Saturday at
5:22 pm Eastern time is the $200,000 Grade 3 Stakes for 4-year-olds and upward
on dirt at 6 furlongs at Oaklawn Racetrack.
On a quiet
weekend for Derby Prep races, this will be a good race to dive into with a
fairly large field of ten.The NCAA 2nd
round will have games all day Saturday, but take a break from the hoops and put
some coins on the Whitmore Stakes
Named after
multiple Graded Stakes and Breeders Cup winner, Whitmore, this would be a nice
notch on the belt for anyone who could win this race.
Here is a
look at who we will be betting:
Running out
of the 2-hole, Tejano Twist is your morning line favorite (3-1).This 4 year old gelding comes off a 2nd place
performance losing by 4 lengths to Gunite at Oaklawn. Tejano Twist rallied late
moving from 4th to 2nd down the stretch. Gunite is not here, as he went to
Dubai after that race so Tejano deserves a strong look.Miles Ahead and Flash of Mischief ran 3rd and
4th in the same race. Don’t see how they move up in this race.
Edge to
Edge, at 4-1, is 2-2
over this course and distance. He will be on the front end as he runs a get out
front and catch me style.
Cogburn, (7-2) trained by Steve Asmussen, has
2 wins out of 3 starts at Oaklawn with his last win allowance race at Oaklawn
where he regained the lead late and held on for 1st.
Spankster (8-1) came in 3rd, about ¾ length
back of Cogburn. Spankster followed that up with an Allowance Optional Claiming
win at Oaklawn Racetrack showing an nice kick passing 2 horses in the stretch
to win. Assmussen also has a 2nd horse in here, Morello, but he is too
inconsistent for me to pick him.
Seems like
this race will set up for horses finishing late. I look for Edge to Edge to be
your early leader out front, setting fast fractions. We also think Empire Gold
and Pirate Rick will be out front. Cogburn may be there early also, be Jockey
Ricardo Santana Jr. can get him to rate, this may set him for a placing finish.
We see a very
fast early pace with a combination of Cogburn, Tejano Twist and Spankster
battling late for the wire. If we can get Spankster at 8-1 on top, we can cash
decently.
Bets: $100
dollar Budget
$50-win
Spankster
$2
Trifecta Box: Cogburn, Tejano Twist, Spankster (total bet $48)
Beholder, the namesake for this classic race, was just
inducted into the Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Fame in 2022 at age 12—her first
year of eligibility.
The induction was understandable simply by looking over
her career. One of her 18 wins came in the Pacific Classic where she beat the
boys.
And of course we all remember that 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff where she
defeated champion filly Songbird by a nose. There remains no doubt why this week’s
mile race is named in her honor.
The field of eight running in this prestigious mile race run
over the dirt course at Santa Anita. Weather forecasts call for a good amount
of rain with the likelihood that the track will be off. Here is the field:
1.Kirstenbosch (Midnight Lute) is
progressing over the last five races. Won last over an off Santa Anita surface with
a Tomlinson wet rating of 384. Looks to sit off the place, but may not be fast
enough to finish with the rest.
2.Pauline’s Pearl (Tapit) is shortening up to
a mile for the first time. Closed to win the last on a muddy track with a legitimate
speed figure, however not her best. Owns a bullet workout. Gets new jockey,
Johnny Velazquez. Will be tough to beat.
3.Awake At Midnyte (Nyquist) finished
second in the LaBrea Stakes (GI). Did less well in next race which raises
questions of actual form and readiness for this level. No experience over a
muddy track. Maybe in exotics.
4.Midnight Memories (Mastery) one of three
runners trained by Bob Baffert. Has a bullet workout and a grade three mile win
at Del Mar. Will likely want to control the early pace and will avoid mud
kick-back. Has four front-end wins out of six tries. Could be close at the
wire.
5.A Mo Reay (Uncle Mo) showed a liking for
an off track with a win in a non-graded stakes races at the Fair Grounds with a
389 Tomlinson wet rating. Most experienced miler. Thorograph numbers suggest
ready to run, maybe not with these. She was a $400,000 purchase at the November
2022 sale.
6.Ganadora (Quality Road) is a daughter of
Quality Road that sold as a yearling for $1 million. Likely will join other
Baffert-trained for the lead. Gets new jockey. She tries grade one level for
the second time finishing in 5th off by 6 lengths in the LaBrea
Stakes (GI).
7.Desert Dawn (Cupid) finished an
impressive 3rd on wet-fast track in the 2022 Kentucky Oaks (GI)
behind Secret Oath and Nest. Holds a Tomlinson wet rating of 407 for that
effort. Working nicely with a bullet last week at Santa Anita. Could surprise.
8.Fun to Dream (Arrogate) homebred in
partnership with Bob Baffert. With Baffert’s other two runners setting the
pace, she will be coming down the stretch. She boast’s a 6-for7 win record of
which she is 4-for-4 over the Santa Anita track. Speed figures put her in the
mix. Possible.
The strength of the race may be with the closers. The
condition of the track may change that for deep closers. Strategically placed
horses should do better. The two pace setters are fast and will heat-up the
pace. The outside posts may avoid the heavy, wet kick-back and finish well.
Here is how I see the race finishing:
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, and thank you to the good people at The Thorofan for having me today. My blog primarily focuses on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. I've handicapped dirt races for the better part of 35 years, so I'm capable, it's just not my blog's primary focus. I hope you give me a read and good luck if you are playing.
Classic Distance racing always a bit of a wildcard for veteran older horses: 11 starts for this field at that distance, 2 wins and 4 Place/Shows. Tomlinson's, always a bit murky, have Hopper 372 and next closest 50 points lower. That's a good spread for comparing Tomlinson's but is Hopper the pick?. Focus on the key metrics every race when building your base handicap: Class, Current Form, Early and Late Speed, Distances, Track Record, Trainer/Rider stats, In the Money and Wins over surface. If you hit the key variables in the base handicap, it puts you in a good position to focus on the nuance during bet construction: pace, trainer intentions, post positions, tote board odds.
Ultimately you will grade yourself on a few metrics: Did I make a return on my betting capital? Was my handicap any good? Does my analysis of the Past Performances justify continued betting on that surface, that age range, that track? Did I have fun? I'm no gambling whale. I'm just a nobody who likes horses, like's to write about race handicapping, and talks about himself in the third person. All that said, I do this because it brings me joy and I have fun. I think in modern times there are far easier ways to make money in sports betting, so if you are reading this, I hope you agree with me.
Let's get after it!
The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles for 4 YO and UP
I don't want to spend too much time on video as I don't think there are many races relevant for current form with this field.
The San Pasqual Grade 2: 1 1/8 Fast Dirt SA 28 January 2023
Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt GP; 28 January 2023
The San Antonio Grade 2: 1 1/16 Miles over Fast Dirt SA: 26 December 2022
So what do we make of it? I think you could legitimately make a case for the top 7 in my base handicap to win.
Defunded is a Grade 1 horse and gives nothing regarding class. Good mix of early tactical and late speed. Training well for Baffert after trip to GP in late January. J Hernandez is up and 26% winner this meet and him and Baffert at SA over rolling year are 35% winners. 5 of 6 in the money at Santa Anita, 10 of 14 in the money over fast dirt, 9 of 14 lifetime exacta finish, one classic distance start, last year's Gold Cup G1 at SA, finishing Place to There Goes Harvard.
Hollywood (Ha!) Gold Cup G1: 1 1/14 Miles Fast Dirt SA: 30 May 2022
A five horse field with lousy pace scenario is no reason to change thinking. Different race, different field, different point in horse form.
Proxy is a fringe Grade 1 contender, winning the Grade 1 Clark last year. Matches or comes close to Defunded's class level. Solid early speed but excellent late turn of foot. First SA start. Only second attempt at Distance for this millionaire. Pace, and how we feel about the pace scenario, will play a key role, but I do like his far outside start and his ability to be sitting midpack for critical part of race.
Newgrange and Stilleto Boy form my next grouping. Newgrange gets Dettori up (21% winner 85 starts) this meet and enters off last race win in the San Pasqual G2. Fast Early, decent late speed. Violence colt is solid Grade 2 and gives up one rating in class to the best here. 4 YO and already $750K earnings. 5 wins in 8 starts, 3 wins in 3 starts at SA , 7 of 8 in the money over fast dirt. Pay attention to tote board.
Stilleto Boy is the proverbial "hanging around the hoop" colt, putting up $1.4 MM in earnings with 3 wins but 15 of 20 in the money. Owner/Trainer Moger's not afraid to take this Shackleford colt go head to head with anyone. Dangerous. Fast early/solid late speed. Kent Desormeaux up as Mike Smith jumps to Hopper. 1 win in 6 SA Starts but 5 of 6 in the money.
There Goes Harvard, a 5 YO Mike McCarthy conditioned horse had a turf to G1 dirt win last year and tries again after going in a 1 mile Turf run at SA in early February. Sharp work on 18 February. 2 Classic Distance starts, 2 exacta finishes. 6 starts at SA, 6 in the money finishes. Solid, not spectacular.
Warrant gives up two class ranks and is a solid G3 runner. Cox and Prat are 39% winners rolling year outside of SA. Prat's meet has been forgettable at 11%. Place by a head in last year's race edition, a lifetime best Beyer for what that's worth. 9 of 13 lifetime starts in exacta.
And finally Hopper, a 4 YO in 5th start, is very very fast early but seems to be in deep waters here. Started on rail in San Pasqual and yielded late presumably after shortest run. A huge wildcard, does he rabbit or does Smith, up for first time on him, wait?
6 YO Heywoods Beach will be back early and can close fast late. Really comes down to how this one plays out.
I don't think this will be a race that the best horses can't manage the pace. Defunded and Proxy can both manage the speed tactics, as well as Newgrange and Stilleto Boy. I do think Baffert will send Hopper early for Defunded to target later. Some other late speed to consider is the 5 YO Curlin trained by Joe Sharp, Scarlet Fusion.
I'll be paying attention to the tote board and looking for value in my exacta. I may look at Defunded and/or Proxy OVER Value: There Goes Harvard, Warrant, Haywoods Beach, Scarlet Fusion, possibly Proxy.
If I single Defunded it's a $2 bet for $10 and if I hedge Proxy in both spots its a $18 bet. I'll be clear and place the $10 bet.
