Thursday, November 3, 2016

Handicapper's Corner: 2016 Breeders' Cup

ThoroFan Racing Analysts' 2016 Picks





The collective minds of the racing analysis' of ThoroFan’s Handicapper’s Corner have selected their top two picks plus their best long shot bomb for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Classic.   

Additionally, the team give their thoughts and bets of the Marathon Stakes (G2),  Breeders’ Cup Turf, Juvenile Fillies, and Breeders’ Cup Mile.

2016 BC DISTAFF
Handicapper
First
Second
Longshot
Michael Amo
Stellar Wind
Forever Unbridled
Curalina
Songbird
Stellar Wind
I’m a Chatterbox
John Caro
Songbird
Stellar Wind
Forever Unbridled
Stellar Wind
Songbird
Forever Unbridled
Stellar Wind
Songbird
I’m a Chatterbox
Songbird
Stellar Wind
Curalina
Stellar Wind
Beholder
Forever Unbridled
Stellar Wind
Songbird
Corona Del Inca

2016 BC CLASSIC
Handicapper
First
Second
Longshot
Michael Amo
Frosted
California Chrome
Hopportunity
Nick Costa
Arrogate
California Chrome
Shaman Ghost
John Caro
California Chrome
Frosted
Melatonin
Dylan Jarmulowicz
California Chrome
Arrogate
Keen Ice
Reinier Macatangay
California Chrome
Arrogate
Keen Ice
Robert Marks
Arrogate
California Chrome
Shaman Ghost
Nicolle Neulist
California Chrome
Arrogate
Shaman Ghost
Laurie Ross
California Chrome
Frosted
Effinex


Marathon Stakes (GII), three-year-olds and up, one and three quarters miles over the dirt, post time 12:35pm PDT
By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

Though the Marathon has not carried the imprimatur of the Breeders’ Cup since 2013, the fourteen-furlong gallop over the dirt maintains its Grade II status as well as its spot on the Breeders’ Cup Friday card.  This year’s edition drew a field of nine runners to compete for a $200,000 purse.  As is typical for the Marathon, that field includes both runners well proven at a stayer’s distance as well as ones whose connections are trying them at such a trip.

Melmich is well proven going long, and this space will side with the Canadian raider.  He has a win at the same mile and three quarters distance as this race, in last year’s Valedictory Stakes (GIII - CAN) at Woodbine.  That came on polytrack, and most of his career form has come over synthetic surfaces.  But, Melmich acquitted himself well last out in the Temperence Hill Invitational at Belmont, his first try over conventional dirt.  That day, he finished second beaten three lengths by Scuba.  He was gaining, but the extra furlong should suit the long-winded Melmich beautifully.  Melmich is fast enough, has stamina to spare, and has the versatility to set the fractions or rally from off of them.  With several in this field who can show speed but do not need it, it helps that regular rider Eurico Rosa Da Silva has the versatility to read the pace as it unfolds and depend on Melmich no matter where he has to put him.

Scuba beat Melmich last out in the Temperence Hill.  That thirteen-furlong trip was the longest that Scuba had covered to date; he won by daylight, though Melmich was closing up ground.  Scuba has blossomed since stretching out to longer distances; before the Temperence Hill, Scuba scored in the mile and a half Greenwood Cup at Parx.  Rider Kendrick Carmouche has been aboard for both of those victories; he returns today.  Scuba will be forwardly placed, though can also rate if he needs, and stay interested if he does not make the top.  Scuba also hails from the barn of Brendan Walsh: a trainer who already has a Marathon Stakes (GII) victory two years ago with Cary Street.  Whether he can stay the extra half-furlong better than Melmich is the big question, but Scuba has hit the board in each of his last twelve starts, and has blossomed as Walsh has stretched him out longer.

The third slot was a close call between Hard Aces and Quick Casablanca.  Quick Casablanca has a win going fourteen furlongs on grass, and has hit the board in four of five starts over fast dirt.  But, he has not raced since mid-August, and trainer Ron McAnally is not the best first-off-the-lay.  Instead, the slight edge goes to Hard Aces.  His connections have been pointing him here, and he gets a huge class drop from the likes of California Chrome in his last two starts.  Three back, he won the Cougar II (GIII) at Del Mar, a mile and a half dirt test.  Hard Aces has not yet stretched to a mile and three quarters, but has been working long enough to suggest that John Sadler is building his fitness.  And, his class stands out.

Selections:

#4 Melmich (2/1)

#1 Scuba (5/2)

#8 Hard Aces (4/1)

Longshot:  Like Scuba, #3 Estrechada (12/1) comes from a barn proven in this race.  She is trained by Guillermo Frenkel-Santillan, the same conditioner who brought Calidoscopio from Argentina to the United States to win the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Marathon.  She keeps Pablo Falero, her frequent rider in Argentina.  And, Estrechada has some solid form going (very) long on dirt.  She won at a mile and nine sixteenths last November at Palermo, and a second at the same distance there the next month.  Though she is a mare facing boys, she typically faced boys in Argentina as well.  Estrechada has some versatility in terms of pace, as well: she can go to the front, stalk the pace, or rally from midpack.  She does have a few questions around her: this will be a class test for her, and she has not raced since June.  But, Estrechada has been working at Santa Anita since September, and should be a good enough price to bet she can take the class rise.

***********************************************************

Breeders’ Cup Turf:  Invasion of the Europeans

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

With a $4,000,000 purse we should expect the best turf horses in the world to come to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup Turf; come they did. Thirteen horses have drawn into the race. Seven were bred in Europe and have done most of their running there. Five are Kentucky bred and one is a California bred.
Noteworthy is that the first and second finishers in the prestigious Qatar Prix de l’ Arc de Triomphe, Founding and Highland Reel, have chosen to come stateside for this race. The Arch was run on a firm course in Chantilly, a switch from its usual course Longchamp.
Of course they will have to contend with the brilliant Flintshire who owned New York turf racing this year. His second place finish in the Arc last year confirms he should not be intimidated by these two. What about some of the others? Here is the field from the hedge out (Morning Line):
1.   Ralis (Square Eddie) is the 3-year-old California bred who is being asked too much to compete with this caliber in the race (30-1 ).
2.   Da Big Hoss (Lemon Drop Kid) has run well at lower levels. With a 4-4 record since April, he must be respected and could affect a low level outcome (20-1).
3.   Ectot (GB) (Hurricane Run) his early speed combined with that of two or three others will likely set up a solid pace which will benefit the closers (8-1).
4.   Flintshire (GB) (Dansili (GB)) is the one to beat. His acculturalization and experience to American turf racing will be an advantage he can hold over his fellow European runners in this race (5-2).
5.   Ashleyluvssugar (Game Plan) hasn’t shown much at this level. Yet his tactical speed may be perfect for piece of this one. Big “if” and the payoff much be worth the risk (15-1 ).
6.   Mondialiste (IRE) (Galileo (IRE)) his strong performance in the Arlington Million (GI) showed what he can do on a firm surface. He had two excuses in the last ---distance and being bumped.  He was double entered in the turf Mile, but chose this instead. Will likely be up close at the end and may surprise (15-1).
7.   Ulysses (IRE) (Galileo (IRE) is a well-bred 3-year-old up against well-bred old horses. Stepping up and seems out of his league, maybe next year (12-1).
8.   Twilight Eclipse (Purim) is always competitive. His last two against Flintshire prove that point. Should be in the mix at the end, but an unlikely winner of this race (30-1).
9.   Money Multiplier (Lookin At Lucky) took advantage of a weight advantage to run second to Flintshire in the Sword Dancer (GI), but don’t expect a repeat here. However, he may find himself in the back half of exotics (20-1).
10.Found (IRE) (Galileo (IRE) impressed the French with her win at 9-1 in this year’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with a serious close. Although cross entered in the Classic the filly’s connections felt her chances were better here – Clearly a threat (3-1).
11.Texas Ryano (Curlin) is the local with all his races in California; four of them over the Santa Anita turf. Would be a huge surprise if he is competitive (30-1).
12.Highland Reel (IRE) (Galileo (IRE)) ran second to Found in this year’s Arc carrying 3 pounds more by making a strong late move. He beat Flintshire last year in the 1 ½ mile Longines Hong Kong Vase (GI). Struggled earlier this year. Seems to be coming back around. May be in the exotics (3-1).
13.Metaboss (Street Boss) is another one that seems over his head. Has not run in a grade one race. Not here (30-1).
The warm California weather with little rain of late will be a challenge for many of the European contingent. However, few of the state-side runners have the goods to beat most of them on their worst day. So leaning to Europeans to be on top is the best approach. However, some of the American horses could light-up the exotic payoffs. The apparent overlays are: Mondialiste (IRE) (#6) and Money Multiplier (#9).
Probable order of finish:
1.   Flintshire (GB) (#4)
2.   Highland ReelE) (#12)
3.   Found (IRE) (#10)
4.   Money Multiplier ( KY) (#9)
5.   Mondialiste (IRE) (#6)
Handigamble ($100):
$10 Exacta Part Wheel: 4 with 6,9,10,12 ($ 40)
$1 Trifecta Key: 4 with 6,9,10,12 ($12)
$30 win #4 ($40)
$2 Exacta Part Wheel: 6,9,10,12 with 4 ($8)
***********************************************************


Yellow Agate Looks Solid in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies



By:
Reinier Macatangay, Lady and the Track

Searching for a standout contender in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) at Santa Anita Park is difficult, but the race contains at least two Grade I stakes winners with undefeated records hoping to keep their streaks intact on Saturday. One of them is China Horse Club’s Yellow Agate, trained by Christophe Clement.

Yellow Agate, a daughter of Gemologist out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, has won two races in her short career as a closer, with the second win coming in the Frizette Stakes (GI) at Belmont Park.

Her first win came one month earlier in a six-furlong maiden race on the same racetrack, when she closed into a swift pace and mowed down the 2-5 favorite Amapola. Yellow Agate shocked bettors at 32-1.

In the Frizette, a one-mile race, Yellow Agate laid up closer to the pace and stalked the leaders in fifth, only two lengths off the lead. She made a wide move on the turn and barely got up over Libby’s Tail. Over nine lengths separated Libby’s Tail and third-place finisher Colorful Charades (who also starts in the Juvenile Fillies).

Yellow Agate captured the Frizette around one turn on the long Belmont Park course, while the Juvenile Fillies will be contested around two turns at the 1 1/16-mile distance. Considering Yellow Agate’s grandparents are heavy route influences A.P. Indy and Lemon Drop Kid, the extra turn and footing should not pose a problem.

Also, Yellow Agate’s morning line of 8-1 sounds too good to be true. To put this in perspective, Valadorna only owns one maiden win out of two starts, yet starts off at 5-1. If Yellow Agate really ends up at 8-1 near post time, by all means, break the piggy bank.

If she starts, the second most intriguing contender is Kaleem Shah’s American Gal.

Despite her status as an undefeated Bob Baffert-trained filly, American Gal might go off at decent odds because her two wins came at sprint distances and in ungraded races. After breaking her maiden by a little over two lengths at Del Mar back in August, she returned to win the ungraded Anoakia Stakes on Oct. 23.

Going from an ungraded sprint on Oct. 23 to the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile Fillies is quite an aggressive move, and perhaps the connections are confident to enter her back so soon. Unfortunately, American Gal drew the far outside No. 12 post, and her status might be up in the air according to racing analyst Randy Moss.

Beyond Yellow Agate and American Gal, the race really becomes wide open.

If the pace collapses and Yellow Agate fails to show up, Ruis Racing’s Union Strike could pick up the pieces and erase a controversial month. She won the Del Mar Debutante (GI) in early September.

Fans scratched their heads when the young Shelbe Ruis became fired by her father as the official trainer for Union Strike and other horses in their stable. Craig Dollase, who helped Ruis start her career, will saddle the Union Rags filly instead. The short time off remains a concern, as Union Strike had minor physical issues after Del Mar ended.

Lastly, take a look at Baffert’s other entrant Noted and Quoted, who recently took the local Chandelier Stakes (GI).

Noted and Quoted, owned by Speedway Stable, threw in one so-so effort out of three starts when she finished fourth by five lengths in the Del Mar Debutante. Previously, she broke her maiden by over nine lengths.

Sometimes horses throw clunkers for unknown reasons. It seems fair to toss out Noted and Quoted’s Debutante effort and assume the other two races represent her actual ability. Plus, tactical speed works as a useful asset.

Overall, Yellow Agate and American Gal hold the most appeal, and bettors should feel comfortable focusing on those two fillies (or just Yellow Agate if American Gal scratches).

Handigambling ($100):

(If American Gal starts)

$20 Win - Yellow Agate
$40 Exacta Box - Yellow Agate / American Gal

(Without American Gal)

$20 Win - Yellow Agate
$40 Exacta - Yellow Agate / Union Strike
$40 Exacta - Yellow Agate / Noted and Quoted
***********************************************************

BC Mile – Tepin Tyme


The Breeders’ Cup Mile is a race that like most big turf races, been dominated by European horses over the years. In this race, Goldikova won it three straight years (2008-2010) but recently United States horses have had some success. That may be the case again this weekend as the lack of rain in Southern California should make the turf course very firm. Most of the European horses in the field seem to prefer ground that is softer with some moisture so they may be at a disadvantage this year.
Santa Anita Race 11 – Grade I 1 Mile - Post Time – 7:40pm (Eastern)
Advance Weather: Sunny, 80s
For a turf race, this race has quite a bit of speed. It looks like this will be an honest pace set by #1 WHAT A VIEW (20-1), #6 PHOTO CALL (15-1) and #13 MIDNIGHT STORM (12-1). PHOTO CALL wired rival TEPIN in the prep for this race a few weeks ago at Keeneland. This spot is a whole lot tougher and with other speed in the race, it will be hard for her to duplicate. The three of them should duel each other into defeat and set the race up for someone from off the pace.
#8 TEPIN (3-1), last year’s race winner, had her eight race win streak snapped last time out but she ran well and looks to be the one to beat here again. Her tactical speed should be perfect for the spot, not too far back but laying off what appears to be a contested pace. While she has never raced here at Santa Anita, she has won races not only all over the East Coast but also Canada and Great Britain; a good ride is all she needs to find the winners circle again in the race.
Finally, #2 ALICE SPRINGS (4-1) and #10 LIMATO (7/2) both ship in from Europe and while European horses usually do well in turf races against United States horses, I do not care for either one of them in this spot. I feel like they will both be over-bet and both maybe at a disadvantage with the ground conditions. The turf course will be firm and hard and both appear to like the going with a little moisture and softer conditions. Also, LIMATO will be stretching out to a mile from predominantly six furlong races. Both have a chance to win but I certainly think there are more negatives than positives and the likely price on the tote board does not help either.

My Plays:
Win: #8
Exacta: 8/2,4,5,10,13 and 4,5/8
Trifecta: 8/2,4,5/2,4,5,10,13 and 4,5/8/2,4,5,10,13
Good Luck!




No comments:

Post a Comment