 1899 at the age of 53 years old. One can't help but think he stands along the rail along with all the other horse players we've said goodbye to over the years, players like Shawn Murphy, Rose Rizzo and Tiznow Reynolds.  Our dead horse players  watch these equine heroes run over the same route of dirt in South of Louisville like they been doing for the past 141 years.

I love old racetracks. I stare out at the track and I see and hear the ghosts of races past thundering up the stretch. The Clark Handicap is a tradition of mine, a wonderful post Thanksgiving Day event that I look forward too, an echo of the season that has essentially concluded, a harbinger of the coming winter, and a hint of handicap division to come once the sun returns.

Let's get after this!

I'm leaning towards Noble Bird being my fairly tepid Chalk.  3 of 4 in the money at Churchill Downs, 3 wins in 6 starts at the distance, a trainer-jock combo clipping along at a 29% win rate at CD, this on the lead runner has my nod and we'll see if he can hold what should be his lead at the top of the stretch.

Here's Noble Bird winning the G2 Hagyand Fayette  at KEE in late October setting a track record in the process.

I sure like Gun Runner an awful lot, just another great son of Candy Ride (Arg).  He won the G3 Matt Wynn here in June, his first back off Show in the Kentucky Derby.  I'm not a big fan of first race back off Breeders' Cup efforts but I like the horse alot, he likes this track and he's 9 of 9 in the money on fast dirt.

Hopportunity is no stranger to the race and he's coming in off an outclassed Breeders' Cup Classic. I think you have to respect Baffert bringing him here as well as his Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 win in early October.  He'll be coming late, which the Belmont stretch played well to his strength,  and he should have enough speed in front of him to make a late move.

Shaman Ghost, the Ontario bred 4 YO, has been on the shelf since winning at 9-1 in The Woodward G1. first start at CD, 4 wins in 8 starts on fast dirt, 1 win at the distance in 1 try, 6 wins in 12 lifetime starts.

Do I have last year's winner, Effinex, too low? he came off a stalking trip in last year's edition and if he's in that spot again this year of course he'll be dangerous. I'm covering him in multiple spots.

The last horse I'm going to consider is a bit of a wildcard, Roger Attfield's Are You Kidding Me.  No wins in two dirt starts, winless in only attempt at CD, the modestly bred 6 YO has a combined 29 turf and fake dirt starts, mostly at Woodbine, and he is running very well but this seems like a very odd placing for him.  I like him showing up in the ticket, as I suspect he will be on the lead and dropping like a stone near the wire.  Here he is at Churchill Downs running a flat effort in the Stephen Foster Handicap.

So what to do with all this? First of all, I love the big field of handicap division warriors.  This race would be an example of what I describe to people as to why I love horse racing.  I love the stories, I love seeing a 44 start 6 YO still doing what he does.  Everyone loves the triple crown races, but this level of Grade 1 action is what does it for me.  I'm tossing at my own peril Breaking Lucky, Mr. Z, Prayers for Relief and Hawaakom.  Murphy's Law: One of them will screw us up.
I'm really torn, and while a horse racing fan can be torn, a bettor cannot be.  My base bet (below) isn't even worth me pricing out as I'm never going to make such an investment in a wide open race.

After mulling about a $69 bet $1 Super and a $50 bet $2 Exacta I settled on $1 Tri bet for $20 which I would be OK with taking to $2/$40.  The bet forces me to single Noble Bird and put the rest of my survivor pool under him.  Regardless of the horse I single, the bet construction will be what I settle on.  What do I mean by that?  I'm not sold on Noble Bird and I'm not sure if he's going to get smaller or bigger than 4-1, so if Gun Runner down  to 8-1, perhaps I flip flop Noble Bird and Gun Runner.
Watch the tote and only invest what you are prepared to lose.  My exotic hit rate on Tri's has been hovering around 25% but my IRR is positive, albeit slightly.  That's over many years.  I have had stretches where it is mind numbing horrible and also savant like fantastic. Welcome to horse racing!

To bet or not to bet?  When you sit down with a card, certain races will pop out to you, after you have invested the time and effort to develop the craft, that are much easier marks than this race.  As a horse player, why bet a hard race when you can take advantage of a no brainer race on the same card or a different track.  Don't fall into the trap of betting every race but if you handicap, take the time to build out your bets, review what coulda shoulda woulda when its over, and be honest with yourself.
Have fun with this friends.  Happy Turk(ey) Day.  Turk(s) out!

Friday, November 18, 2016

Handicapper's Corner: Delta Downs Jackpot (G3)

Cool Million on the line in Delta Jackpot

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (GIII), two-year-olds, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 4:45pm CST

The Delta Jackpot may only be a Grade III, but it is one of the richest races on the two-year-old calendar, with a purse of a cool million dollars.  In addition to their share of a $1,000,000 purse, the runners in the Delta Jackpot also have the chance to earn Road to the Kentucky Derby points: 10, 4, 2, and 1, respectively, to the top four finishers.  It has been run since 2002, except for 2005 when Hurricane Rita forced its cancellation. 

Just this spring, it produced its first Classic winner: last year's Jackpot winner, Exaggerator, splashed home a convincing winner of the 2016 Preakness Stakes (GI).  The race has also produced a two-time Breeders' Cup winner: though 2012 Jackpot winner Goldencents found the Classics too long, he proved to be an excellent miler, and won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (GI) in both 2013 and 2014.  From a more local perspective, Birdbirdistheword won the Delta Jackpot in 2006.  Though he never raced in Illinois, he did stand stud in the state after retiring from racing.  His progeny included Timeaday, winner of the 2014 Showtime Deb Stakes at Hawthorne.

The race drew well for morning line favorite GUNNEVERA -- assuming he can take to the smaller track that is Delta Downs, he deserves serious respect.  Gunnevera comes in second off a freshening, and takes a class drop from a fifth-place effort behind Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire last out in the Breeders' Futurity (GI).  A confirmed off-pace type, Gunnevera should be well suited by the setup here.  Line Judge and Hot Sean should be forward, DANGERFIELD should be pushing them along, and both of the Casse pair of THIRSTFORLIFE and OUR STORMIN NORMAN have shown some front-end gas as well.  Gunnevera should be sharper than he was last out, and well tuned to run down the speed.

Behind that, it's price horses who catch this space's eye.

It's always hard to count out GEE MONEY at Delta Downs, and Tip Tap Tapizar gets a long look, as well.  Gerard Melancon returns to the irons with Tip Tap Tapizar after a second-place finish in the local prep, and this start has him second off the lay.  He has tables to turn on Gunnevera, behind whom he was third two starts back in the Saratoga Special (GII).  He also has tables to turn on Line Judge, who beat him in the Jean Lafitte (the local prep) last out.  But, Line Judge will have far more to handle up front.  And, unlike Gunnevera, Tip Tap Tapizar has proven he can handle the Delta course.  On pace, though his maiden win came on the lead, Tip Tap Tapizar came form off the pace to win the Sapling two back, and replicated that style for his second in the local prep.  A reasonable step up in form coming second off the lay, and Tip Tap Tapizar figures at a price.  He is certainly the most attractive option coming from the local prep.

PAT ON THE BACK tries open stakes company for the first time here, as all five of his career starts thus far have come against New York-breds.  But, on speed, he fits with this set.  He has also shown pace versatility.  Last out, he fought early, kicked clear, and scored by daylight in his first time going a mile.  Even though that came on the front, his sprint outings at Saratoga, Finger Lakes, and even Belmont suggest that he has everything he needs to stay engaged and competitive from off the front end as well.  It also stands out who has the call on Pat On the Back: though Robby Albarado rode well-connected J BOYS ECHO in his first two starts, he instead turns up to ride Pat On the Back.


#6 Gunnevera (5/2)

#10 Tip Tap Tapizar (10/1)

#1 Pat On the Back (15/1)

Longshot:  #7 Balandeen (10/1) has shown some speed, but has been able to both fight and rate, depending on the circumstances.  Pace is the biggest question, but there are other things to recommend him at a price.  Balandeen finished second last out in the Street Sense Stakes at a one-turn mile, and being by Bernardini out of Mamma Kimbo (a Grade II winner going a mile and a sixteenth), two turns ought to suit him.  A reasonable step forward in his first try going two turns makes Balandeen a contender.  The humans suit, too.  Trainer Chris Hartman has a solid 17% win rate with runners hitting the road.  And, his last two starts suggest a solid rapport with rider Channing Hill, who ships to Cajun country to ride.

Hadicapper's Corner: Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1)

Jetin’ or Walkin’? – De Francis Memorial Dash

By: Dylan Jarmulowicz, Wire Players

The third busiest racing day of the year in Maryland, and by far the biggest day of the Laurel Park fall meet coincides with the 25th running of The Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash. While racing tends to take a little break after the Breeders’ Cup, this race always boasts a solid field of horses looking to end the year with a graded stake win. This year is no exception; this field of nine is diverse and features three top horses and others who will bring plenty of speed to the party.

Laurel Park Race 9 – Grade III 6 Furlongs - Post Time – 3:35pm (Eastern)
Advance Weather: Sunny, 60s

I mentioned above that there is plenty of speed in this race. #3 POMEROYS’S PACKAGE (20-1), #4 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY (6-1), #2 IVAN FALLUNOVALOT (5-1) and #8 XY JET (9-5) all are speed horses and have run their best races while on the lead. That should ensure a quick early pace for the race. 

 #8 XY JET is the one horse who looks like he needs the lead to win and has to use his high cruising speed to get into the winners circle. After running in Dubai last March, he was giving a lengthy vacation and came back to work last month at Belmont Park, running a disappointing fifth at short odds. He clearly needed a race after the almost seven month layoff. He is a good horse but with so much speed in this race, he may be up against it again in this spot and at a short price, he can beat me.

The other speed horse that should take some money is #2 IVAN FALLUNOVALOT. Rider Calvin Borel jumps back aboard after Lindy Wade rode him to consecutive victories at Remington Park. Borel has had a decent year since returning to the saddle after a brief retirement but he’s never been a favorite jockey of mine and combine that with being up against it tactically in this race, I do not like his chances to win.

My play will be #9 STALLWALKIN’ DUDE (5/2). This veteran horse should be in the perfect spot for trainer David Jacobsen. He likes to come from off the pace, has beaten rivals in the race previously and he has run some of his best races in his last four efforts including two stakes wins (one graded stake). He usually gets hug out wide and has overcome it before so the outside post isn’t much of a concern. I think he is the best bet of the day anywhere!   

My Plays:
Win: #9
Exacta: 9/4,5
Trifecta: 9/4,5,8/4,5,7,8

Good Luck!