Handicapper's Corner: LeComte Stakes (G3)

A Dozen Colts Lineup for 2012 LeComte Stakes

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

 

Race 11: Lecomte Stakes (GIII), three-year-olds, one mile and seventy yards on the dirt, post time 5:00pm CST

This year marks the 73rd running of the Lecomte Stakes, a race that has held Grade III designation since 2003, and been run at distances varying from a mile to a mile and an eighth.  

Lecomte, by Boston out of the mare Reel, is best known as the only horse to hand Lexington a defeat.  On April 8, 1854, Lecomte beat Lexington in two straight four-mile heats, with his setting a new four-mile record of 7 minutes, 26 seconds. Lecomte is also a half-brother of another horse whose name lives on as the namesake of a three-year-old stakes race: his dam Reel also produced Prioress, by Sovereign.  Racing from ages two through seven, Prioress was the first American-bred and American-owned horse to win in England, and still has a sophomore fillies' sprint stakes run in her honor at Saratoga.

Though no winner of the Lecomte has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, 2013 hero Oxbow would go on to win the Preakness.  Several other Lecomte victors have gone on to Classic placings: No Le Hace (1972) finished second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, Linkage (1982) finished second in the Preakness, and Hard Spun (2007) finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness.

This year's edition of the Lecomte Stakes drew a full field of twelve to vie for a share of $200,000 – and Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1) for the top four finishers.  The morning line anticipates that this will be a wide-open betting race, with five of the twelve runners sitting between 9/2 and 6/1 on the line.  This space agrees that the Lecomte is wide open -- and with that the case, we will go for a price.

Trainer Steve Asmussen sends out three of the twelve runners in the Lecomte, all uncoupled.  "A" entry Untrapped is the morning line favorite, and we will circle back to him later.  "C" entry Tip Tap Tapizar looks a bit overmatched here. 

However, "B" entry Totality looks primed to take a step forward from a second-place effort in the Remington Springboard Mile last out.  There, loose leader Cool Arrow gave him nothing to run at, and he still rallied well to come in second.  Here, Totality should have more of a target, with Phat Man, Tip Tap Tapizar, Running Mate, and Takeoff all showing some early speed.  Barring a speed bias, Totality should be well suited to improve.  He also gets a return to rider David Flores in the irons.  Flores is striking at a respectable 15% this Fair Grounds meet, and he booted Totality home to a maiden victory at Churchill Downs back in October.  In a race without a clear standout, Totality has enough upside to back.

Totality's shorter-priced stablemate Untrapped stretches out to a route for the first time.  He debuted sprinting at Keeneland, finishing second behind eventual Smarty Jones Stakes winner Uncontested after a tough start.  Untrapped returned the next month at Churchill Downs, drawing off to win with authority.  This will be his first start since that victory, but he has been working regularly and trainer Steve Asmussen sends horses out ready off of layoffs.  The stretch out to a mile and seventy yards should be okay; Untrapped is by Trappe Shot out of a Giant's Causeway mare who has produced a winner at a mile.  On pace, Untrapped has proven that he can stalk the pace, a good thing with a few speed horses in the field.  And, should he get a better start, he may prove the goods, albeit at a relatively short price in this competitive race.

Saint’s Fan originally occupied the third slot, but Dallas Stewart has opted to scratch him due to the outside post draw.  Instead, Takeoff intrigues.  Takeoff broke his maiden last out over the same course and distance as the Lecomte.  That came on the front end, which may not be the best way to go here.  However, dig back through his form lines and you see his debut: a close call at Keeneland in which Takeoff rallied from well off the pace to be beaten less than a length.  That came at a sprint, so Takeoff still has to prove he's equally versatile going long.  But, the connections inspire confidence.  Florent Geroux keeps the mount, and he is firing at 29% over the Fair Grounds meet.  Geroux has also been strong for Mark Casse, with three wins and five money finishes in eight tries over the last two months.  The weather may also play to Takeoff's advantage.  Though he has not run over an off track yet, his breeding (by Arch out of an Officer mare) suggests he has upside in the mud.

Selections:

#3 Totality (12/1)

#5 Untrapped (9/2)

#10 Takeoff (6/1)

Longshot:  #11 Pat On the Back (12/1) was well-beaten last out in the Delta Jackpot, but perhaps he did not take to the love-it-or-hate-it Delta Downs track.  He rattled off a nice series of races against state-bred company in New York, with speeds right in rage of what he needs to contend in the Lecomte.  He also showed good pace versatility: though he has shown speed, he has also won from off the pace, a style that ought to serve him better here.  Pat On the Back also gets rider Dylan Davis back from those New York efforts; he did not have Davis's services in Cajun country.  He also adds Lasix for the first time, and has a regular series of work at Fair Grounds stretching back to mid-December.  The weather also shows a good chance of rain for Saturday.  Pat On the Back romped in the slop two back at Belmont, and more rain here would help him factor at a price.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Los Alamitos Futurity (G1)

Mastery to Show Skills in Los Alamitos Futurity  

By: Reinier Macatangay  

Two-year-old races are difficult to analyze because young horses evolve rapidly. While it might surprise handicappers to see an older, more established horse with a consistent pattern suddenly gain or drop 20 points on any speed figure scale, a younger colt barely starting his career is more liable to change unexpectedly.

This fact makes the $300,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (GI) on Saturday difficult to handicap, as two of the five entrants are making their second start, one is making his third start and another debuts on dirt after failed grass attempts.

Of course, most eyes will focus on Mastery, a 2-year-old colt from the loaded Bob Baffert barn.

Owned by Cheyenne Stable, Mastery sports a perfect 2 for 2 record so far, with his second win coming in the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes (GIII) at Del Mar. From a visual standpoint, Mastery looked perfect as well. Jockey Mike Smith guided him to an easy victory over the more accomplished California Diamond.

Pace matters and Mastery initially slipped away with opening fractions of 23 1/5 and 47 flat to open the Bob Hope. For a sprint race, those are sluggish numbers and he converted the soft half into the victory people are praising.


Before the Bob Hope, the promising colt also broke his maiden by over four lengths. This particular maiden race had a nice gap between runner-up Sheer Flattery and the third-place finisher, which signals a fast race. Sheer Flattery failed to hit the board in his return race, but perhaps an awkward start hampered his performance.

Regardless, Mastery offers a lot of promise and deserves the role as favorite. He is not a lock, although many will single him to open the Pick 4. Bettors need to decide whether swallowing 3-2 odds on this horse is worth it.

Remember, not every horse race has a bettable angle and no one scores extra analysis points for thinking Mastery will win, because the majority of handicappers and casual fans believe he is a nice runner already.

To the left of Mastery, Bobby Abu Dhabi tries for his second win in as many starts for trainer Peter Miller and Rockingham Ranch. Auction money does not always equal talent, but they sure paid a lot for him at $335,000.

Bobby Abu Dhabi’s final winning margin in his career debut was “only” a head. From watching the replay, it appeared more impressive than on paper. Norberto Arroyo Jr. knew he had the race wrapped after the far turn.

Unfortunately, Bobby Abu Dhabi faces a tough pace scenario in this spot because Mastery receives blinkers for this race and will hound him if he attempts to steal the contest up front. Even so, he is not without a small chance.

In the fourth post, Mastery’s stablemate Show Me Da Lute also offers bettors a reasonable chance, although his maiden win required extra effort from Martin Garcia, who had to use the whip late in order to encourage his mount.

Still, Show Me Da Lute, a son of stakes-filly Tough Tiz’s Sis, could improve given the connections and pedigree.

On the outside, Irap makes his dirt debut after two unsuccessful tries on turf. Handicappers will dismiss him, but there are a few positive points about Irap at 20-1 to consider.

For one, Irap’s dam Silken Cat won her first three races, all on dirt (back when Woodbine had dirt). In addition, Tiznow progeny are notorious for developing at a slower pace than horses from other sires. Plus, the auction price on Irap reads $300,000 at “OBSMAR 2016,” which means Reddam Racing saw something nice in this colt not too long ago. It is too early to dismiss Irap as an overpriced disappointment.

Mastery will capture the attention of most bettors while routing for the first time and facing a worthy pace foe in Bobby Abu Dhabi. He may well prove several lengths better, but it will not hurt to include other horses. 


Handigambling ($100):

This is a “non-betting situation.” If someone forced me to play and gave $100 though...

$40 Trifecta Wheel ($80 total)
Mastery / Bobby Abu Dhabi, Show Me Da Lute / Irap
(Irap keyed underneath in third)

$20 Exacta
Mastery / Irap

Handicapper's Corner: Delta Downs Jackpot (G3)

Cool Million on the line in Delta Jackpot

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off

Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (GIII), two-year-olds, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 4:45pm CST

The Delta Jackpot may only be a Grade III, but it is one of the richest races on the two-year-old calendar, with a purse of a cool million dollars.  In addition to their share of a $1,000,000 purse, the runners in the Delta Jackpot also have the chance to earn Road to the Kentucky Derby points: 10, 4, 2, and 1, respectively, to the top four finishers.  It has been run since 2002, except for 2005 when Hurricane Rita forced its cancellation. 

Just this spring, it produced its first Classic winner: last year's Jackpot winner, Exaggerator, splashed home a convincing winner of the 2016 Preakness Stakes (GI).  The race has also produced a two-time Breeders' Cup winner: though 2012 Jackpot winner Goldencents found the Classics too long, he proved to be an excellent miler, and won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (GI) in both 2013 and 2014.  From a more local perspective, Birdbirdistheword won the Delta Jackpot in 2006.  Though he never raced in Illinois, he did stand stud in the state after retiring from racing.  His progeny included Timeaday, winner of the 2014 Showtime Deb Stakes at Hawthorne.

The race drew well for morning line favorite GUNNEVERA -- assuming he can take to the smaller track that is Delta Downs, he deserves serious respect.  Gunnevera comes in second off a freshening, and takes a class drop from a fifth-place effort behind Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire last out in the Breeders' Futurity (GI).  A confirmed off-pace type, Gunnevera should be well suited by the setup here.  Line Judge and Hot Sean should be forward, DANGERFIELD should be pushing them along, and both of the Casse pair of THIRSTFORLIFE and OUR STORMIN NORMAN have shown some front-end gas as well.  Gunnevera should be sharper than he was last out, and well tuned to run down the speed.

Behind that, it's price horses who catch this space's eye.

It's always hard to count out GEE MONEY at Delta Downs, and Tip Tap Tapizar gets a long look, as well.  Gerard Melancon returns to the irons with Tip Tap Tapizar after a second-place finish in the local prep, and this start has him second off the lay.  He has tables to turn on Gunnevera, behind whom he was third two starts back in the Saratoga Special (GII).  He also has tables to turn on Line Judge, who beat him in the Jean Lafitte (the local prep) last out.  But, Line Judge will have far more to handle up front.  And, unlike Gunnevera, Tip Tap Tapizar has proven he can handle the Delta course.  On pace, though his maiden win came on the lead, Tip Tap Tapizar came form off the pace to win the Sapling two back, and replicated that style for his second in the local prep.  A reasonable step up in form coming second off the lay, and Tip Tap Tapizar figures at a price.  He is certainly the most attractive option coming from the local prep.

PAT ON THE BACK tries open stakes company for the first time here, as all five of his career starts thus far have come against New York-breds.  But, on speed, he fits with this set.  He has also shown pace versatility.  Last out, he fought early, kicked clear, and scored by daylight in his first time going a mile.  Even though that came on the front, his sprint outings at Saratoga, Finger Lakes, and even Belmont suggest that he has everything he needs to stay engaged and competitive from off the front end as well.  It also stands out who has the call on Pat On the Back: though Robby Albarado rode well-connected J BOYS ECHO in his first two starts, he instead turns up to ride Pat On the Back.

Selections:

#6 Gunnevera (5/2)

#10 Tip Tap Tapizar (10/1)

#1 Pat On the Back (15/1)

Longshot:  #7 Balandeen (10/1) has shown some speed, but has been able to both fight and rate, depending on the circumstances.  Pace is the biggest question, but there are other things to recommend him at a price.  Balandeen finished second last out in the Street Sense Stakes at a one-turn mile, and being by Bernardini out of Mamma Kimbo (a Grade II winner going a mile and a sixteenth), two turns ought to suit him.  A reasonable step forward in his first try going two turns makes Balandeen a contender.  The humans suit, too.  Trainer Chris Hartman has a solid 17% win rate with runners hitting the road.  And, his last two starts suggest a solid rapport with rider Channing Hill, who ships to Cajun country to ride.