Handicapper's Corner: Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI)

Jockey Club Gold Cup: There May be a Few Tears Shed After this Race is Run

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

The Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI) race is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Race which entitles the winner automatic entry into the Breeders’ Cup Classic to be run on November 4, 2017. The seven-horse field are well established runners. However, none of them have won a previous Challenge race giving them an automatic ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. We can expect a very exciting race with a great deal on the line for each connection.

Morning Line odds have landed squarely on one horse, Keen Ice. Yet, others will easily challenge that status. Let’s look at the rest of the field.

    1.   Diversify (Bellamy Road) is the lone speed out of the gate and may try to wire the race as he did in his last stakes race at Saratoga. Distance and class will be his problem. But, he should not be left out of exotics.

   2.   Highland Sky (Sky Mesa) is the long shot trying dirt after many grass attempts. His performance over the Belmont turf course in the 10-furlong Belmont Derby needs not to be overlooked. Trainer Tagg is not great running turf to dirt (17%). Be cautious.

    3.   Good Samaritan (Harlan’s Holiday) shocked many with his win in the grade two Jim Dandy at Saratoga in August. He regressed in the Travers, but keeps Joel Rosario as his jockey. The 42 day rest since then should have him back in top form. He gets blinkers for the first time –a Mott angle. His age may work against his chances.

    4.   Pavel (Creative Cause) was beaten soundly by Good Samaritan in the Jim Dandy. He came back in the Smarty jones at Parx. That race took a lot to win and with only a 33 day layoff, look for a bounce. Another 3-year-old against older.

    5.   Rally Cry (Uncle Mo) stayed competitive with Gun Runner, until the latter decided to shift gears and run. Without Gun Runner in the race, he will be tough. He regressed slightly last out. Should be ready to run a nice race using his tactical speed effectively.

    6.   Destin (Giant’s Causeway) is trying to regain his 2016 form. His last two suggest that he is on the right path. Jockey Velazquez decision to stay with Rally Cry over him may be the “tell”.

    7.   Keen Ice (Curlin) is a strong 5-year-old that is always competitive. The distance is a plus. His strong Beyer figures and current form validate his morning line favorite status.

The two 3-year-olds in the race, Good Samaitan and Pavel, will be challenged by the more mature. Neither look like the likely winner. Early speed duel between Diversify and Destin might set the race up for a rush down the stretch in the last quarter mile. The benefactors of this scenario will be Keen Ice and Rally Cry. Keen Ice has only one win in 2016-17, although his last could be excused by the stumble out of the gate in the Whitney Stakes (GI). Rally Cry has had only one throw-out race in his last six. Here is how they will likely finish:

    1.   Rally Cry (#5)

    2.   Keen Ice (#7)

    3.   Highland Sky (#2)

    4.   Diversify (#1)

Handigamble:

    A.   $20 to win on Rally Cry (#5) ($20)

    B.   $10 exacta box---Rally Cry (#5) and Keen Ice (#7) ($20)

    C.   $20 Exacta ---  Rally Cry (#5) 0ver Keen Ice (#7)    ($20)

    D.   $2 Trifecta Key --- Rally Cry with Keen ice (#7), Highland Sky (#2), Destin (#6) and Diversify (#1)

($24)

   E.   $.50 Trifecta Box -- Rally Cry (#5), Keen Ice (#7), Highland Sky (#2) and Diversify (#1) ($12)

That leaves $4 to tip the bartender.