High Longshot Potential in Bluegrass Stakes
By Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
This
year’s Bluegrass Stakes field is wide open, and few of the colts look like
legitimate 2019 Kentucky Derby Contenders.
In fact, only 2 of the 14 won their last start and less than half hit
the board.
The
top four will earn 100-40-20-10
qualifying points. Let’s take a look at
the field and try to weed out the contenders from the pretenders.
Contenders
Vekoma — should be sharper 2nd time around.
The drawback is his paddling gait. That takes energy to sustain. He’s one of
the few in here with a graded stakes win, so have to consider.
Signalman —no clue what happened in
his 3-year-old debut. Pedigree is iffy for 1 1/8-miles, but he does have back
class. I’m ready to draw a line through the last.
Win Win Win — In all but one start,
this guy has made up ground in the stretch. Good speed figures, and never out
of the money. Can sit anywhere in the field. He could be our win win winner.
Sir Winston — made a late rush in the Tampa Bay Derby and
sure, he was bested by 4 lengths, but he made up 6 in the stretch. Plus he has
the pedigree to love the extra distance.
Longshot
Potential
Market King — speed figures have
improved in each start, although they aren’t very high. Still, a 3 or 4 point jump will put him right
there. Note that Jon Court does well with this guy and Market King is trained
by sneaky D. Wayne.
Chess Chief — There’s some stoutness
in the bottom half of this well-bred colt’s pedigree, and it looks like the
lightbulb went on when he got to go 2 turns. Post-race breezes look good and
Dallas Stewart knows how to get late-blooming 3-year-olds ready.
So Alive — The Silver Fox and Saez
at 15-1? Maybe that odds maker isn’t smoking anything and needs to. Out of the
money only once, decent late pace speed figures and a pedigree to enjoy the
distance. Deserves another shot.
Aquadini — This stablemate to
Chess Chief is well bred and should handle the distance. The far outside post
isn’t that great, and Corey will either have to go early to get position or get
stuck wide.
Somelikeithotbrown — Pros for the Jeff Ruby
Stakes winner is that he’s speed on the rail. But he staggered through the
stretch like he was in the last stages of a pub crawl. The dull final furlong of
14.21 doesn’t impress me. Still, this isn’t the strongest field.
Lucky Lee — Maybe the PARX mojo the
Servis trainee had going doesn’t extend to other tracks. Could be a
need-the-lead sort, but doesn’t look like another Maximum Security. Pedigree
says he should handle the distance if they let him loose on the lead. That
can’t happen again, can it?
Pretenders
Dream Maker — In the Tampa Bay Derby,
Dream Maker was bumped around a bit at the start and looked rank while
climbing. He also looked like he didn’t corner all that great. Doesn’t act or
run like he want’s anything to do with the stakes scene. Pity, ‘cause he has a
good stamina pedigree.
Admire — Does his best work on a
wet track, but no rain scheduled for Saturday. Can’t find anything to admire about this one.
Parsimony — Hasn’t finished in the
same zip code as Gunmetal Gray and Roadser, and has seconditis. I see green in
his future, and it isn’t a check for the winner’s share of the Bluegrass.
Moonster — Have seen faster
snails.
SELECTIONS
No discernable track bias in the last five editions of the
Bluegrass Stakes. Only two colts won the
Blue Grass off a last out victory. Carpe Diem in 2015 and Dominican in 2007. Tampa
form holds up here. Two of the last five winners and two second-place finishers
last raced there.
The Bluegrass is noted for producing surprise winners at long
odds.
#11 So Alive (15/1)
#8 Win Win Win (7/2)
#9 Sir Winston (15/1)
#5 Chess Chief (30-1)
Handigambling:
So
many possibilities with a full, wide open field in a race noted for producing
large longshot payouts. So, play the
field with a bunch of 10.-cent supers, or toss a few dollars on longshots that
look good leading up to the race.
$0.10
Key Supers on: #2, #3, #4, #5, #8, #9, #11
= $12 each.
