Friday, June 30, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: United Nations Stakes (G1)

International Cast Set for United Nations Stakes


By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman




With representatives from France, German, Canada, Ireland and Kentucky, this grade one stakes race with a $300,000 purse qualifies to hold the name United Nations Stakes---sort of. All except two have had experience at the Grade One level – Itsinthepost (#2) and Lucky Lindy (#9). However, only one, Beach Patrol (#1) has been successful at the grade one level, winning the 2016 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park.

Weather forecast for Monmouth Park is a little unstable with intermittent thunderstorms predicted throughout the day. The turf may be a little soft which should be considered in handicapping the race. Pace of the race may be a little hot, however this may be mitigated by the wet going.

 Let’s take a look at the field to see if Beach Patrol has any competition.

     1.   Beach Patrol (Lemon Drop Kid) comes off four consecutive Grade One efforts with all except one in the money. Distance should fit and he is bred for a yielding course. He appears to be the early, legitimate speed in the race. With Chad Brown’s focus on turf racing you have to respect this horse.

     2.   Itsinthepost (FR) (American Post) is the French bred who has been states-side for a good part of his career. This will be his first attempt at grade one company. His consistent Beyer figures suggest he might be a contender from a tactical position.

    3.   Bigger Picture (Badge of Silver) is returning for another chance at the United Nations. His performance since last year has markedly improved. His comparative Morning Line odds highlight that. Looking at his last three races he seems to be the one most comfortable with the distance. Last race proved he does not mind soft going.

     4.   Closing Bell (Tapit) has shown gradual improvement since returning from Australian racing. Mott has him back and after the last race he looks like he is ready for the step up, however not this large of a one.

    5.   Messi (GER) (New Approach) has been preparing at Fair Hills for conditioner Graham Motion. The layoff shouldn’t be a problem. Seems to like being forwardly placed and may push Beach Patrol.

    6.   Liam the Charmer (Smart Strike) is out-classed but likes the longer going and will be running late. Perhaps his best chance is for a piece of the exotics.

    7.   Can’thelpbelieving (IRE) (Duke of Marmalade) ran a nice race in the Man O’ War Stakes last year at Saratoga against Wake Forest and Money Multiplier. This second entry for Motion may sit back and watch Beach Patrol and Messi duke it out and come fast at the end. Dangerous with enough early speed to be poised to move up in the stretch.

    8.   Oscar Nominated (Kitten’s Joy) ran a splendid race in the Turf Classic against Beach Patrol which was determined by Daily Racing Form to be a Key race with 3 of the 9 starters winning their next time out. Fast enough to be in contention, especially in the exotics. Fair price.

    9.   Lucky Lindy (Harlan’ Holiday) needs a lot of luck to compete against this field.


The race looks on paper to be a race that Chad Brown’s Beach Patrol should win. However, Graham Motion has a one-two-punch with the front runner Messi (GER) and the tactical speedster Can’thelpbelieving. The other two that are of interest are Bigger Picture, a distance specialist and Oscar Nominated who made name with his performance in the Turf Classic; both are trained by Michael Maker.


It looks like Beach Patrol (5-2) will be pushed by the German entry Messi (12-1) and maybe Oscar Nominated (5-1). This should end with an exciting stretch run to the wire. The two who will benefit from this pace scenario are Bigger Picture (4-1) and Can’thelpbelieving (8-1). Given the shape of this race, it is difficult to back Beach Patrol at low odds.The value play lies with one of the others.

Here is how I see the finish:
     1.   Bigger Picture (#3)
     2.   Beach Patrol (#1)
     3.   Can’thelpbelieving (#7)
     4.   Oscar Nominated (#8)

My Handigamble is:
$5 Exacta Box ---1,3,7------$30
$1 Trifecta Box –1,3,7,8 ----$24
$40 to Place on #3 ----------$40
Six dollars remaining for a celebratory cold one.

Good Luck, but keep the day job!

Handicapper's Corner: Queen's Plate Stakes

Will a Filly Capture the Queen's Plate?


By: Nick Costa, Trackside With Trackman


Horse racing fans and Canada’s best 3-year-olds are gearing up for the 158th running of the Queen's Plate, the country's oldest and most prestigious race for thoroughbreds, and North America’s longest continuously run race, taking place Sunday at Toronto's Woodbine Racetrack.


Founded in 1860, this 1 1/4-mile-long race contested on the Polytrack, is only open to three-year-old’s who were foaled in Canada, and this year's edition attracted a field of thirteen, including fillies Holy Helena and Inflexibility, the first and third place finishers respectively from the Woodbine Oaks. The former was installed as the morning line favorite following the post draw. Also in the field, is Queen's Plate winter book favorite, Tiz A Slam, fourth last out in the Plate Trial, and trained by 8-time Plate winning trainer Roger Attfield.

Besides Attfield, the race features three additional trainers who have combined for 5 Plate wins, as well as six jockeys totaling 8 wins, with Eurico Rosa da Silva and Patrick Husbands having two each.

The Queen’s Plate is the first race in the Canadian Triple Crown series. The second and final races are the Prince of Wales Stakes in Fort Erie, Ontario, and the Breeders’ Stakes back at Woodbine in Toronto. 

Two years ago, when American Pharoah won the American Triple Crown, it ended a 37-year drought in the United States. For Canada, the wait hasn't been as severe, but its still been a notable period-of-time since 2003 when Wando last accomplished the feat.

Who will take home the prize this year? Let's have a look at each contestant from the rail out for this $1 million 10-furlong test.

PP - HORSE - Jockey/Trainer - ML Odds

1-CHANNEL MAKER - Hernandez/Mott - 4-1--Graduated in style when breaking his maiden in the Vandal Stakes last summer in just his second start, winning with front-running effort after shrugging off early challenges. After his first start in 2017, an eighth-place finish at Gulfstream, he was transferred into his current barn. Under Mott, this son of English Channel suffered a couple of troubled trips at Keeneland, but still ran quite well. Proven talent on turf finished second in his first ever start on Tapeta last out in the Marine Stakes after looming a major threat to the outside. He drew to within a head of the leader at the stretch call and the two horses separated themselves from the rest of the field. However, down the lane, the leader and eventual winner turned that narrow advantage into a two-length margin at the wire. Serious contender.

2-GUY CABALLERO - Ortiz/Phillips - 10-1--This gelding by Quality Road has a knack for closing well in the stretch. Such was the case in his seasonal debut against a strong allowance field where he got motoring late to secure second place. Off that seven- furlong sprint, he was stretched out in distance for the Plate Trial, and this lightly raced runner who was a 20-1 longshot in a field of six rallied from last place against fractions that did not compliment his closing style to get up to win in the final strides by a half-length. As a 2-year old, he showed ability with a third-place finish in the Display Stakes that closed out his juvenile campaign. Comes in fresh and on the improve, and gets an extra furlong of real estate.

3-HOLY HELENA - Contreras/Jerkens - 3-1--After her winning performance in the Woodbine Oaks, Ghostzapper filly is well deserving of this appearance. Her final time for the 9-furlongs was more than a full second faster than the winner of the Plate Trial a couple of races before on the card. She made her debut in New York in April and was runner-up that day, but broke her maiden impressively in a determined effort second time out. Off that score, she was highly touted when shipping up for the Oaks, so much so, that she was made the ML favorite for that race. However, the betting crowd thought otherwise and foolishly let her slip away at 6-1 odds, and then watched her rally confidently from mid-pack behind a strong pace for a going away 1-length win. Generally, fillies who win big in the Oaks are extremely tough in the Plate, and this gal is surging upward quickly.

4-SPIRIT of CALEDON - Lermyte/Parente - 50-1--Although it came in start number six, breaking maiden ranks is the high-water mark thus far for this horse. Last time out, against non-winner allowance company, he raced mid-pack before launching a bid around the far turn and into the lane, but his late run came up short and he finished third. Connections had to pay a $25,000 supplemental fee to run this Mike Fox gelding in Canada's premier race. Don't see this one being any sort of factor.

5-INFLEXIBILTY - Castellano/Brown - 10-1--From the same connections as recent G1 Preakness Stakes winner Cloud Computing, this gal invaded from New York for the Woodbine Oaks and was anointed the 5-2 betting favorite. She was positioned up close early and had a good stalking trip, but the daughter of Scat Daddy, who was making her debut over the polytrack surface, was caught behind the tiring leaders and was shuffled back to mid-pack by the three-quarter marker before getting herself off the rail and untracked. Once clear, she rallied between horses through the stretch for a third-place finish, but six lengths behind the runner-up horse. The Oaks was just her third lifetime start following a pair of grass efforts at Gulfstream and Belmont which resulted in a second-place showing and a win, respectively. The barn is highly capable wherever it goes, and they have an improving and dangerous racehorse with this filly.

6-KING AND HIS COURT - Boulanger/Casse - 5-1--Sovereign Award champion 2-year-old from last year is the most experienced runner in the field with thirteen career starts, including four victories and nine in-the-money placings. Other than his two races away from his home base of Woodbine, which came during the winter/spring in a pair of G3 Stakes on the U.S. Triple Crown trail, resulting in consecutive lackluster off-the-board finishes, this son of Court Vision has been ultra-consistent and enters here off a rail skimming runner-up finish in the Plate Trial. LOVES Woodbine, winning the Coronation Futurity and Display Stakes as a juvenile, in addition to his dominant win in the Wando two starts back. If he displays his strong late kick, which seemed to be absent last race, he's certainly a huge threat to win.

7-STATE OF HONOR - Husbands/Casse - 8-1--Made all the pace to the halfway point in the Kentucky Derby, but simply couldn't keep the momentum going in the grueling 1 1/4-mile G1 event. Last time out in the Plate Trial, he again took control of the early lead and held it into the stretch before succumbing late. Colt has kept a busy campaign racing once a month since January, and has been graded stakes placed multiple times, including runner-up in the G1 Florida Derby behind the eventual Kentucky Derby winner. Despite those accolades, the son of To Honor and Serve remains just a maiden winner through a dozen starts, but that lone win came over this surface last October.

8-MALIBU SECRET - Garcia/Pierce - 20-1--Well regarded and improving Malibu Moon colt, owned by Sam-Son farm, winners of this Canadian classic five times, enters the Queen's Plate with just three races on his resume. The dark bay colt debuted with a runner-up finish in the Vandal Stakes on the turf in his lone juvenile race here last summer. Suffered a minor shin injury following that start and went to the sidelines for eight and a half months. Upon his return in maiden allowance company, he rallied swiftly from eighth-place to first to earn his graduation. Last time out in the Marine Stakes, which marked his stakes and two-turn debut, he had a bit of stretch trouble when finishing third, but his overall performance was encouraging enough to earn a start in here. Has more speed than he's shown and carries plenty of potential. Runs third time off the layoff, often a horse's best, so he cannot be dismissed.

9-MEGAGRAY - Campbell/Keogh - 30-1--Langfuhr colt is lightly raced with just four starts. Broke his maiden second time out last year and then following an eight-month layoff, he returned with a good third-place finish in his seasonal debut in the Wando Stakes behind a pair of top Plate contenders after attending the early pace. Three weeks late in the Marine Stakes, he was in the mix behind horses as they rounded the far turn, but could only chase down the stretch as the top two finishers pulled away, and he ended up a distant fourth. Will need a career best effort to get it done.

10-VAUGHN - Callaghan/Mattine - 50-1--A late addition to the lineup, this colt by City Zip has just two starts on his resume. It was an inauspicious beginning to the races for this colt as he practically walked out of the gate in his debut. He trailed the field, but stayed on the inside all the way into the stretch and passed tiring horses for a seventh- place finish. Two weeks later, going 8.5 furlongs over a turf course listed as yielding, the result was a much-improved effort. He broke alertly, stalked the leader from just off the pace, made a strong bid approaching the end of the turn to get within a half-length of the front, then ran evenly through the lane in a third-place finish. Unlikely to succeed in this spot as only one maiden has ever won the Queen's Plate (Scatter the Gold in 2000).

11-AURORA WAY - Leparoux/Simon - 6-1--A few minor issues and a fear of the starting gate prevented this Giant's Causeway colt from racing as a juvenile. However, when those problems that hindered him were finally overcome, he appeared for his racing debut the day before the Plate Trial, and what an impressive showing it was. He raced in mid-pack behind slow fractions before commencing his bid approaching the far turn. He swept four-wide and upon took a short lead at the top of the lane, he then opened up on his rivals to win comfortably by four lengths at the wire. The Plate has always been the target for this runner, and despite his late start to the races and the lack of experience against more seasoned rivals, his connections are hoping the talent this colt possesses can be the equalizer.

12-TIZ A SLAM - Rosa da Silva/Attfield - 10-1--Son of Tiznow was one of the better juveniles locally last season winning three of four starts, including a confident score in the Cup and Saucer Stakes over the Woodbine lawn. This year as a sophomore, he's on a three-race losing skid. Finished fifth in a close effort in his opener down at Tampa, then returned home to be a game second as the heavy favorite in the Wando Stakes. In the Plate Trial, he stayed within striking distance, but then lost ground around the final turn and appeared to be hampered with no racing room. Once the field straighten away, he then managed to finish up nicely along the inside to be beaten less than 2-lengths. It was a bit of a strange trip, but nonetheless it still served as a useful prep. Talented runner would give Attfield a record ninth Queen's Plate win should he take this Canadian Classic. Is a major player and looms perhaps the one to beat.

13-WATCH ME STRUT - Moran/Phillips - 30-1--In his initial try around two-turns last month, he was racing ninth and last with a quarter-mile remaining before kicking into overdrive, circling widest on the far turn and zipping past his eight rivals to score a one-and-a-half length victory in non-winner allowance company. That was the gelding's third win from five starts. He notched two wins and a third-place effort last year from his three juvenile starts before being put away. The son of Strut the Stage lost all chance when he stumbled and bumped into a rival at the start in his 2017 opener back in early May. Look for him to be trying to make an impact late.


Analysis:
This is always an interesting and difficult race to handicap as it is run at a mile and a quarter like the Kentucky Derby. And once again, we're dealing with the same uncharted territory of horses having never before competed at the distance. One just doesn't know with any certainty that a horse can get the 10-furlong distance until it is proven. Success in the preliminary races at middle distances (1 1/16 and 1 1/8) is not enough to predict how a 3-yr old will perform at a mile and a quarter. The additional distance of ground that needs to be covered is what separates the contenders from the pretenders. The race is won or lost in the last furlong.

What to do? I'm not an expert on thoroughbred pedigrees, but I find that spending a little bit of time perusing them can let you know which horses have the inherent genetic ability and plenty of stamina in their blood to get the distance, and which ones could be challenged by the grueling mile and a quarter. 

In addition, when handicapping the Plate, two-year old experience, which is critical for KY Derby candidates, has only mild importance here, simply because the Plate is contested later in the year than the Derby. What is more important to consider is that a horse has experience at a two-turn distance. 

Winning these races isn't necessary, but running well in the most recent preps is usually a requirement.

Pedigree, plus performance gets the prize. 

Based on pedigree, the horses listed below (alphabetically) grade out best for me in terms of being bred to handle the 10-furlongs and I believe one of them will be the likely winner.


Channel Maker
Inflexibility
Malibu Secret
Tiz A Slam


Play:
I will let the odds at post time dictate as to which horse(s) I will back to win.
Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!
 

Handicapper's Corner: Princess Rooney Stakes (G2)

Curlin's Approval Horse for Course in Princess Rooney

By: Jeffrey Cobb, S. FL ThoroFan Member


On Saturday, July 1st the Summit of Speed will be held at Gulfstream Park.  The Summit of Speed was once a Summertime staple of Calder Race Course. Now that CRC is out of the horse racing business, the Summit has moved 5 miles east.


The weather Saturday is predicted to be partly cloudy with a chance of a passing morning shower.  If the forecast is true, the track should be dry and fast by race time.  Of course, this is South Florida, and it is officially Summer, so rain at any time is always possible. The good news is that GP does a good job of keeping their eye on the radar and sealing the track before any serious rain occurs.

The track at the 7-furlong distance plays fair with respect to post position. Like most North American tracks, it tends to favor speed; however, given the right pace scenario, closers do have a chance.

Here is the field.

PP 1 Money Or Love (30-1): a 5 year old mare trained by Anthony Russo and ridden by Ramsey Zimmerman. Money Or Love ran poorly last out in the 100k Ginger Punch, but that race was on turf and 8.5 furlongs. At 0 for 6 on grass, I'm guessing that is not Money Or Love's surface. The race before was 7f on the main track was the100k state bred Musical Romance.  Money Or Love took the prize in that race.  Overall Money Or Love appears to be a little too slow for others in the field might be able to get a piece of a vertical exotic so use underneath in supers and trifectas.

PP 2 Birdatthewire (6-1): Thomas Procter, trainer and Van Dyke Drayden in the saddle. Bird is shipping in from Presque Isle Downs in Erie, Pa. The Bird recovered from a slow start at Churchill in November to get up for 2nd in the Grade 2 Chilukki stakes is 2 for 5 at the distance and always in the money in 4 tries at GP with two wins including a 3rd place finish in last year’s edition of the Princess Rooney. Birdatthewire is one of those teaser horsedswho always seems to be a little late at the wire. Contender for a minor prize, nothing more.

PP 3 Dearest (4-1): Gilberto Zerpa, trainer and Emisael Jaramillo the jockey. There is a lot to like about Dearest. She won the G3 Sugar Swirl two back and finished 3rd a half-length behind Distinta (4) and Wheatfield (5) last out. Dearest likes to win (8-5-1-2), likes GP (6-4-0-2), and the distance (3-2-0-1). Jaramillo is a good fit for the filly. Downside is her last race was a step slower than her usual. However, Dearest has been freshened and Zerpa is 27% off > 90 days rest. In addition, Jaramillo wins for Zerpa at a 50% rate in the last 60 days (10 times out and 5 wins). If can regain her previous form, she will be right there at the wire.

PP 4 Distinta (8-1): Trained by Victor Barboza, Jr. and ridden by Edgard Zayas. Distinta beat Dearest (3) and Wheatfield (5) last out, yet her ML odds are twice those of Dearest. Let me tell you why. Dearest is 5 wins in 8 tries and Distinta is 4 wins in 22 tries. Distinta's Brisnet speed figures are, on average not good enough to win this race and usually only good enough for a minor prize. A mare who likes to finish 2nd. Maybe use underneath.

PP 5 Wheatfield (20-1): Trained by Nick Zito and piloted by C. J. McMahon. Wheatfield has been struggling lately. Coming down from Belmont, she's been keeping pretty good company but has been unable to find the winner's circle this year. Wheatfield finished 2nd in 1 try at GP and has not won in 3 tries at the distance.  I think I will look elsewhere.

PP 6 Patriotic Diamond (12-1): Trained by Patrick (the pit viper) Biancone and ridden by Cornelio Velasquez. PD is has not yet cleared on winners of 1 other than.... yet is lined at only 12-1. Explain that to me. 12-1 is too short. Next.

PP 7 Curlin's Approval (9-2): Trained by Martin Wolfson and ridden by Luis Saez.  There was a time when this would be Marty Wolfson's day and he might have 2 or 3 entries in this race and a couple of others.  At one time Wolfson was a premier South Florida trainer, but he has been quiet the last couple of years. Curlin's Approval has had good results at GP (8-5-1-0) and the distance (5-2-0-0). Saez is a very capable rider who can get his mount home if he's got the horse. Curlin's Approval has won a couple of nice races here, but her last two indicate that she may be cycling down. She's had a bit of a rest and good recent works suggesting she may be ready to return to her strong form. I think, 9-2 may be a little light, but if the public goes where I think the will, I could be taking a long hard look at Curlin's Approval.

PP 8 Lightstream (7-2): Trained by Brian Lynch and ridden by Hall of Famer Javier Castellano. The morning line makes Lightstream the favorite; however, I am not a fan of horses shipping into hot and humid South Florida in the Summer. Lightstream has won at GP, but that was her maiden win.  If Brisnet speed figures are to be believed, it was also her best and she has yet to run back to that maiden figure.  In spite of that failure, Lightstream still has a couple of graded stakes wins and must be regarded as a contender.  I think we can take a stand against this one for the top prize. Lightstream will likely be less than 7-2 at post time, and will make it easier to play against her. Will look at her in the walking ring and post parade to see how she's adapting to the climate.

PP 9 More Than a Party (20-1): Trained by Edwin T. Broome and ridden by Luca Panici. This one seems to be a little slower that the rest, so I am going to move on.

PP10 Concealedwithakiss (15-1): Trained by Luis Duco and ridden by Marcos Neneses. Annette will like this one because of the name. I think again, this one doesn't have what it takes to win here. So again, moving along.

PP11 Kinsley Kisses (6-1): Trained by Todd A. Pletcher and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Now I have the Annette exacta for this race. Did anybody notice that Todd had removed his “Evil Todd” goatee at the Belmont? And, has anybody noticed that Tyler Gaffalione is 44% when riding for Pletcher, most of which have come at GP? Anybody notice that KK is 2 for 2 at GP? KK is another GP maiden breaker and has won every non-stakes race she has competed in. Oh wait, this is a stakes race. Ok in stakes races she likes to finish 2nd and 3rd a lot, so why should this one be any different.  Bet you thought I was going to drink the Todd Kool-Aid here, didn't ya? Use underneath, not on top.

Bottomline: The 2017 edition of the Princess Rooney has turned out to be a highly competitive race in which it is difficult, in most cases to separate the contenders from the pretenders. No real strong opinion on this race, and my opinion could change between now and Saturday. But as of now, this is how I see it. 

I am looking for Marty Wolfson to relive some of his old South Florida glory. Castellano and Pletcher involved on different entries will suck up most of the weekend warrior money.  Wolfson has always been good off the layoff and Curlin's Approval (7) has the ability to win here if she gains regain her good form.  The recent workouts give me reason to think she will. I will look for Dearest (3) and Kinsley Kisses (11) to fill out the exacta and trifecta.  Because this is such a competitive race, you might want to spread out a little in the exotics.  A price horse here would not be a shocker and the payoff could be good.

Good luck to everyone.
 

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Affirmed Stakes (G3)

Affirmed Stakes a Turning Point for Battle of Midway?

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds


The Affirmed Stakes, named for the Triple Crown Champ who was based in California, is contested at 1 1/16 miles. Affirmed the horse would have preferred 1 1/8 miles. 


This year, the Grade 3 event attracted only five contestants. Doug O'Neill entered the state-bred turf stakes winner B Squared and Term of Art, who was tenth in the Preakness. The prominent California trainer has never taken home the Affirmed Trophy.

Let’s review the field
Last seen finishing third in the Kentucky Derby, BATTLE OF MIDWAY has never finished out of the money. The son of Smart Strike and G1 winning mare Rigoletta owns victories in maiden and optional claiming races. He came within a half-length of capturing the Santa Anita Derby (G1) before running a strong race over the slop in Kentucky. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer gave the colt a bullet 6F breeze from the gate and Battle of Midway should be ready to defeat the competition.


TERM OF ART took the scenic route through the Preakness Stakes. He had enough after chasing the field four wide and lagged 16 lengths behind the winner, Cloud Computing. Term of Art is 0-3 at 1 1/16 miles and has a 6-1-0-1 record at Santa Anita. Term of Art has a strong pedigree. He’s by Tiznow out of a full sister to the G1 winning turf miler Mr. Sidney and the multiple stakes placed turf router Save Big Money. His second dam is the highly accomplished multiple G1 stakes winner Tomisues Delight, the heroine of the Ruffian and Personal Ensign Handicaps and runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks, CCA Oaks, etc.  She’s a half-sister to Horse of the year Mineshaft.   Term of Art isn’t living up to his illustrious pedigree on dirt. He has turf history in the pedigree, give him a shot on the lawn.


Speaking of turf, B SQUARED found 1 1/8 miles over the Santa Anita turf a little too far in the state-bred Snow Chief Stakes. He faces open company in the first time in four starts. B Squared is a full brother to Hopeful Stakes (G1) hero Ralis. That one found a home on the turf as a three-year-old. B Squared does his best running on the lead and gets to take the short way home on the rail. In their last breeze, he outworked stablemate Term of Art.


ARMS RUNNER switches to dirt and tries his hoof at two turns after capturing two turf sprints. The pretty gray colt is a half brother to the talented but fragile Calculator, winner of the G3 Sham Stakes and multiple G1 placed as a two and three-year-old. Peter Miller’s trainee has clocked swift breezes in preparation for his dirt debut.


QUIET DUDE could be a sneaky play.  Quiet Dude tries hard. In eleven starts, he’s only won a maiden claiming race, but has hit the board five other times. Quiet Dude recently made up ground to place third in a seven-furlong optional claimer.  Most of his career, Quiet Dude has been confined to dirt sprints, but his pedigree calls for distance. He’s a half-brother to the stakes winning miler Third Dawn, who is multiple graded stakes placed at 1 1/16 miles. A half sister is a multiple stakes placed turf sprinter.


Selections
Battle of Midway is the class of the field. So much for stating the obvious. But the Bay colt like to mix it up early in the game and will have to contend with B Squared on his inside. Arms Runner and Quiet Dude have the chance to pick up some cash and blacktype. Term of Art is a stalker. I don’t expect the pace to be that strong.

#2 BATTLE OF MIDWAY (4-5)
#1 B SQUARED (6-1)
#5 ARMS RUNNER (9-5)


Handigambling
A five horse field is a poor betting proposition. I would advise skipping the race and spend the $100 bankroll on tickets to the ThoroFan Awards Brunch on August 11.  You’ll have enough $$$ left over for a fun day at Saratoga.