ThoroFan Racing Analysts' 2016 Picks
The
collective minds of the racing analysis' of ThoroFan’s Handicapper’s Corner
have selected their top two picks plus their best long shot bomb for the
Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Classic.
Additionally, the team give their thoughts and bets of the Marathon Stakes
(G2), Breeders’ Cup
Turf, Juvenile Fillies, and Breeders’ Cup Mile.
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2016
BC DISTAFF
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Handicapper
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First
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Second
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Longshot
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Michael Amo
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Stellar
Wind
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Forever
Unbridled
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Curalina
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Songbird
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Stellar
Wind
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I’m a
Chatterbox
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John Caro
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Songbird
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Stellar
Wind
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Forever
Unbridled
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Stellar
Wind
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Songbird
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Forever
Unbridled
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Stellar
Wind
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Songbird
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I’m a
Chatterbox
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Songbird
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Stellar
Wind
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Curalina
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Stellar
Wind
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Beholder
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Forever
Unbridled
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Stellar
Wind
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Songbird
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Corona
Del Inca
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2016
BC CLASSIC
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Handicapper
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First
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Second
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Longshot
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Michael Amo
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Frosted
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California
Chrome
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Hopportunity
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Nick Costa
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Arrogate
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California
Chrome
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Shaman
Ghost
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John Caro
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California
Chrome
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Frosted
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Melatonin
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Dylan Jarmulowicz
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California
Chrome
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Arrogate
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Keen
Ice
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Reinier Macatangay
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California
Chrome
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Arrogate
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Keen
Ice
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Robert Marks
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Arrogate
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California
Chrome
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Shaman
Ghost
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Nicolle Neulist
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California
Chrome
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Arrogate
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Shaman
Ghost
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Laurie Ross
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California
Chrome
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Frosted
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Effinex
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Marathon Stakes (GII), three-year-olds and up, one and three
quarters miles over the dirt, post time 12:35pm PDT
By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off
Though the Marathon has not carried the
imprimatur of the Breeders’ Cup since 2013, the fourteen-furlong gallop over
the dirt maintains its Grade II status as well as its spot on the Breeders’ Cup
Friday card. This year’s edition drew a field of nine runners to compete
for a $200,000 purse. As is typical for the Marathon, that field includes
both runners well proven at a stayer’s distance as well as ones whose
connections are trying them at such a trip.
Melmich is well proven going long, and this
space will side with the Canadian raider. He has a win at the same mile
and three quarters distance as this race, in last year’s Valedictory Stakes
(GIII - CAN) at Woodbine. That came on polytrack, and most of his career
form has come over synthetic surfaces. But, Melmich acquitted himself
well last out in the Temperence Hill Invitational at Belmont, his first try
over conventional dirt. That day, he finished second beaten three lengths
by Scuba. He was gaining, but the extra furlong should suit the
long-winded Melmich beautifully. Melmich is fast enough, has stamina to
spare, and has the versatility to set the fractions or rally from off of them.
With several in this field who can show speed but do not need it, it
helps that regular rider Eurico Rosa Da Silva has the versatility to read the
pace as it unfolds and depend on Melmich no matter where he has to put him.
Scuba beat Melmich last out in the
Temperence Hill. That thirteen-furlong trip was the longest that Scuba
had covered to date; he won by daylight, though Melmich was closing up ground.
Scuba has blossomed since stretching out to longer distances; before the
Temperence Hill, Scuba scored in the mile and a half Greenwood Cup at Parx.
Rider Kendrick Carmouche has been aboard for both of those victories; he
returns today. Scuba will be forwardly placed, though can also rate if he
needs, and stay interested if he does not make the top. Scuba also hails
from the barn of Brendan Walsh: a trainer who already has a Marathon Stakes
(GII) victory two years ago with Cary Street. Whether he can stay the
extra half-furlong better than Melmich is the big question, but Scuba has hit
the board in each of his last twelve starts, and has blossomed as Walsh has
stretched him out longer.
The third slot was a close call between
Hard Aces and Quick Casablanca. Quick Casablanca has a win going fourteen
furlongs on grass, and has hit the board in four of five starts over fast dirt.
But, he has not raced since mid-August, and trainer Ron McAnally is not
the best first-off-the-lay. Instead, the slight edge goes to Hard Aces.
His connections have been pointing him here, and he gets a huge class
drop from the likes of California Chrome in his last two starts. Three
back, he won the Cougar II (GIII) at Del Mar, a mile and a half dirt test.
Hard Aces has not yet stretched to a mile and three quarters, but has
been working long enough to suggest that John Sadler is building his fitness.
And, his class stands out.
Selections:
#4 Melmich (2/1)
#1 Scuba (5/2)
#8 Hard Aces (4/1)
Longshot: Like Scuba, #3 Estrechada
(12/1) comes from a barn proven in this race. She is trained by
Guillermo Frenkel-Santillan, the same conditioner who brought Calidoscopio from
Argentina to the United States to win the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Marathon.
She keeps Pablo Falero, her frequent rider in Argentina. And,
Estrechada has some solid form going (very) long on dirt. She won at a
mile and nine sixteenths last November at Palermo, and a second at the same
distance there the next month. Though she is a mare facing boys, she
typically faced boys in Argentina as well. Estrechada has some
versatility in terms of pace, as well: she can go to the front, stalk the pace,
or rally from midpack. She does have a few questions around her: this
will be a class test for her, and she has not raced since June. But,
Estrechada has been working at Santa Anita since September, and should be a
good enough price to bet she can take the class rise.
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Breeders’ Cup Turf: Invasion of the Europeans
By: Michael Amo,
ThoroFan Chairman
With
a $4,000,000 purse we should expect the best turf horses in the world to come
to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup Turf; come they did. Thirteen horses have
drawn into the race. Seven were bred in Europe and have done most of their
running there. Five are Kentucky bred and one is a California bred.
Noteworthy
is that the first and second finishers in the prestigious Qatar Prix de l’ Arc
de Triomphe, Founding and Highland Reel, have chosen to come stateside for this
race. The Arch was run on a firm course in Chantilly, a switch from its usual
course Longchamp.
Of
course they will have to contend with the brilliant Flintshire who owned New
York turf racing this year. His second place finish in the Arc last year
confirms he should not be intimidated by these two. What about some of the
others? Here is the field from the hedge out (Morning Line):
1.
Ralis (Square Eddie) is the 3-year-old
California bred who is being asked too much to compete with this caliber in the
race (30-1 ).
2.
Da Big Hoss (Lemon Drop Kid) has run well at
lower levels. With a 4-4 record since April, he must be respected and could
affect a low level outcome (20-1).
3.
Ectot (GB) (Hurricane Run) his early speed
combined with that of two or three others will likely set up a solid pace which
will benefit the closers (8-1).
4.
Flintshire (GB) (Dansili (GB)) is the one to
beat. His acculturalization and experience to American turf racing will be an
advantage he can hold over his fellow European runners in this race (5-2).
5.
Ashleyluvssugar (Game Plan) hasn’t shown much at this
level. Yet his tactical speed may be perfect for piece of this one. Big “if”
and the payoff much be worth the risk (15-1 ).
6.
Mondialiste (IRE) (Galileo (IRE)) his strong
performance in the Arlington Million (GI) showed what he can do on a firm
surface. He had two excuses in the last ---distance and being bumped. He was double entered in the turf Mile, but
chose this instead. Will likely be up close at the end and may surprise (15-1).
7.
Ulysses (IRE) (Galileo (IRE) is a well-bred
3-year-old up against well-bred old horses. Stepping up and seems out of his
league, maybe next year (12-1).
8.
Twilight Eclipse (Purim) is always competitive. His
last two against Flintshire prove that point. Should be in the mix at the end,
but an unlikely winner of this race (30-1).
9.
Money Multiplier (Lookin At Lucky) took advantage of a
weight advantage to run second to Flintshire in the Sword Dancer (GI), but
don’t expect a repeat here. However, he may find himself in the back half of
exotics (20-1).
10.Found (IRE) (Galileo (IRE) impressed the
French with her win at 9-1 in this year’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with
a serious close. Although cross entered in the Classic the filly’s connections
felt her chances were better here – Clearly a threat (3-1).
11.Texas Ryano (Curlin) is the local with all his
races in California; four of them over the Santa Anita turf. Would be a huge
surprise if he is competitive (30-1).
12.Highland Reel (IRE) (Galileo (IRE)) ran second to Found
in this year’s Arc carrying 3 pounds more by making a strong late move. He beat
Flintshire last year in the 1 ½ mile Longines Hong Kong Vase (GI). Struggled
earlier this year. Seems to be coming back around. May be in the exotics (3-1).
13.Metaboss (Street Boss) is another one that
seems over his head. Has not run in a grade one race. Not here (30-1).
The
warm California weather with little rain of late will be a challenge for many
of the European contingent. However, few of the state-side runners have the
goods to beat most of them on their worst day. So leaning to Europeans to be on
top is the best approach. However, some of the American horses could light-up
the exotic payoffs. The apparent overlays are: Mondialiste (IRE) (#6) and Money
Multiplier (#9).
Probable order of
finish:
1.
Flintshire
(GB) (#4)
2.
Highland
ReelE) (#12)
3.
Found
(IRE) (#10)
4.
Money
Multiplier ( KY) (#9)
5.
Mondialiste
(IRE) (#6)
Handigamble ($100):
$10
Exacta Part Wheel: 4 with 6,9,10,12 ($ 40)
$1
Trifecta Key: 4 with 6,9,10,12 ($12)
$30
win #4 ($40)
$2
Exacta Part Wheel: 6,9,10,12 with 4 ($8)
***********************************************************
Yellow Agate Looks Solid in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
By: Reinier Macatangay, Lady and the Track
Searching for a standout contender in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) at Santa Anita Park is difficult, but the race contains at least two Grade I stakes winners with undefeated records hoping to keep their streaks intact on Saturday. One of them is China Horse Club’s Yellow Agate, trained by Christophe Clement.
Yellow Agate, a daughter of Gemologist out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, has won two races in her short career as a closer, with the second win coming in the Frizette Stakes (GI) at Belmont Park.
Her first win came one month earlier in a six-furlong maiden race on the same racetrack, when she closed into a swift pace and mowed down the 2-5 favorite Amapola. Yellow Agate shocked bettors at 32-1.
In the Frizette, a one-mile race, Yellow Agate laid up closer to the pace and stalked the leaders in fifth, only two lengths off the lead. She made a wide move on the turn and barely got up over Libby’s Tail. Over nine lengths separated Libby’s Tail and third-place finisher Colorful Charades (who also starts in the Juvenile Fillies).
Yellow Agate captured the Frizette around one turn on the long Belmont Park course, while the Juvenile Fillies will be contested around two turns at the 1 1/16-mile distance. Considering Yellow Agate’s grandparents are heavy route influences A.P. Indy and Lemon Drop Kid, the extra turn and footing should not pose a problem.
Also, Yellow Agate’s morning line of 8-1 sounds too good to be true. To put this in perspective, Valadorna only owns one maiden win out of two starts, yet starts off at 5-1. If Yellow Agate really ends up at 8-1 near post time, by all means, break the piggy bank.
If she starts, the second most intriguing contender is Kaleem Shah’s American Gal.
Despite her status as an undefeated Bob Baffert-trained filly, American Gal might go off at decent odds because her two wins came at sprint distances and in ungraded races. After breaking her maiden by a little over two lengths at Del Mar back in August, she returned to win the ungraded Anoakia Stakes on Oct. 23.
Going from an ungraded sprint on Oct. 23 to the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile Fillies is quite an aggressive move, and perhaps the connections are confident to enter her back so soon. Unfortunately, American Gal drew the far outside No. 12 post, and her status might be up in the air according to racing analyst Randy Moss.
Beyond Yellow Agate and American Gal, the race really becomes wide open.
If the pace collapses and Yellow Agate fails to show up, Ruis Racing’s Union Strike could pick up the pieces and erase a controversial month. She won the Del Mar Debutante (GI) in early September.
Fans scratched their heads when the young Shelbe Ruis became fired by her father as the official trainer for Union Strike and other horses in their stable. Craig Dollase, who helped Ruis start her career, will saddle the Union Rags filly instead. The short time off remains a concern, as Union Strike had minor physical issues after Del Mar ended.
Lastly, take a look at Baffert’s other entrant Noted and Quoted, who recently took the local Chandelier Stakes (GI).
Noted and Quoted, owned by Speedway Stable, threw in one so-so effort out of three starts when she finished fourth by five lengths in the Del Mar Debutante. Previously, she broke her maiden by over nine lengths.
Sometimes horses throw clunkers for unknown reasons. It seems fair to toss out Noted and Quoted’s Debutante effort and assume the other two races represent her actual ability. Plus, tactical speed works as a useful asset.
Overall, Yellow Agate and American Gal hold the most appeal, and bettors should feel comfortable focusing on those two fillies (or just Yellow Agate if American Gal scratches).
Handigambling ($100):
(If American Gal starts)
$20 Win - Yellow Agate
$40 Exacta Box - Yellow Agate / American Gal
(Without American Gal)
$20 Win - Yellow Agate
$40 Exacta - Yellow Agate / Union Strike
$40 Exacta - Yellow Agate / Noted and Quoted
***********************************************************
BC Mile – Tepin Tyme
The Breeders’ Cup Mile is a race that like
most big turf races, been dominated by European horses over the years. In this
race, Goldikova won it three straight years (2008-2010) but recently United
States horses have had some success. That may be the case again this weekend as
the lack of rain in Southern California should make the turf course very firm.
Most of the European horses in the field seem to prefer ground that is softer
with some moisture so they may be at a disadvantage this year.
Santa Anita Race 11 – Grade I 1 Mile - Post Time – 7:40pm
(Eastern)
Advance Weather: Sunny, 80s
For a turf race, this race has quite a
bit of speed. It looks like this will be an honest pace set by #1 WHAT A VIEW (20-1), #6 PHOTO CALL (15-1)
and #13 MIDNIGHT STORM (12-1). PHOTO
CALL wired rival TEPIN in the prep for this race a few weeks ago at Keeneland.
This spot is a whole lot tougher and with other speed in the race, it will be
hard for her to duplicate. The three of them should duel each other into defeat
and set the race up for someone from off the pace.
#8 TEPIN (3-1), last year’s race winner, had her
eight race win streak snapped last time out but she ran well and looks to be
the one to beat here again. Her tactical speed should be perfect for the spot,
not too far back but laying off what appears to be a contested pace. While she
has never raced here at Santa Anita, she has won races not only all over the
East Coast but also Canada and Great Britain; a good ride is all she needs to
find the winners circle again in the race.
Finally, #2 ALICE SPRINGS (4-1) and #10
LIMATO (7/2) both ship in from Europe and while European horses usually do
well in turf races against United States horses, I do not care for either one
of them in this spot. I feel like they will both be over-bet and both maybe at
a disadvantage with the ground conditions. The turf course will be firm and
hard and both appear to like the going with a little moisture and softer
conditions. Also, LIMATO will be stretching out to a mile from predominantly
six furlong races. Both have a chance to win but I certainly think there are
more negatives than positives and the likely price on the tote board does not
help either.
My
Plays:
Win: #8
Exacta: 8/2,4,5,10,13 and 4,5/8
Trifecta: 8/2,4,5/2,4,5,10,13 and 4,5/8/2,4,5,10,13
Good Luck!
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