Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Mother Goose Stakes (G2)

Risk and reward in the Mother Goose Stakes

By: The Turk

 

Xigera:  Photo credit Coady Photography (thank you)

 Welcome friends to The Turk Blog.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  

I've been on a Handicappers Holiday since late August.  Just like the horses need to go the the farm and freshen up, I find that my handicapping is better when I take some time away. 

 

 I've already started Breeders' Cup video preparation so this weekend is a good time for me to start looking at past performances again, and The Mother Goose at Belmont at the Big A is a good handicapping challenge for me.  Why?  These runners, most of who are Breeders' Cup eligible, most likely didn't peak well enough to earn a place on World Championship weekend.  

 

It doesn't mean they are bad horses, it's just that their current condition wasn't where it needed to be in some of the key races in August, September and early October.  

 

I count five graded stakes win amongst the seven horses, a G1, a G2 and three G3.  There is a lot to prove from the classiest of runners here, yes I'm looking at the $435,000 purchase of Peak Popularity, the $625,000 Occult, the $225,000 Julia Shining and the $190,000 Xigera.  

 

I also think it's ok at this time of the year to start and  second guess the tactics of horses having underwhelming seasons who are in the barns of the mega trainers.  Two Browns and a Pletcher here that fit that description,  and I think it's fair game to question the choices made in their three year old campaigns. 

 

I'm of the mind that owners should not be so differential to the Big Barns and get some more personalized attention with smaller outfits, but I'm just a handicapper and a fan of this game for the better part of 40 years, what do I know.  

Anyways, my other rule as a handicapper is to not worry about what runners aren't here, or what the field's overall quality is, just handicap what's on the paper and what you see in the video.  Let's get after it!

The weather should be beautiful and I'd expect the track to be fast, but check here for scratches, changes and track condition.   

Let's start with video of  the runner's last starts.  

The Cotillin G1:  1 1/16 miles over slop at PARX;  23 September 2023; Foggy Night/1, Occult/5, Defining Purpose/7 

Seneca Overnight Race 9 23 September 2023:  1 1/16 on Fast Dirt

Allowance $115K N1X; SAR 1 1/4 miles off turf sloppy dirt:  Peak Popularity/2

The Alabama G1;  SAR 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt; Julia Shining/3  Defining Purpose/7

The Gallant Bloom G2:  BEL Big A; 1 October 2023 6.5F Fast Dirt; Undervalued Asset/4

I don't think this was an overly difficult field to handicap on paper, but the video was an exercise in trying to see potential that hasn't translated into performance. 

Xigera is the most impressive to me.  In a recent interview with the NYRA press, trainer Bauer said "...we made sure the work two out (from the Breeders' Cup) was a good one and we were still trying to decide if we were going to fly out to California.  We talked in circles about it and decided that maybe the best thing at the moment would be to get her a graded black type win, if we can."  That seems like a logical and reasonable approach and she comes in with by far the most impressive last race out.  Exceptional early speed, this versatile Turf and Dirt runner comes to NY after training up exceptionally well.  Heavy chalk. 

Defining Purpose cannot be overlooked.  A good place at 14-1 odds in The Alabama before a flat Cotillion in the slop at Parx last time out and a Grade 1 winner at 20-1 at KEE and a Grade 3 winner in the Indiana Oaks.    McPeek/Alvarado are not a very successful pairing.  Will keep pace early and possibly be better late. 

Occult is a bit of a wild card.  Very classy, Brown/I. Ortiz combo sizzles, but just hasn't found her defining moment as of yet.  Destroyed a pretty weak Monmouth Oaks field for a Grade 3 win at $1.40-1 odds.  Rallied, but didn't seem to ever really stretch in the slop of the Cotillion.  Went off at 27-1 in the Acorn at Belmont and finished a so-so Place to Pretty Mischievous.  What do I know, but maybe a different barn than Brown's would be a better place for her.  Dangerous, but hard to depend on the danger.  

I have similar thoughts on Julia Shining: I am no pedigree expert but the daughter of Curlin and Dreaming of Julia  is having what can only be described as a disastrous 3 YO campaign after winning a Grade 2 at Aqueduct in the slop last December.  Two Place finishes, a freshening up and a terrible 57 lengths back beat down at $5.30-1 odds in the Alabama.  The works have been steady since mid September and Castellano gets the mount from Saez.  Dart throw as to which filly shows up.

Undervalued Asset is another Brown runner and makes the sprint to route jump, stretching out from the 6.5 f of her last race.  I'm not sure why she hasn't run past 8f yet, but what do I know, especially with 1 win in 6 tries this year and 3 Place finishes where she was moving forward at the wire.  

So what do I do with all this?  I like Xigera a lot and toyed with making her shorter than 7-5 (42%)  in my fair odds chart.  I also have no interest in betting her if her odds shorten from her Morning Line of 6-5.  I'm thinking something along the lines of $2 Exacta 7-5-3-4 OVER 6 for $8.  I like the risk/reward of putting the heavy chalk in the Place spot but I think if this race is run ten times she wins maybe 5 times and the Bauer team gets rewarded for their patient approach.  

Have fun friends!  Turk Out

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Raven Run Stakes (G2)

 Alva Starr could fly away in Raven Run

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $350,000 Grade Two Raven Run attracted a field of nine 3-year-old fillies who will travel seven furlongs over Keeneland's main track. 

It's a quick turnaround to the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, so we may not see the winner take on her elders for the first time in the Grade 1 contest. However, Shamrock Rose pulled off the double in 2018 and was crowned Champion Female Sprinter.

Saturday will be partly cloudy, but the track should be fast. The Raven Run is carded as race 9 of ten with a 5:16 PM ET post time.

 

Let's take a look at the top contenders and live longshots.

7. Alva Starr (2-1) towers above the rest as the runaway 8 ¾ winner of the  Prioress Stakes (G2). Additionally, the Brett A. Brinkman trainee owns the only triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings in the field and earned them in her last two starts. Alva Starr is trying seven furlongs for the first time, but the pacesetter has :21 and change early speed and can carry it. She'll be tough to beat. Win contender.

4.   Vahva (3-1) is one of two fillies in the Raven Run with a victory at seven furlongs. She was last seen galloping home a 1 ¼ length winner in the seven-furlong  Charles Town Oaks (G3). This pace presser conditioned by Cherie DeVaux doesn't like to sit too far off the pace and has hit the board in seven of nine lifetime; however, she's never won consecutive races. Exotics.

9. Ancient Peace (10-1) placed second in the 1 1/16 mile Remington Park Oaks (G3) in her last start. It was her first start off the layoff and initial outing with her new trainer, Brian Lynch. It wasn't a bad effort, as she got a little tired and couldn't sustain her speed on the front end. War Front's daughter only wins when she's on the lead, and she hasn't shown the speed to stay with the top runners in this field. However, she should have the conditioning to hold on for a minor award. Exotics.

6. Dazzling Blue (KY) (9-2) won her first three starts as a pacesetter but was a runner-up both times she chased the pace. She finished third, 11 lengths behind Alva Star in the Prioress, but bested Vahva by 1 ½ lengths in the Victory Ride (G3). The Brad Cox trainee has the zip to run with Alva Star early if she's allowed to revert to her pacesetting style. Florent Geroux won with her as a pacesetter, so perhaps we'll see a duel on the front end. By Into Mischief, out of a stakes-winning daughter of Curlin, Dazzling Blue should have no issues carrying her speed. The only knock against her is that her late-pace figures are low. Lower exotics.

8. Lady Radler (5-1) won three of her last four starts, including the Dogwood Stakes (G3). She captured the seven-furlong Dogwood by 2 ¾ lengths despite being keyed up and tugging hard after checking early in the race. The   Michael Campbell trainee's speed ratings are inconsistent, and her late-pace figures are middling. Still, she has tactical speed and is worth an include for a lower exotic placing.

3. Nom de Plume (20-1) has run only three times and is a neck shy of being undefeated over turf and Tapeta. Although the Paulo Lobo trainee's speed ratings are in the 80's, she's improved in each start, and her late-pace figures fit with the upper echelon. Nom de Plume gets her first shot over dirt, but Uncle Mo's daughter should handle it just fine since her half-siblings win on dirt and her second dam is Personal Ensign (G1) heroine Shadow Cast. Paco Lopez's charges hit the board in 21% of stakes at Keeneland. One to consider for a longshot exotic play.

2. Simply Stated (10-1) steps into the "A" league after dominating at Penn National and  Presque Isle. Not a ringing endorsement, but she's won five of seven starts, and her speed ratings fit with this group. The Todd Beattie trainee gets the services of Luis Saez, who hits the board 46% of the time in sprints at Keeneland. Yes, she's taking a big class jump, but Simply Stated likes to win. One to consider for a longshot exotic play.

1. Lilly Poo (20-1) hasn't seen the winner's circle since April. The one-run closer was bested nine lengths by Vahva in her last start. Can't recommend.

5. Apple Picker (15-1) captured the Weather Vane Stakes at Pimlico in her last start. She either wins or finishes out of the money; there's no in-between with her. The Brittany Russell trainee struggles against optional claimers, and I don't see her being competitive in the Raven Run. Can't recommend.

 

Analysis

Nine of the last ten Raven Run heroines won or placed in their prep, and only one didn't prep in a stakes. Only two winners had a pacesetting style, closers won half the time, and only three favorites won.

While Alva Starr doesn't tick all the boxes for the historic winning profile, she's head and withers above this group. If she tosses a clunker or has to fight through fast fractions, Vahva can take advantage with her off-the-pace style. Nom de Plume also has tactical speed and is a promising young filly from a good family.

7. Alva Starr (2-1)

4.   Vahva (3-1)

3.  Nom de Plume (20-1)

6. Dazzling Blue (KY) (9-2)

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Sands Point Stakes (G2)

 Handicapping the Sands Point for turf or dirt?

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan handicapper

A “Baker’s Dozen” of 3-year-old fillies is scheduled to race 9 Furlongs on the turf on Saturday in the Sands Point Stakes (GII) for a share of the $200,000 purse.

The main concern in handicapping the race is the 70% change of rain at race time. It is questionable if the race will remain on the grass. NYRA expecting heavy rain on Saturday night and Sunday have moved stakes races from Subday to next week. It seems they are not concerned about rain on Saturday.

Therefore, we are assuming it will stay on the turf, but will suggest horses that may do well on the off track.

Let’s look at the field.

 Soviet Excess -ran solidly in grade 2 company, showing improvement with ability on turf or dirt. Contender.

Quarrel –trying grade 2 for first time. May not be fast enough. Can run well on turf and dirt. Exotic play

Leave No Trace – out of form the last two races in 2023. Not sure if she will recover to her 2022 form. Would do better if the race is switched to the dirt. Not in this race.

Be Your Best (IRE)--performed well at grade 0ne level. Seems in good form for this race. Needs the race to remain on the turf to win. Contender if on turf.

Neecie Marie—ran her best race at PARX 2 back. Last over Aqueduct turf was not as good. If she returns to PARX form and race remains on the turf could be an Exotic play.

Root Cause—consistent runner for Chad Brown in turf races. Trying grade two for the first time. Best chance to be in the money if remains on the turf. Exotic play.

Eternal Hope (IRE)—showed she likes a firm Aqueduct turf course. Rain will affect her performance. Soft turf or muddy main will diminish her chances. Not sure?

Highland Grace—paired her last three in form. First grade 2. May be asking too much for her. Not today.

Stephanie ‘s Charm—has tried grade 2 once with little success. Eight tries in 2023 without a win. Pass on her chances.

Alpha Bella—consistent runner for Todd Pletcher. May not be fast enough to compete. Could be seen on lower end of Exotic plays.

Essaouira—MTO

Amanda’s Folly—MTO

Ichiban—MTO

 

Selections:

Assuming the race remains on the turf here are my top four selections:

TURF:

  4.  Be Your Best (7-2)

     1.  Soviet Excess (4-1)

    10.  Alpha Bella (8-1)

 7.  Eternal Hope (5-2)

 

If on DIRT, consider these:

 3.  Leave No Trace (15-1)

10. Essaouira (5-2)

  1. Soviet Excess (7-2)

13. Ichiban  (2-1)

 

Good luck, but keep the day job!