Friday, June 2, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Beholder Mile (G1)

Beholder Mile Filled With Quality

Michael Mills, ThoroFan Handicapper

Disappointed in the short filed with just four mares and a filly lining up.  However, they represent a total of over $4.3 million in lifetime earns and seven Grade I titles, impressive.

#1 Vale Dori  One of two in here for Baffert and a winner of six straight.  Projecting this mare to hit the gas right from the start and lead as far as she can.

#2 Stellar Wind  This girl shows up every time.  Second start of the year following a victory in the G1 Apple Blossom mid-April.  Should be sitting the cat bird seat turning for home but the question is catching the wire first at this mile distance with the short field.

#3 Show Stealer  Threw in a clunker in last.  She is a good one but as past attempts show appears to be a step behind the first two in the lineup.

#4 Finest City  Improved mightily as a four year old last year.  Money Mike Smith will have options when the gates open depending on how the #1 breaks.  Concern here is the two turn mile.

#5 Faithfully  The second stringer for Baffert.  This filly has always had promise, however this is a big step up and would have to run a much improved race then in the past.

The Play

Sometimes in the game of handicapping and wagering in a race like this one you might have to go against your handicapping skills when it comes to the wagering part. 
I view Stellar Wind as clearly the most talented of this group and sitting on a big race second time back.  However, the shape of this race leads me to have to go against Stellar Wind at what projects to be a super short price with my concern that she will be short to the wire at the mile. 
As such, I am going with #1 Vale Dori believing she will get to the front easily and receive only mild pressure from Finest City, and due to the distance of one mile hold off Stellar Wind at the wire.

If you must bet, $80 win on #1 Vale Dori.

Have a Day.

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