Handicapper's Corner: Beholder Stakes (G1)

Small but Select Field in Beholder Stakes

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan Member

While a small field of 6 will contest Saturday's Grade I, $400,000 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita Park the field collectively has 13 graded stakes victories among them.

1 Munny Spunt — Supplemented entry into the race for $8,000.  Has raced in just 3 graded races in her career.  14 of her 15 starts have been sprinting.  Her lone start around 2 turns was a sharp second place finish in the one-mile Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes last August at Del Mar.  Looks a couple of steps below the rest of the competition.

2 Mopotism — Raced just 8 days ago in the Grade One Gamely at 1 1/8 miles on the turf and didn’t do much running.  Four starts at the one-mile distance on the dirt with three wins and a second.  Last win was at this mile distance on the dirt in the grade two LaCanada back in January.  She may be worth a flier if she is anywhere around her morning line odds of 15-1.

3 La Force — Hard knocking honest as they come filly is lacking in graded wins.  Would be a surprise if she won this, but I won’t be surprised to see her hit the board.

4 Paradise Woods — Winner of last year’s Grade I Santa Anita Oaks. Ran sixth as the 1-5 favorite in the Grade III Torrey Pines Stakes (see Munny Spunt), Won the Grade I, 1 1/16-mile Zenyatta Stakes back in September. Ran a good second, beaten by Unique Bella in the Grade I, seven furlong La Brea Stakes two starts back in December.  Second start off the layoff and working well.

5 Vale Dori — Six-year-old mare had a great 2017 campaign with three wins and two seconds including.  Finished second in this race last year beaten a neck by Stellar Wind. Money Mike Smith stick with Unique Bella, Rafael Bejarano returns having guided her to four wins from seven tries previously, including Grade I 2017 Santa Margarita Stakes.  Bring speed and should make a better account of herself this being second off the layoff.

6 Unique Bella — Six wins and a second at Santa Anita.  Didn’t seem to care much for the off going in the Apple Blossom in April finishing second at 1-5.  Straight to the chase, looking for a much-improved effort from this gray filly today.

Selections:   6-5-4

Wager:         $100 Win 6

Have A Day

Mike Mills

 

Handicapper's Corner: Gamely Stakes (G1)

Uni Hard to Play Against in Gamely Stakes

By: Reinier Macatangay, Let's Waste Money

With trainer Chad Brown dominating the turf racing scene, it is hard to play against him in the Grade 1, $300,000 Gamely Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita. This time he brings in Uni, a 4-year-old filly who comes into Southern California with a 2 for 5 record in North America, along with a second and one third. She is tough.

 

This race is tough too, with a few runners who look like they can win on any given day, but fall short of excellence. Whose turn will it be this weekend? 

 

This write-up will go through each runner.

1) Madam Dancealot – It should be noted she finished ahead of Uni in the Queen Elizabeth Cup (G2) at Keeneland last October. In four races since then, she has performed steadily and did manage to take the Santa Ana Stakes (G2). There is nothing to get too excited about here, although she is a contender.

 

2) Midnight Crossing – The runner-up in the Santa Ana did pick up a win in the Frankel Stakes (G3) last December. She followed up with an eighth-place finish in the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, and also finished eighth in the Royal Heroine (G3) after the good Santa Ana try. Confusing read.

3) Mopotism – No turf races on record. Bernardini as the damsire is not the greatest sign when searching for grass in the pedigree. While bloodlines do not always pan out and she could love the grass, prefer to pass for now.

4) Sophie P – She tipped out for a clear run in the Royal Heroine but offered no run while finishing sixth. This is probably not a realistic contender.

5) Uni – As stated earlier, she owns two wins in North America. The latest one came this year at Aqueduct in an ungraded stakes race, where TimeformUS awarded her a lofty 125 Speed Figure. Her previous numbers never went above 121. Perhaps Uni is more mature and stronger than in her previous season. She had no pace to work with in the Queen Elizabeth Cup (G2). The main choice.

6) Beau Recall – Royal Heroine effort looks superb in replay, as she came late with a quick outside move and scored the win. Toss out the turf sprint race two starts ago. Before that, she finished behind Madame Dancealot twice when competing in the American Oaks (G1) and Queen Elizabeth Cup, with no pace to help her kick in the latter race. While she does not stand out, it will not be a surprise to see this one come late again and win either. Another solid contender.

7) Hawksmoor – Speedy mare would benefit from taking the lead early. TimeformUS Pace Projector puts her on the lead without a fast pace, but it does not always work out that way. She began the year by finishing second by a nose in an ungraded stakes at Laurel (not Yanny) Park. The 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned last November at Del Mar in the Matriarch (G1) is good enough to win this. Yet another contender in a competitive-looking race.

8) Madame Stripes – At least she owns some tactical speed. Plus, her speed figures fit with this group, although none of them stick out except the 123 earned last September in the John C. Mabee Stakes (G2). The connections seem content with racing this mare in mostly one-mile races though, which could hint at distance limitations. Then again, the Mabee effort came at 1 1/8 miles. Also, the TimeformUS trainer rating labels Neil Drysdale as hot. Contender.

Handigambling $100
$40 Win - Uni
$3 Trifecta ($60 in all) – 5 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8

Pass if Uni becomes overbet. 

Handicapper's Corner: 2018 Preakness Stakes

Who We Like in the 2018 Preakness Stakes 

Congratulations to Reinier Macatangay & Robert Marks for picking Justify on top in the Kentucky Derby.

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers take their best shot at the 2018 Preakness. The consensus comes down to Justify vs. Good Magic for the win spot.  Picks are for first through third place and their best longshot bomb. 

Good Luck to everyone and Get Your Preak On!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Good Magic	Justify	Tenfold	Bravazo
John Caro	Good Magic	Lone Sailor	Justify	Quip
Nick Costa	Good Magic	Justify	Quip	Bravazo
Reinier Macatangay	Justify	Good Magic	Lone Sailor	Bravazo
Michael Mills	Justify	Lone Sailor	Good Magic	Diamond King
Nicolle Neulist	Justify	Good Magic	Lone Sailor	Quip
Laurie Ross	Justify	Lone Sailor	Good Magic	Tenfold