Saturday, October 1, 2016

Handicapper's Corner: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (GI)

2016 Hirsch Turf Classic - Flintshire's Race to Lose

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

At first glance it appears that the Turf Classic is an easy race to handicap. After seeing Flintshire (GB) out-class the fields of the Bowling Green and the Sword Dancer at Saratoga, what else might you think. 

Bowling Green:

Sword Dancer:

The four horse field has little hope of beating Flintshire (GB) this time, unless the intention of Flintshire(GB) is to get a last workout before the Breeders’ Cup and not expend too much energy. Then and only then MIGHT he be upset.
Here is the field:  

1. Ectot (GB) (Hurricane Run-Ire) is a five year old from Great Briton, who took an 8-1 record into the 2014 Prix De l’Arch de Triomphe (GI) only to finish 17th behind Flintshire who finished second. Recent efforts in Saratoga allowance races on Lasix suggest these were preps for this race. 

2. Twilight Eclipse (Purim)is a solid 7-year-old horse but was only capable of getting as close as third to Flintshire (GB) in both Saratoga opportunities. Improving Beyers and ThoroGraph figures suggest he could upset. 

3. Money Multiplier (Lookin At Lucky) the youngster in the quartet at 4-years-old looked good in the Sword Dancer closing for the second spot by 1 ¾ lengths behind a “pulling away” Flintshire (GB). Jockey John Velazquez opts for him over Twilight Eclipse and Ectot may forecast his readiness. 

4.  Flintshire(GB) (Dansilli-GB) a 6-year-old receiving Lasix for the third time and has been giving his American competitors a turf clinic. Should continue. 

Flintshire should win, but will offer no value in the win pool. The best options are to find a nice longshot on the race preceding or the race following the Turf Classic to lock in a daily double (DD). A Pick 3 (P3) with Flintshire in the center of those two races might be of value. When such an odds-on-favorite is in a race, horizontal plays allows for better payoffs if undervalued horse(s) win the attached leg(s) of the wager.

However, if this is only a workout for Flintshire (GB) or the effect of Lasix is not as dominant (4th time using it), then he may vulnerable. As a saver using Flintshire (GB) under the other three in exactas may work. Even a small bet will be rewarding. 

Here is my Handigamble play:
·         Daily Doubles
Ø  $5 DD( 5th/6th  races)--7/4  = $5
Ø  $10 DD(6th /7th races)--4/4,6,7 =$30
·         Pick 3s
Ø  $4 P3(5th/6th/7th)---4,5,6,7/4/4,6,7 =$48
·         Exactas
Ø  $5(6th): 1,2,3/4 = $15

That leaves two dollars to tip the bartender when celebrating or drowning your sorrows.

Good luck, but keep the day job

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