Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Value in the Penn Derby May Add Up

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

With the scratch of Maximum Security from the Pennsylvania Derby, two things occurred; the race became wide open, but the field shrunk limiting the wagering opportunities. 

Nonetheless, it should be a good race to watch and handicap. Three of the six horses in the race have Grade one experience. One of these stands out and is the likely winner. However, a couple of others are maturing and could surprise.

Here is the field.

1.      Math Wizard (Algorithms) seems to be maturing from his 2-year-old form. May not be ready to win at this level. If he takes advantage of the rail and tries to control the pace, he could surprise. 

2.      Improbable (City Zip) won a grade one event as a 2-year-old. Has not repeated at that level. Baffert brings in Mike Smith for extra help which may not help. Likely to be forwardly placed to help set the pace. Unlikely he will have the stamina at the end.

3.      Shanghai Superfly (Shanghai Bobby) didn’t run as a 2-year-old. The claim in late July for $40,000 questions his quality. Bred nicely, but not here.

4.      War of Will (War Front) is the most experienced horse in the field at the grade one level. Early in his career, he showed signs of greatness. His last offers some questions. Yet the field is not as strong as he has faced. Should be good enough to do it. 

5.      Spun to Run (Hard Spun) ran a nice Haskell (GI). His return in the Smarty Jones at PARX gave mixed messages. Having the only win over the PARX surface is a plus. However, it may have taken too much out of him. Be cautious.

6.      Mr. Money ( Goldencents) has been a money-maker this year for Allied Racing Stable. Working perfectly for this race with the last three all delivering bullets while stretching out. With a 42% chance to pair his last effort in the race (ThoroGraph data) makes him dangerous.

The major problem with the Pennsylvania Derby is the lack of early speed thanks to the scratch of Maximum Security. As a result, pace will determine the race. Off last efforts it is very likely that both Spun to Run and Improbable will bounce or not run their best race. Shanghai Superfly is being asked for too much and it will show it. This leaves three contenders for the win. With the absence of Maximum Security, the race sets up for an upset or at least a value exotic play. Here is how I see the race finishing.

1.      War of Will (# 4)

2.      Math Wizard (#1)

3.      Mr. Money (#6)

4.      Improbable (#2)

$100 Handigamble:

$2 Trifecta Box: War of Will ($4)/ Math Wizard (#1)/ Mr. Money (#6)/Improbable (#2) = ($48)

$2 Trifecta Key: Math Wizard (#1) over War of Will (#4)/Mr. Money (#6)/ Improbable (#2) = ($12)

$40 to Place on Math Wizard $40)

Good luck, but keep the day job!