ThoroFan Racing Analysts' 2016 Picks
The
collective minds of ThoroFan's racing analysts offer their top two picks plus their longshot bomb for the
Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Classic.
Additionally,
the handicappers preview other races on the card, starting with tomorrow’s Marathon
Stakes (G2).
Check back on FRIDAY for reviews and race selections of the Juvenile
Fillies, Juvenile Colts, Breeders’ Cup Turf and Breeders’ Cup Mile.
2016
BC DISTAFF
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Handicapper
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First
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Second
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Longshot
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Michael
Amo
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Stellar
Wind
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Forever
Unbridled
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Curalina
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Songbird
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Stellar
Wind
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I’m a
Chatterbox
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John
Caro
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Songbird
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Stellar
Wind
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Forever
Unbridled
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Stellar
Wind
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Songbird
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I’m a
Chatterbox
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Songbird
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Stellar
Wind
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Curalina
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|
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Stellar
Wind
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Beholder
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Forever
Unbridled
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Stellar
Wind
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Songbird
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Corona
Del Inca
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2016
BC CLASSIC
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Handicapper
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First
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Second
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Longshot
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Michael
Amo
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Frosted
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California
Chrome
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Hopportunity
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Nick
Costa
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John
Caro
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California
Chrome
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Frosted
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Melatonin
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Reinier
Macatangay
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California
Chrome
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Arrogate
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Keen
Ice
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Robert
Marks
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Arrogate
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California
Chrome
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Shaman
Ghost
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Nicolle
Neulist
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California
Chrome
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Arrogate
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Shaman
Ghost
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Laurie
Ross
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California
Chrome
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Hopportunity
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Effinex
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ThoroFan S. Florida Chapter Member’s
thoughts:
Marathon Stakes (GII), three-year-olds and up, one and three
quarters miles over the dirt, post time 12:35pm PDT
By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off
Though the Marathon has not carried the
imprimatur of the Breeders’ Cup since 2013, the fourteen-furlong gallop over
the dirt maintains its Grade II status as well as its spot on the Breeders’ Cup
Friday card. This year’s edition drew a field of nine runners to compete
for a $200,000 purse. As is typical for the Marathon, that field includes
both runners well proven at a stayer’s distance as well as ones whose
connections are trying them at such a trip.
Melmich is well proven going long, and this
space will side with the Canadian raider. He has a win at the same mile
and three quarters distance as this race, in last year’s Valedictory Stakes
(GIII - CAN) at Woodbine. That came on polytrack, and most of his career
form has come over synthetic surfaces. But, Melmich acquitted himself
well last out in the Temperence Hill Invitational at Belmont, his first try
over conventional dirt. That day, he finished second beaten three lengths
by Scuba. He was gaining, but the extra furlong should suit the
long-winded Melmich beautifully. Melmich is fast enough, has stamina to
spare, and has the versatility to set the fractions or rally from off of them.
With several in this field who can show speed but do not need it, it
helps that regular rider Eurico Rosa Da Silva has the versatility to read the
pace as it unfolds and depend on Melmich no matter where he has to put him.
Scuba beat Melmich last out in the
Temperence Hill. That thirteen-furlong trip was the longest that Scuba
had covered to date; he won by daylight, though Melmich was closing up ground.
Scuba has blossomed since stretching out to longer distances; before the
Temperence Hill, Scuba scored in the mile and a half Greenwood Cup at Parx.
Rider Kendrick Carmouche has been aboard for both of those victories; he
returns today. Scuba will be forwardly placed, though can also rate if he
needs, and stay interested if he does not make the top. Scuba also hails
from the barn of Brendan Walsh: a trainer who already has a Marathon Stakes
(GII) victory two years ago with Cary Street. Whether he can stay the
extra half-furlong better than Melmich is the big question, but Scuba has hit
the board in each of his last twelve starts, and has blossomed as Walsh has
stretched him out longer.
The third slot was a close call between
Hard Aces and Quick Casablanca. Quick Casablanca has a win going fourteen
furlongs on grass, and has hit the board in four of five starts over fast dirt.
But, he has not raced since mid-August, and trainer Ron McAnally is not
the best first-off-the-lay. Instead, the slight edge goes to Hard Aces.
His connections have been pointing him here, and he gets a huge class
drop from the likes of California Chrome in his last two starts. Three
back, he won the Cougar II (GIII) at Del Mar, a mile and a half dirt test.
Hard Aces has not yet stretched to a mile and three quarters, but has been
working long enough to suggest that John Sadler is building his fitness.
And, his class stands out.
Selections:
#4 Melmich (2/1)
#1 Scuba (5/2)
#8 Hard Aces (4/1)
Longshot: Like Scuba, #3 Estrechada
(12/1) comes from a barn proven in this race. She is trained by
Guillermo Frenkel-Santillan, the same conditioner who brought Calidoscopio from
Argentina to the United States to win the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Marathon.
She keeps Pablo Falero, her frequent rider in Argentina. And,
Estrechada has some solid form going (very) long on dirt. She won at a
mile and nine sixteenths last November at Palermo, and a second at the same
distance there the next month. Though she is a mare facing boys, she typically
faced boys in Argentina as well. Estrechada has some versatility in terms
of pace, as well: she can go to the front, stalk the pace, or rally from
midpack. She does have a few questions around her: this will be a class
test for her, and she has not raced since June. But, Estrechada has been
working at Santa Anita since September, and should be a good enough price to
bet she can take the class rise.
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