Handicapper's Corner: Woodbine Mile (G1)

Backwheel Tower of Texas in Woodbine Mile

By: Reinier Macatangay, Thoughts on Racing, Life and More

Picking the loser might not make sense to a lot of gamblers. But hear this logic out. In the $800,000 Woodbine Mile (GI) on Saturday at Woodbine Racecourse, none of the top contenders are standouts. With that in mind, certain horses (usually deep closers) are capable of rallying late to make noise, but not win. So, a backwheel is the play. 


But if a horse can get in the mix late, then why can’t he win?



At the end of the day, the right horse should win. Contenders such as World Approval, Deauville, Mondialiste and Lancaster Bomber are all meant to compete in the best races. One of them will find a way to get the job done. Unfortunately, those four horses offer some doubts too, making it difficult to consider any of them a standout.

 
World Approval looked great winning the Fourstardave H. (GI) at Saratoga. However, running on wet turf is his specialty, and no rain is currently forecast for the weekend. Disregarding the surface condition, this 5-year-old gelding from the Mark Casse barn does seem to excel in 1 to 1 1/8^th-mile races. The one-mile distance will help. 


As for Aidan O’Brien’s Deauville, he seems highly regarded and built a fanbase over the past year. He never runs particularly fast though, at least not in North America. His last three BRIS Speed Ratings over here are 95, 94 and 92. Furthermore, he blew a good trip in the Arlington Million (GI) to lose as the favorite. Can he be trusted alone?

 
Mondialiste, despite his status as 2015 champion, enters this year’s edition at 8-1 on the morning line. He comes off a sixth-place finish in the Strensall S. (GIII) at York, but supporters can forgive the effort after watching the replay. Most of the horses loped along on a moderate to slow pace, leaving Mondialiste too much work to do. 


O’Brien’s second runner Lancaster Bomber looks like another logical choice. In Europe, he competed against the likes of Churchill, Thunder Snow and more. But he also proved himself on this continent, finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (GI) to Oscar Performance. The fact he only owns one win is a bit concerning.

 
With so many question marks, it can get confusing on which top horse to choose. Mondialiste might get the edge from a value standpoint because the money will go towards Deauville and Lancaster Bomber.

If playing the race vertically though, then perhaps the value is found underneath in Tower of Texas.

Yes, Tower of Texas finished fourth in the Play the King (GII) against weaker horses. He also became blocked at critical points in the race. Once the 6-year-old gelding found an open lane late, he began to make a decent move. Furthermore, as a closer he will not be compromised trying to handle early heat from the higher-class runners.

The connections like going with the same routine. Tower of Texas finished second in this race last year to a future Hall of Fame star in Tepin. The effort came after finishing runner-up in the 2016 Play the King. In 2015, he also ran second in the Play the King, before a disappointing seventh-place finish in Mondialiste’s Woodbine Mile.

His 2016 run shows he can compete at the highest level, and no Tepins exist in this Woodbine Mile. But Tower of Texas is simply not trustworthy to place on top. After all this time, it should seem clear where his class stands.

He can pick off enough horses to make the vertical wagers interesting. 


Handigambling ($100) 
$3 Trifectas – 1,6,8,10 / 1,6,7,8,10,11,12 / 2
($72 in all)

$7 Exactas – 1,6,8,10 / 2
($28 in all)