Noble Bird Ready to Fly in 2016 Fayette Stakes
By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member
Hagyard Fayette Stakes –
Grade II - $200K – 1 & 1/8 Miles (3+)
Looks
like it will be a great day for racing with bright skies and a fast dry track.
No three year olds are entered for what is expected to be a runaway race by Noble Bird, provided he’s in the mood.
It may require a good look at him on screen or live to sum up what he’s going
to do today. I think the true par for this race is 98. Those that can
consistently play in that area and are improving in form are key players today.
#2 - Noble Bird (6/5) – Hard ridden in his last out at
Churchill in the Lukas Classic for a wire to wire finish after a lay off as he
did the last time he took a break. He has all the pace and speed to win in
today’s contest. His regular rider is aboard and knows this horse well with two
wins and three incredibly poor efforts. His trainer has stated that he is a
tough to ride and moody. He also said he’s at the top of his game. Looking
though the running lines tells me he can be stellar and have exceptional speed
or flop and mosey home if he has a bad start or the pace gets harsh in front of
him. The other caution I see is when he’s taken a lay off he comes back strong
and his second after lay off was a flop. He’s had two good works since his last
out and probably holds his form. The expected favorite with no win bet value.
#1 – Hawaakom (8/1) – Second to Noble Bird at the Lukas
Classic and he finished strong with a close from far back. After some traffic
trouble during the first furlough and being behind Noble Bird by 12 lengths it was a nice effort down on the rail and
well timed to close to within one and a half at 12 to 1. I don’t believe he’ll
have traffic jamming from the rail post and may have a better trip. His lines
show his ability to close from the back or mid pack with excellent speed. The
drawback is the last out was a huge effort. In a smaller field he may threaten
with his 8 ITM finishes in the last ten outings. I like him third.
#3 Kasaqui (6/1) – Interesting thing about this guy is
the decision to move to dirt after a great career on the grass. There is no
question that the distance is suitable for him and one might think that the
move to dirt is unwise but, I don’t think so because Alysheba could show up and wouldn’t that be fun. Interesting side
note: Robby Alvarado rode Kasaqui’s sire, Lasting Approval to many victories.
He came back after a break and shot a 97 Bris speed in a good effort. The win
and place at Arlington are encouraging as well. He could be a value play
because the crowd doesn’t see him coming. We can hope his odds move up like
several races he’s had between 12 and 15 to 1 and play him as a single place
bet. Could be dangerous.
#4 Mr. Z (10/1) – This is an ambitious position for
this guy to be in. He hasn’t been ITM in the last five starts and was on a
break since November until his last in the Ack Ack with terrible results. Yes,
we’d all like to see him improve and return to form but, I just don’t see it
happening. No play here for me. There is one thing he may do in this race. His
early speed/pace may affect the outcome for Noble Bird. He may challenge Bird
through a half at a hot pace and that will bring others into the mix. I hope.
#5 Chocopologie (30/1) – This guy gives me chills. Here we
have a four year old who’s been hiding out in the South with a ten race career
and has never been out of the money. In his only graded stakes he lost by 2.25
to Mobile Bay who he came back to beat decisively in the recent Governor’s Cup.
He may look out classed here but his running style may stay on pace and close
from the ¾ pole and cause damage to other’s chances. I believe I will play this
guy in combination with others in an exacta with a win and place bet to boot.
Have to believe he will be in the money.
#6 Prayer for Relief
(6/1) – He is the
oldest horse in the race and did not fare well in his trip overseas. He has had
four good works after a six month rest but, I don’t think he will be able to
keep pace with the field. Corey will do his best as always and Mr. Romans is a
sly fellow at Keeneland but, I can’t recommend this animal. Not on my ticket.
#7 Iron Fist (5/1) – Asmussen brings his charge to this
field from a second place finish by half a length in the Ack Ack against Tom’s
Ready. This will be Iron Fist’s third off a layoff and he’s had nice works since
his last race and I would expect his form is intact. Santana gets the call and
he can be tactical. The drawback for me is his record going longer than a mile.
He just seems to be a mile specialist and today might be longer than he wants.
I’d use him in third or fourth in exotics.
#8 Divining Rod (5/1) – Another who is third of a layoff
and his last visit to Keeneland I remember well as I made a nice wager on him
then in the Lexington. His performance in the Preakness was good as well
considering the company. He’s taken almost a year off to come back in two back
to back wins at PARX and the speed ratings match up pretty well given today’s
competition. He also has the running style for the race set up that may develop
with a strong leader and those that can carefully track the path in a short
field. He may be the best of the rest.
If
you believe that Noble Bird is fit in his mind and will behave, then by all
means bet him with vigor in an exacta with your picks. I like to see consistent
speeds and efforts that point me to my picks when betting. The three I see as
the most consistent and their form is coming forward are the #5, #8 and the #3.
My idea of a good bet is below.
Win/Place
bets:
$5 win and place on #5
Chocopologie (30/1) $10 – if his odds go
down to about 25 play $7-8
$15 win on #8
Divining Rod (5/1) $15
$15 win on #3 Kasaqui
(6/1) $15
Exacta:
$3 Exacta Box - 3,5,7 /
3,5,7 $18
If you think Noble
Bird’s mood is right!!!
$20 Exacta 2 with
3,5,7 $60
You could play a large
place bet on your best choice of the above three under Noble Bird and be happy
as well. Let you wallet decide.
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