Handicapper's Corner: Kentucky Turf Cup (G3)

Maker Seeks Three-Peat in Kentucky Turf Cup

By: Nick Costa, Trackside With Trackman

Our stop this week brings us to the rural southern Kentucky town of Franklin, and a visit to Kentucky Downs, for the 1 1/2-mile G3 Kentucky Turf Cup. Perhaps the most unique racetrack in the United States, Kentucky Downs offers a truly short, but special meet featuring turf racing exclusively for just five days in early September on a course inspired by the reniform European tracks.

This unique surface with its rolling grass course, and slight elevation changes as horses run for the finish line, measures a mile and five sixteenths in length making it one of the longest courses in North America.

As the most prestigious and richest race on this track’s calendar, the $600,000 Kentucky Turf Cup is also a tune-up for the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

The meet is a strong one, and features many top jockeys and trainers. Trainer Mike Maker, who saddled eight winners at the Kentucky Downs meet in 2015 and 2016, including winning the Kentucky Turf Cup both years, seeks his third straight training title and win in this event. Maker, who sends out a quartet of horses for this year's edition, three of which are graded stakes winners, can join Jonathan Sheppard as the only trainers to win the Kentucky Turf Cup three times.

The Kentucky Turf Cup is the final race on the Kentucky Downs 10 race card, with post time slated for 6:42pm E.S.T.  Let's take a glimpse at the field from the rail out.

PP - Horse – ML -  Jockey/Trainer - ML

1 - Postulation – 9-2 - Jose Vargas/Edward Graham--Cuts back in distance here from his American St Leger win while trying to make it three-in-a-row.

2 - Lucky Ramsey – 30-1 - Channing Hill/Randy Morse--Never threatened when well beaten against a weaker group last race.

3 - Muqtaser – 6-1 - Joe Bravo/Kiaran McLaughlin—Combining European/U.S. races, this one has captured 4 of 10 turf starts, including his last two at Saratoga.

4 - Oscar Nominated – 7-2 - Julien Leparoux/Mike Maker--Competed in G1 races his last three starts and wasn't beaten that far at the finish in any of them. Will appreciate the class drop.

5 - Crescent Drive – 20-1 - Miguel Mena/Tom Amoss--Been away from the races for three months. Has never raced this far or against this level of opposition.

6 - Zulu Alpha – 30-1 - Robbie Albarado/Jose Fernandez--Calumet Farm bred runner received his racing education in Ireland before returning home where's he's now won 2 straight.

7 - Enterprising – 3-1 - Corey Lanerie/Mike Maker--Multiple graded stakes winner was less than a length away from taking the Arlington Million. Extra ground here should be beneficial.

8 - Bullards Alley – 12- 1 - Marcelino Pedroza/Tim Glyshaw--This visit marks his seventh different track in as many starts, with his best effort two back at Woodbine.

9 - One Go All Go – 20-1 - Declan Cannon/Pavel Matejka--Was a G2 winner two years ago, but since then he's only managed an allowance optional win, but it came right here on this course one year ago. 

10 - St. Louie – 30-1 - Tyler Gaffalione/Mike Maker--He’ll be comfortable with the distance, but the class level will be a difficult hurdle as his third-place effort in a restricted stakes at Saratoga last out was the highest level at which he's competed at in two dozen starts.

11 - Taghleeb – 5-1 - Jose Ortiz/Mike Make--Was 2^nd in the American St Leger last out and was also runner-up in G1 Man O’War in May. Third-place finisher from that latter event recently won the G1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga. Suits the class and distance.

12 - Nessy – 20-1 - Brian Hernandez/Ian Wilkes--Earned a career high speed figure last race, and also owns a win at this distance, but both came against inferior opposition.

Also Eligible
13 - Motivational – 30-1 - Joe Rocco/Jack Fisher--His 10 in-the-money finishes from 19 starts have been exclusively from competing in lesser company.

14 - Tobias -30-1 - James Graham/Rafael Fernandez--One win from 33 lifetime starts doesn’t inspire me to look any further into this one’s record.

ANALYSIS:

The outcome of turf races are ultimately decided by two factors that dominate on the grass: Late speed and Class.

Last out in the Arlington Million where he suffered a narrow loss, Enterprising was pinned in tight down on the rail, but still managed to close the fastest against the Grade 1 competition, and with a bit more real estate, the outcome could have different.  The six-year old warrior also sports a win Grade 2 company.

His stablemate, Taghleeb, is another veteran of the turf wars and has thrived running these marathon grass events following his claim by Maker last summer. He too has registered some fast late-pace numbers, both at this level and higher.

In my opinion, one of these two horses should get the job done, and I’ll go with the one that has the highest odds come post time.

For tri’s and supers, toss in Postulation, Oscar Nominated and Zulu Alpha, the young runner from Calumet Farm (race sponsor) who is rapidly on the improve and could be any kind.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!