Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Clark Stakes (G2)

Looking for an edge in the Clark Stakes

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

Greetings folks! Our ThoroFan race of the week is the $600,000 Clark Stakes. The traditional day after Thanksgiving feature is a Grade 2 event for three-year-olds and up going nine furlongs on the dirt under the legendary Twin Spires of Churchill Downs with a post time scheduled for 5:48 pm.

The Clark is among the oldest races in the United States, having first been run in 1875, the year Churchill Downs opened and is named in honor of Colonel M. Lewis Clark, founder of the Louisville Jockey Club which built the racetrack. Since its inception, the Clark has been run at various distances, but its current 1 1/8-miles has remained constant since 1955.

A field of 10 will enter the starting gate with four of the runners being graded stakes winners, but none having won above the G3 level. A few of the horses have competed in G1 and G2 company and have performed well. Do those races against better possibly give them the edge? Let’s have a look at the lineup from the rail out.

PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML

1 - Straight Arrow – Florent Geroux/Michael Dini – 8/1 -Ships in off a two-race winning streak, albeit against New York state-bred runners. Both of those victories came in the mud, so he certainly would appreciate an off-track. He should get a nice ground saving journey having drawn the rail. The switch to Geroux is a big plus, but overall, it probably won’t be enough as this is a big step up.

2 - First Mission – Luis Saez/Brad Cox - 3/1 - The only blemish (if you want to call it that) on this lightly-raced sophomore son of Street Sense’s record was his second-place finish in his maiden debut. Since then, he has reeled off three straight including the G3 Lexington two back with a speed figure good enough to win this. He is owned by Godolphin Stables who won this race the last two years with Maxfield (2021) and Proxy (2022). Has worked well in preparation for this.

3 - Il Miracolo – Tyler Gafflione/Antonio Sano – 4/1 - Another three-year-old trying older horses. He was based in Florida during the winter for the Kentucky Derby trail, but that didn’t work out well as he couldn’t compete against the likes of Forte and Mage. He’s been well traveled the second half of 2023 and three back at Parx he scored a big win in the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes, then was beaten a head in G2 Fayette last time out.

4 - Gasoline – Flavien Prat/Todd Pletcher – 5/1 - A winner of three of his last four, including his last two over this surface, so maybe he’s found a home here. This will be his first try in graded stakes after successfully going through his allowance conditions. His last was a huge win with a pretty good speed figure that puts him right there. He’s moving up in class, but makes his third start off a layoff, a category trainer Pletcher excels with.

5 - Trademark – Fernando De La Cruz/Victoria Oliver – 6/1 - This four-year old has made the most starts in the field and two back he was beaten a head in the G2 Lukas Classic after getting to the lead in the Churchill Downs stretch., earning a speed figure that could get his picture taken if he can repeat it. However, his form went south last time out with his seventh-place finish in the Fayette, so he will need to find a way to rebound big time to compete here.

6 – Film Star – Jose Lezcano/Linda Rice – 5/1 - Has a pretty good record at this distance with a pair of wins and second-place finishes. He was runner-up in the G2 Woodward Stakes behind Zandon and last start he was beaten less than two lengths in the G2 Forty Niner Stakes. Ships in for the always dangerous Linda Rice, so the horse must be respected from that angle as Rice has a high win rate (23%) with shippers.

7 - Giant Game – Martin Garcia/Dale Romans – 12/1 - Another G3 winner, but that win in the Cornhusker in July was the last time he got his picture taken, He did earn the highest speed figure in the field from that win, but that came when he was loose on an uncontested lead, something that probably he won’t get here with other speed present. He failed to beat a weaker field last race, so this is a tough task to secure a win against this group.

8 - Happy American – Declan Cannon/Neil Pessin – 20/1 - This guy has competed in nothing but graded stakes his last eight races and to his credit he managed a third place showing in the G1 Stephen Foster back in July. He was given a break following that race, but his two starts following the rest have been sub-par. He will need major improvement to beat this field.

9 - Strange Raider – Brian Hernandez/Cherie Devaux – 12/1 - Enters off a sixth-place finish against Cody’s Wish in the G1 BC Dirt Mile. He ran very well in the G3 Ack Ack back in September where he finished second, beaten a length here at Churchill. Overall, his speed figures pale in comparison when matched against others and that alone makes me think he’s not capable of breaking through to win this.

10 - Blue Devil – Javier Castellano/Jeff Hiles – 10/1 - Has been in excellent form since the beginning of June, having not missed a top three finish in five outings, including representing himself very well in the Lukas Classic where he finished third, beaten just a length. He’s been off for nearly two months but has performed well in the past returning from a layoff, so he’s capable in this spot. Trainer Hiles is winless at this meet and has never won a graded stake, but the switch to Castellano is a positive and may be what the horse needs to get it done.

 

ANALYSIS

The makeup of this field indicates there is plenty of early foot which could accelerate the pace up front, favoring runners from behind. With that said, I’ve settled on a pair of horses that will be tracking behind the leaders and one of them should prevail.

First Mission defeated older allowance runners last race, showing patience and perseverance when getting blocked in the upper stretch and he beat a quality field two back in the Lexington Stakes. He’s lightly raced and has banked three wins in a row. The talent is there, and he has the most upside.

Il Miracolo was only beaten a head in his first try against his elders last out in the Fayette. His speed figure from that effort and the figure from his third-place finish at Parx in the G1 Pa Derby are solid. He’s in very good form right now and wouldn’t take much improvement from his last two races to come out on top.

WAGER

Between the two choices, Il Miracolo gets the call. The Antonio Sano runner will be more attractive odds opposed to First Mission, who will likely be the betting choice. Maybe too low for my liking. However, I will put both horses together in an exacta.

Win and Place on Il Miracolo

Exacta Box: Il Miracolo/First Mission

For the tri’s and/or supers, readers can add in whoever they feel comfortable with.

For the record, I will be using Blue Devil to fill out my trifecta.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Value in the Penn Derby May Add Up

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

With the scratch of Maximum Security from the Pennsylvania Derby, two things occurred; the race became wide open, but the field shrunk limiting the wagering opportunities. 

Nonetheless, it should be a good race to watch and handicap. Three of the six horses in the race have Grade one experience. One of these stands out and is the likely winner. However, a couple of others are maturing and could surprise.

Here is the field.

1.      Math Wizard (Algorithms) seems to be maturing from his 2-year-old form. May not be ready to win at this level. If he takes advantage of the rail and tries to control the pace, he could surprise. 

2.      Improbable (City Zip) won a grade one event as a 2-year-old. Has not repeated at that level. Baffert brings in Mike Smith for extra help which may not help. Likely to be forwardly placed to help set the pace. Unlikely he will have the stamina at the end.

3.      Shanghai Superfly (Shanghai Bobby) didn’t run as a 2-year-old. The claim in late July for $40,000 questions his quality. Bred nicely, but not here.

4.      War of Will (War Front) is the most experienced horse in the field at the grade one level. Early in his career, he showed signs of greatness. His last offers some questions. Yet the field is not as strong as he has faced. Should be good enough to do it. 

5.      Spun to Run (Hard Spun) ran a nice Haskell (GI). His return in the Smarty Jones at PARX gave mixed messages. Having the only win over the PARX surface is a plus. However, it may have taken too much out of him. Be cautious.

6.      Mr. Money ( Goldencents) has been a money-maker this year for Allied Racing Stable. Working perfectly for this race with the last three all delivering bullets while stretching out. With a 42% chance to pair his last effort in the race (ThoroGraph data) makes him dangerous.

The major problem with the Pennsylvania Derby is the lack of early speed thanks to the scratch of Maximum Security. As a result, pace will determine the race. Off last efforts it is very likely that both Spun to Run and Improbable will bounce or not run their best race. Shanghai Superfly is being asked for too much and it will show it. This leaves three contenders for the win. With the absence of Maximum Security, the race sets up for an upset or at least a value exotic play. Here is how I see the race finishing.

1.      War of Will (# 4)

2.      Math Wizard (#1)

3.      Mr. Money (#6)

4.      Improbable (#2)

$100 Handigamble:

$2 Trifecta Box: War of Will ($4)/ Math Wizard (#1)/ Mr. Money (#6)/Improbable (#2) = ($48)

$2 Trifecta Key: Math Wizard (#1) over War of Will (#4)/Mr. Money (#6)/ Improbable (#2) = ($12)

$40 to Place on Math Wizard $40)

Good luck, but keep the day job!

 

Handicapper's Corner: Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

Commonwealth Stakes Feature Horses for Courses

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

A small field of seven three-year-old colts and geldings are set to enter the starting gate for the 1 1/16-mile Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday. 

Three entrants have previously competed over Churchill sod. Hot Springs is three for three, and Year of the Kitten won his only start. Zero Gravity placed in one of two starts.

Let’s review the contenders.

Horses for Courses

#7  HOT SPRINGS (2-1) has won three of six-lifetime starts, and all three victories were over the Churchill lawn. The son of Uncle Mo captured his last start, the 1 1/8-mile Jefferson Cup at Churchill, and is making his third start off the layoff for trainer Steve Asmussen.  Strong Win Contender.

#6  YEAR OF THE KITTEN (15-1) captured his debut over the Churchill lawn last year around this time with Corey Lanerie aboard. Since then, Year of the Kitten has only won a claiming race at Saratoga but placed in the Rushaway Stakes earlier this year. Lanerie hasn’t been aboard the son of Kitten’s Joy since the colt’s debut, but the two reunite here. Wild Longshot Play.

Class of the field

#4  MARCH TO THE ARCH (5-2) placed ahead of Hot Springs in the Saranac Stakes (G3) two starts back. Last time out, he just missed in a blanket finish in the Hill Prince (G2), finishing fourth, beaten a head and neck for third. The bay gelding cuts back in distance from his usual 1 1/8 miles but is capable of winning at shorter distances. Strong Win Contender.

Making up the exotics

#3  SNIPER KITTEN (7-2) was out of his league in the Secretariat Stakes two races ago and ran out of oats in the Caesar’s Stakes at Indiana last out. Mike Maker gave the colt a light break, and he’s ready to get back on course. His prior record says Sniper Kitten fits here, but he’ll need to step up his game to beat the top pair.

#1  RERIDE (4-1) won an allowance over soft turf last year but has been off the board in two subsequent turf starts. Career-wise, he’s been all over the board, from allowance races to graded stakes. He may find his niche as a sprinter-miler in restricted/listed stakes. Note that he’ll likely play catch me if you can from the rail spot, but may be hounded by Marzo.

#2  MARZO (12-1) showed nothing last year in two starts for the Pletcher barn. After being off for close to a year, Marzo surfaced in Ben Colebrook’s barn and has hit the board in two of three starts.  Marzo takes on stakes company for the first time, and this lightly raced colt may contest the lead.  So far, his speed figures are lower than the more experienced colts, but he has the most room for improvement.

#6  ZERO GRAVITY (8-1) took his sweet time finding his way to the winner’s circle, finally getting his picture taken in his seventh start. Since then, he’s finished second by a neck and just missed second place, beaten a head by Reride, in an off the turf allowance at Keeneland. Ehhh.

SELECTIONS

It doesn’t look like there will be surprises here, but that’s why they run.  Hot Springs loves the course and can get a good trip from the outside. Even if floated wide, he’s cutting back from 1 1/8 miles and is fit enough that it shouldn’t matter.

March to the Arch is the class of the field and has won over multiple tracks. He’ll sit back and make one run.

Marzo has the most upside, but he’ll likely contest the pace.

Sniper Kitten can sit anywhere and make a run & fits with these.

HANDIGAMBLING

Probably a chalky race, so you don’t want to bet $2 to get back $2.10. Exotics may be the best bet.

$10 exacta box: #7, #4, #3 = $60

$5 exacta box: #7, #4, #2 = $30

$10 for a mint julip

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Speed, Pace and Possibilities in Pennsylvania Derby

By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan Member

Weather is forecast to be ideal for this contest for three year olds going one and an eighth. And the field is an experienced lot who have been involved in triple-crown races, mid-summer derbies and state derbies across the land. Frankly there is a lot of class in this race. I propose that a close look at the contenders reveals some good value in this race from a pure betting standpoint. Lots of speed, lots of pace, lots of possibilities.

#1 – First Mondays – (Servis/Pennington) – This Curlin baby was recently third in the Smarty Jones G3 over this track beaten four lengths by Axelrod going shorter. Pennington is a top jockey at PARX and Servis is firing on all cylinders, 28% here and what a great time he had at Saratoga. Did not race as a two year old and although he has a good record in his three starts he’s not in my focus.

#2 – Hofburg – (Mott/Ortiz, Jr. I) – Winner of the Curlin S. in late July in the slop against a small field. Adds blinkers and a look through the running lines at his ITM finishes/wins have come when he’s somewhere back early and accelerates around the field 3 to 5 wide. Although his odds are low (and likely lower given Ortiz’s numbers) his stalwart efforts in the Belmont and Florida Derby and his recent win testify to his ability to contend for the win. 

#3 – Instilled Regard – (Brown/Ortiz, JL) – Last out was in the Kentucky Derby finishing fourth from way back and was held up in traffic in the stretch but managed to get to within 2 of Good Magic and 4 from Justify. Trainer change to Brown was made after the derby and Brown has had him out for some sneaky good 5f works since. Brown’s stats speak volumes to his ability to bring an animal back into the money and I believe we have a viable longshot to consider in any exotic. Win contender? Unlikely but hey, the sibling rivalry continues.

#4 – King Zachary – (Romans/Lanerie) – Was forth in the Travers by a 6 length margin having started last but closed though the stretch. His best efforts have been when he's mid-pack or better. Will they send him closer to the lead and track his stable mate, Mr. Freeze? Could be a Roman’s plan and Lanerie is every bit capable of doing that. Bris power rating has him 3^rd which I find very interesting for a 20-1 ML entry. He's another longshot play in exotics.

#5 – Core Beliefs – (Eurton/Talamo) - Never out of the money until his last race when well back to finish forth in the Travers with a bobbled start. But he has had a fine record getting here and won the Ohio Derby with Talamo up in a driving finish over Lone Sailor. He has been taking a break for about 55 days with what appears to be the same work tab (with 6f works) prior to his second in the Peter Pan after a stumbled start while tracking a good pace. His record of trouble in three of his starts is a concern but, if he gets off well he may have something to say about the pace and the outcome. He run against this year's best and rated well with others in this field. Great value exotics player.

#6 – Axelrod – (McCarthy/Bravo) – Great speed improvement since May. Won the Indiana Derby coming off the pace and his recent win in the Smarty Jones here from mid-pack (and Bravo up) shows his versatility. Works are good and speed improvement is expected to continue. He may be a win contender here at a fair value and may well be overlooked because of others.

#7 – Mr. Freeze – (Romans/Albarado) – Won the WV Derby in his last out and watching the video says a lot about his hutzpah going eye to eye with his previous vival, High North, in the Iowa Derby and Albarado’s determination and brief encouragement down the stretch. Highest last speed and can take a challenge. The breeding suits and the works are better than previous workouts. Great record. I like this one for a value win. 

#8 - McKenzie – (Baffert/Smith) – What can I say about a colt who was #2 in Baffert’s barn last fall, wins three of four (technically 4 for 4 via DQ) and Big Money up for the ride? His work tab is steady with longer runs since August, but this is Baffert’s way. The value is awful but can't leave him off the ticket. Winner? Not wishing bad things though I’d like to see better value on top.

#9 – Trigger Warning – (Rone/Rosendo) – Last out was a big class test that failed in the Travers. The two prior races in the Ohio and Indiana Derbies were pretty handy. He will likely be a pace factor early if he gets out but I don’t see him in the closing stages of the race. Gets a weight break and goes without googles for this one. Bottom of a Super, maybe.

#10 – Bravazo – (Lukas/Saez) – The only guy who has run all the big Grade I’s this year and Likes second or third a lot. His best was the Preakness. Long hard campaign and I admire his efforts but, I think it is taking its toll. I like him as part of any ticket as he does run on but I suggest he is worn down, not worn out. Worn down after winning $1.1. He has to be included in the exotics but I don’t see our Calumet ‘Farm Boy’ winning.

As I said earlier, there are some contenders in this one that have the experience and ability to make this a very competitive race. If I’m going to wager I’m going to do so with the mindset that says “I need value in my picks and hope they can hook up with other value horses.

Handi-gambling Menu – boy I like that phrase and whoever came up with it has nailed what it really is. Thanks. I hate to take away from your ability to decide who is best for you so the menu is provided to offer some choices.

But I Love a good exacta always:

$2 Exacta Key - All with 3, 4, 7 - $54        

Note: You could leave the 1 & 9 off the top of the above exacta: cost $42 and then play a second exacta as well.

$1 Exacta Key – 7 with All     cost: $9

Total using both Exactas is $51

Win ‘Dutch’ Bets: $16 Win on the #7 with $13 Win on the 3 & 4   cost: $42 - at current odds the payout is about $170

Total cost for all the above is $96 if you play the 1^st Exacta and the win bets and $93 if you play the 2^nd two Exactas and the win bets.

_________________________________________________________________________

Trifecta betting: If this is the way you like to bet then wheel your best pick into a trifecta after eliminating a couple of runners and stack some longshots in your play. 

Mine best value pick is the #7 so is the example below. I would play the #7 as above and below ALL in my Exacta for $18. In the Trifecta I put him in all three money positions (as you would in WPS bets) and carry over the other longshots (value plays) in the last tri key. Value horses are in Bold. ML favorites in Green.

Example:

$1 Tri Key - 7 with 2 3 6 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 - $18

$1.50 Tri Key - 2 3 6 with 7 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 - $27

$.50 Tri Key 2 3 6 8 10 with 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 with 3 4 7 - $37.50 

Total cost for the above Tri Key bets and the Exactas 7 with ALL & ALL with 7 is $100.50

 

Handicapper's Corner: Travers Stakes (G1)

149 Travers Stakes has Magic and Wonder

Eleven three-year-old colts and geldings will contest the 1 1/4 mile “Midsummer Derby.”  The field includes Haskell and Jim Dandy winners Good Magic and Tenfold, Preakness and Belmont Stakes runners-up Bravazo and Gronkowski, and Queen’s Plate heroine Wonder Gadot. 

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers and guest handicapper Zach Taylor from the University of Arizona Racetrack Industry Program offer their choices for first through third place and our best longshot bombs. 

Good luck to everyone!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Mendelssohn	Vino Rosso	Gronkowski	Good Magic
John Caro	Gronkowski	Wonder Gadot	Good Magic	Catholic Boy
Jeff Cobb	Gronkowski	Mendelssohn	Vino Rosso	Bravazo
Nick Costa	Good Magic	Gronkowski	Wonder Gadot	Vino Rosso
Reinier Macatangay	Good Magic	Bravazo	Wonder Gadot	Trigger Warning
Robert Marks	Good Magic	Gronkowski	Bravazo	Mastermind
Michael Mills	Good Magic	Bravazo	Vino Rosso	King Zachary
Nicolle Neulist	Catholic Boy	Gronkowski	Good Magic	Bravazo
Laurie Ross	Wonder Gadot	Good Magic	Bravazo	Tenfold
Zach Taylor	Gronkowski	Good Magic	Wonder Gadot	Bravazo