Handicapper's Corner: Northern Dancer Turf Stakes (G1)

Value Plays in the Northern Dancer Stakes

By: Robert Marks, They're in the Gate (and on Twitter @theyreinthegate)

The Northern Dancer Turf Stakes is a Saturday 9/16/17 held at Woodbine racetrack in Toronto, Ontario in mid-September. A Grade I event with a current purse of C$300,000, it is run at a distance of  1 ¹⁄₂ miles on Woodbine's E. P. Taylor turf course. We have a small field of horses with one big favorite.

Here are the participants listed by Post Positions, Horse, Jockey and odds:

1. English Illusion, Eurico Rosa Da Silva, 20-1

2. Camp Creek, Manuel Hernandez, 20-1

3. Noble Thought, Patrick Husbands, 5-1

4. Messi, Jose Ortiz, 4-1

5. Pumpkin Rumble, Jesse Campbell 12-1

6. Seeking Albert, David Moran 15-1

7 Johnny Bear, Luis Contreras 15-1

8 Hawkbill Colm O’Donoghue 3-5

Here is who we like

Hawkbill- The clear class of the field here-this horse sired by Kitten’s Joy, he comes across the big pond looking pretty impressive with a lot of black type races and wins in his ledger. He likes to run in the front and I don’t see anyone catching him. Our rule is not too bet a short odds horse in a short field so we will try to hit the trifecta looking for 2 horses with value.

Johnny Bear- -This horse has won here at same distance on August 30^th in the Halton Stakes for Canadian Breds. We always like a horse and jockey that know the turf course and the distance. If anyone can pass the favorite late, it’s a horse and jock that have been there before. Never count out a horse’s memory.  

Camp Creek-This light raced 4-year-old did run this same race last year, finishing 6^th. Has only 1 win in 8 starts, but that one win did come at Woodbine in last year’s Breeders Stakes. He hasn’t raced since May, that being at 1 ¼ miles at Belmont Park. But he has looked good at workouts and could clunk up to grab a piece of the exotics.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Box: $20 Exacta Box ($20)

1,7

Trifecta ($10 Box for $60 Total)

1,2,7

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!  a