Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Ruffian Stakes (G2)

 Picks 'N Plays for the Ruffian Stakes

By:  MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper

Saturday’s Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes at Belmont at the Big A was named in honor of the tragic black heroine. Once a prestigious Grade 1 event at 1 1/8 miles, the Ruffian has been watered down to a Grade 2 at a mile.

This year, seven older fillies and mares will enter the starting gate at 4:09 PM ET. Let’s review the field.

 

For this very short field, there isn’t a point in picking a superfecta, so I went with just the trifecta. When fields are 7 horses or less, you’re not going to make much on the superfecta, especially if a horse ends up scratching. My trifecta includes longshot Dry Powder, Eumonia, and Irish Maxima.

#7 Dry Powder to Win

I really like Dry Powder with Trainer Chad Summers, even though she just ran last week in the G1La Troienne  where she finished ninth. She has had decent workouts leading up to the La Troienne so it makes me wonder if that was a prep race for the Ruffian. When you consider Jockey Kazushi Kimura is aboard and the fact she won at this distance at Belmont at the Big A twice, I think she has a good chance. She has come back in form after a layoff, so maybe this is the race she was always meant to run.

#3 Eunomia to Place

I went with #3 Eunomia to place mostly because I think she will be a heavy favorite with Jockey Tyler Gaffalione. In December, she came back to form after a few months off to win a $32k Optional Claiming Race at Tampa Bay Downs. Since then, her form and speed have been pretty consistent at various distances, including a mile. Her last race out in the Keeneland Baird Doubledog Dare G2 she lost by just a neck. I think she has what it takes to go to the front with Dry Powder.

#6 Irish Maxima to Show

I liked #6 Irish Maxima over #5 Inefficiency because she has proven herself more after a layoff. She was off from August 30, 2025 to February 21, 2026 and came back to finish in the money on slop at Aqueduct. She has been consistent in getting back to form, winning her last two races. I am not sure how she will do going back up to a harder class, but with the small field, she has a good chance.

My Bets:

$10 to win on #7

$2 exacta box 7-3

.50 trifecta box 7-3-6

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Apple Blossom Stakes (G1)

 

 Longshots can Bloom in Apple Blossom Stakes

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 

The $1.25 million Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes features nine older fillies and mares traveling 1 1/16 miles over the Oaklawn Park oval.

The track should be fast, but the par speed listed on the Brisnet form (100) is in question from my perspective. I think the par is closer to 97.

We have several who like to be on the lead, with many who like to track a leader. If the track plays as usual, closers will be left behind, relegated to the bottom of the exotics.

Carded as Race 10 of 12, post time is 5:47 PM CT. Let’s review the field.

#1 Nitrogen – Casse/Ortiz, J – She has never been out of the money in 14 starts, with half of them wins. She has the most graded-stakes experience and $2+ million in earnings to her credit. Last out she didn't appreciate the wet track and didn't finish in a straight path. She lost to the next two listed below. 9/5 odds. Always a Contender.

#2 Majestic Oops – Ward/Arrieta  - Won the Azeri last out against Nitrogen, loves Oaklawn with 8 races, 4 wins and 2 placings. Arrieta was aboard for three of those wins shown on the form. She's a tracker and can close to finish from midpack as well. Good choice for a win contender at a good price 9-2.

#3 Regaled – Beckman/Ramos  - She is a late closer and used that talent to finish second behind Majestic Oops in the Azeri by 3/4. Has had 15 starts on fast tracks with two wins, one placing and four thirds. In her four starts on off track conditions, she hasn't been out of the exacta and won twice. If the track was wet, I'd give her a shot. Bottom of exotics.

#4 Dazzling Move – Joseph/Gonzalez  - Recent form doesn't look so good, but she's been off for 77 days with six works and adds blinkers for this one. Looking back at her races, she was competitive and speedy when going to the front. I think Saffie has a plan, and Gonzalez is the type of rider that can move her on the front or nearly so. Could make an impression on the pace and will likely be in the lower exotics. 15-1

#5 Om N Joy -  Ordonez/Desormeaux  - Her races have, for the most part, been against state-bred or restricted races. This will be quite a test. She's only had one race this year, about 35 days ago. Two works since her last, and is a closer when she wins. Think the competition will be too much, given her speed figures going a route of ground. Toss

#6 Nerazurri – Casse/Torres  - Her form is excellent, and she loves Oaklawn with 4 races, 3 wins and a placing this year. Likes the lead but doesn't need it to win. Although not tested against this level, except for her place finish against Nitrogen at this track, gives me confidence that she will show up in the exotics and my surprise with a win. Must use. 6-1

#7 Five G – Weaver/Velasquez  - Last seen winning with Johnny V up against lesser going a mile. She's had some good wins, including the Gulfstream Oaks and a second in the Honeybee here last year. Johnny put her on the bridle last year in the Cash Run and won by 9. He could put her on the lead and stroll through the backstretch and leave them flat-footed if others let him get away with it. Dangerous at 10-1.

#8 Claret Beret – Joseph/Husbands  - She likes to come from off the pace as she did at Gulfstream, going the distance in the Royal Delta, winning by 5 lengths. I believe if she moves closer to the pace, she can close with the best in the field. Must use at 8-1.

#9 Blue Fire – Asmussen/Geroux  - Coming from the outside post is not helping her front-running style going against smaller fields but Geroux is a patient rider and skilled at making a move at the right point in a race. At 15-1 I'll use him in the exotics and a small win wager given her late pace figure.

Handigambling menu….you must decide how large your wagers should be.

Going to stick with #2 Majestic Oops on top and the 6, 7 and 8 are likely in the money

$.50 Trifecta – 2 with 1,6,7,8 with All   $14

$1 Exacta Box – 2,6,7,8,9   $20

$.50  Superfecta  - 8 with 2,7 with All with All  $42  (If available, a $.10 Super cost $8.40 but should pay well if the 8 is on top of 2 or 7)

Longshot player’s Win wagers on 6,7,8,9  Dutch your win wagers on theses four and play the exacta box above.

Like $6 win 9, $9 win 7, $11 win 8, & $14 win 6. Each would pay $96-99 given the ML odds.  

$60 total for the win and exacta box.

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Santa Margarita (G2)

 The heat is on in Santa Margarita Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $200,000 Grade 2 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita attracted a small competitive field of six older fillies and mares on Sunday’s card.

Formerly a Grade 1 contest, the Santa Margarita list of winners includes Zenyatta and her sister Balance, Life is Sweet, Nashoba’s Key and Adare Manor, who captured the last two editions of the 1 1/8 mile event.

The Santa Margarita is featured as race 3 of 10 with a post time of 2:05 PM PT.

Let’s review the field.

Liberal Lady returns to Santa Anita, where she has a 7-2-0-1 record. She’s been hit-or-miss against lesser types but can press the pace. The Leonard Powell trainee is up against better fillies, and her Brisnet late-pace figures are some of the lowest in the Santa Margarita, but if she settles a few lengths off a hot pace, she has a shot to light up the exotics.

The lightly raced Princess of Time has only four starts under her girth. This 5-year-old didn’t make it to the races until last April when she was off slow and bumped in a turf maiden race. MIA until this January, the Mike McCarthy trainee bested maidens by 2 1/2 lengths at six furlongs. Princess of Time did the same in her next start, then was third against optional claimers at a mile. While her Brisnet ratings are competitive, Princess of Time adds distance, faces more experienced foes, and will be challenged on the front end. Pass.

Where’s My Ring scratched from the Gamely (G1) for a more suitable spot on the dirt. She’s coming off a third-place finish in the Apple Blossom (G1) and captured the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle (G3) last year. She was off until this March when she bested optional claimers at Oaklawn. Now she’s making her first start for Peter Miller, who has 2 winners from 16 starters after a trainer switch. Both winners were turf sprinter – milers. Where’s My Ring has tactical speed and can settle off the just off the pace. She’s also one of two in here with a victory at 1 1/8 miles. Contender.

Splendora has faced better in her quest for a graded win. She was second to Kopion in last year’s La Brea (G1) and fourth behind that rival in the Santa Monica (G2). Kopion ran away with the  Derby City Distaff (G1) in her last start and is one of the top sprinters in the country.

The Bob Baffert trainee chased Richi (Chi) in the Santa Maria (G2) in her last start. Splendora earned a career-best 105 Brisnet speed rating in her last start, and her late-pace figures are the best in the field. She’s only won on the lead, but she has plenty of early zip, having set a 12.56 first quarter in her second start. Baffert captured the last two editions of the Santa Margarita with Adare Manor. While Splendora isn’t in that one’s league, she could run this group off their feet – if she can carry her speed. Contender.

Alpha Bella scratched from the Gamely (G1). She hasn’t won since January 2024, when she captured the 1 1/2 mile La Prevoyante (G3) over the Gulfstream lawn. The John Sadler trainee is consistently in the money against Grade two and Grade 3 types on dirt, and switches back to dirt after a one-length loss in the Wilshire (G3). John Sadler has a 34% win rate with this angle, but 59% of his charges hit the board. Alpha Bella only wins while on the lead; otherwise, she’s a solid exotics play.

When she has the lead, Seismic Beauty is unstoppable. She captured her second start last year by five lengths after dueling through quick early fractions. Bob Baffert’s charge didn’t get the lead in her next pair of starts against optional claimers and was green down the lane. Once straightened out, she had every opportunity but stayed behind the pacesetter.

In her second start against optional claimers, Seismic Beauty broke a step slow from the rail. She rushed up but had to tap on the brakes. Down the lane, JJ Hernandez tried to push Seismic Beauty through a hole, but she didn’t want any part of that and finished a non-threatening third. The experiment ended in her last start against optional claimers, this time at a mile. Seismic Beauty broke confidently, established the lead, and won by ten lengths, as an even-money favorite should.

The question is – can Seismic Beauty carry her speed 1 1/8 miles? Uncle Mo’s daughter is out of a stakes-placed sprinter by Medaglia d’Oro, and the little blacktype in her immediate family is speed-oriented. However, her breeding suggests that Seismic Beauty can handle 1 1/8 miles. She’s a wildcard, as we don’t know how she’ll react to being challenged on the lead. Her late-pace figures are in the mid-80s, but her mid-race figures are in the 100s. Talented but quirky. Exotics.

Analysis

Five of the last 12 Santa Margarita heroines won or placed in the Santa Maria. Speed rules at Santa Anita. Five of the previous 12 winners set the pace, while the majority of the rest were pressers. Bet the favorite. None have placed worse than fourth in 12 years, and four of the last five won.

Splendora fits the historical winner’s profile. The Grade 1-placed filly has plenty of speed but is a vulnerable favorite.

Where’s My Ring has experience at 1 1/8 miles and can press the pace.

Alpha Bella is predictable and generally cashes a check.

Seismic Beauty could get the lead and run away. Otherwise, her competitive nature is questionable.

 Selections

3. Where’s My Ring (5-2)

4. Splendora (6-5)

5. Alpha Bella (5-1)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Who will bloom in the Apple Blossom Handicap?

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome back to Oaklawn Park to see older fillies and mares work their magic. Forecast is excellent, with a touch of early summer temperatures. Post time for race 11 is 5:46 PM CT.

Morning Line Favorites

#4 Adare Manor – Baffert/Hernandez J.J. – Winner of $1m in earnings with five wins and two seconds against Grade I or II company in eight attempts. She took time off after losing the BC Distaff last fall, then returned to finish second in Beholder Mile. Can't deny her favoritism in this one. Carries the high weight and has never been over the track. Not my top pick.

#3 Wet Paint – Cox/Prat - Hasn't been seen since a poor showing in the BC Distaff last fall. Apparently loves Oaklawn as she won three out of three against graded company last year at 3. $1.19m winner. The works are great, and I like her coming back after her hard 3-year-old campaign. Like her as a winner here.

#7 Honor D Lady – Joseph/Castellano – Coming off a win in the Royal Delta G3 at Gulfstream from the front after the second call. Gulfstream being what it is, it's hard to beat a strong front running style. That doesn't necessarily work at Oaklawn. She also faces the front end with a couple others here. Like her underneath.

 

The Field

#2 Taxed – Morse/Torres – lost to Wet Paint here three out of three, skipped the Kentucky Oaks, and won the Blackeyed Susan. After that, she declined in form and took a break from September until her return to Oaklawn, winning an optional claiming race and going 6 furlongs here in mid-March. She has never won at this distance. She doesn't give me the confidence she will be in the top money. Superfecta?

#6 Misty Veil – Maker/Vasquez  - She is a consistent ITM lifetime at Oaklawn and four-for-four since December. Last seen losing by a neck in the Azeri G2 on a tracking trip. She's 75% at the distance and 90% at Oaklawn. She'll carry 5 pounds less than top weight today. I'll play her underneath at 12-1 or better.

#8 Bellamor – Asmussen/Asmussen  - Came in third behind Misty Veil in the Azeri after drifting out and before that, won the Houston Lady Classic G3 after changing to Asmussen's barn. That was her first run at Oaklawn, but she has never been out of the money at the distance. Another logical to play underneath at 12-1.

#9 Shotgun Hottie – DeVaux/Lopez – This is where we see speed from the outside post. Lopez has been on this lady twice, and both were wins from or near the front. I expect Paco to do what Paco does and run the feet off others for the trip. She has been training here, and she has some fast times in her preps. She might be a win contender. Gotta love the name with Paco riding; it makes sense.

 

Longshots

#1 Feel Like a Girl – Pomier/Manrrique  - Don't know the trainer or jockey, but what I can tell you is the 5-year-old mare has $1.3m in the bank on an average of 9 races per year (mostly LS races), and when Manrrique was up last he missed by a neck to Ballamore in the Houston Lady Classic. She is one for two here, is 6 for 8 ITM at the distance, and 90% ITM for the last 10 races. These 20-1 ML odds horses with that kind of race record get overlooked. It says something about her mental ability to compete. At those odds, she has to be played with others. She'll carry the featherweight of the group. Top longshot!

#5 Flying Connection – Fincher/Santana  - This Nyquist filly can be a speedball, and from that post might be a factor for Honor D Lady and Shotgun Hottie. The issue for me is Oaklawn doesn't play well with frontrunners most of the time. She is a multiple-listed stakes winner and loves the distance where she is 3 for three but in her last attempts against graded stakes winners, she did not enjoy the company. If we see a battle up front, I don't think she's stay.

 

Handigambling  - I believe pace will deliver the outcome of this race. The frontrunners will try to wage a battle, and a mid-pack tracker will close in the long stretch to win. Let's keep today's wager around $60.

$1 Trifecta – 3 with 1,6,9 with All - $21

$.50 Trifecta – 1,6,9 with 3 with All - $10.50

$1 Exacta – All with 1 - $8

$1 Exacta – 1 with All -  $8

$16 to Show on 1