Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Holy Bull Stakes (G3)

 Will Speed Rule the Holy Bull Stakes?

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 

The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) is the first in a series of prep races at Gulfstream leading to the Florida Derby and the 2023 Kentucky Derby. There are points involved and competition will be quite keen.

There are some speed balls entered and as we know from past races at Gulfstream it is a speed favoring track. The one factor that might play a card this time is the weather. Although it's been super here for the week, a frontal passage Friday might bless us with some rain. Which may play a factor in the outcome.

Looking back at some races, two stuck out. 2020, Tiz The Law who jumped to the front, got passed, shuffled back and re- rallied to take the race. Was he really a front runner? Maybe, but he was able to track wisely in traffic and catch them on the later part of the turn.

2019, was all about the speed duel  between the Ortiz brothers and they out did themselves. Harvey Wallbanger shot to the rail and slipped through with a thunderous roar to take the money at 25-1. 

There is no question in this race we have speed on top of speed. Which presents a question. Do ya play for the speed of the speed, a tracking sort or the one who can track a pace and close?

 

I like the track and close idea. Not a horse that comes from way off the pace but sets up mid to early and can make a move to the lead in a situation where the wire is early for the mile and a sixteenth. Only two horses have proven at the distance. 

#4 Cyclone Mischief (2-1) – Romans/Gaffalione and #8 Rocket Can (7-2) – Mott/Alvarado. Both have gone the distance twice and won once, both are from their great dad, Into Mischief, both rate close to the par speed but only Rocket Can has run in the slop at 96 and closed at 108. I think Rocket Can is more tactical could side in the cat bird seat and make the right move at the right time.

There is no doubt that #6 Legacy Isle (7-2) – Crichton/Saez is the early speed of the speed with Cyclone Mischief right behind and Rocket Can can choose to track.

There is a probability #5 Mr Bob might try to press the pace with the leaders. Both the #1 and 2 trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr. and riden by Irad Ortiz and Edgard Zayas might be involved late. #1 was third in the Mucho Macho Man against Cyclone Mischief. 

The #3 Shadow Dragon (15-1) – Mott/Ortiz, JL – won his maiden as is consistent with animals coming from Army Mule and Mott must have seen something that needed adjustment since he hasn't been seen for three months to enter here. Caution!!!: Mott brings horses off a long rest with exceptional results…e.g. Art Collector, and I expect we'll see something from this lad.

As I said earlier, I like a horse that can be tactical, with speed who can close. The weather being a factor I put Rocket Can on top today.

Handigambling

$2  Trifecta  -  8 with 1, 4, 3 with All    = $36

$2 Exacta Box – 1, 3, 4, 8                       = $24

$7 Win 3, $14 Show 3                             = $21

Good luck to everyone…..See you at the Florida Derby

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Pegasus World Cup International

Horse-by-Horse review and betting the Pegasus International

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

ThoroFan heads south to the Sunshine state on Saturday, January 28, where the $3 million G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational returns to Gulfstream Park.

Now in its seventh year, the Pegasus World Cup, a 1 1/8-mile event for older horses, headlines a stellar 13-race program that will also feature the $1 million 1 1/8-mile G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational and the $500,000 1 1/16-mile G3 Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf, as well as four other graded stakes. First-race post time is set for 10:50 a.m.

The Pegasus World Cup is one of the richest and most prestigious races of the year in North America, and it always attracts an outstanding field. The 2023 edition will be no different with a full field of twelve exciting contenders ready to take down the Grade 1 title.

Post time for the Pegasus World Cup Invitational race is slated for 5:40 p.m. NBC will be on site to nationally televise the World Cup festivities from 4:30 p.m. to 6 p.m. Let’s look at the horses from the rail out.

 

PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML

1 - Proxy – Joel Rosario/Michael Stidham – 9-2 - Five-year-old earned his first stakes victory and first G1 score when delivering a commanding win in the Clark Stakes to close out his 2022 campaign. Prior to that breakout performance, he was on the fringes with close finishes against G2/G3 stakes company. His win in the aforementioned Clark at the 1 1/8-mile distance certainly strengthens his case and makes him a real win threat here. Look for him to be coming on late through the stretch.

2 - Simplification – Paco Lopez/Antonio Sano – 15-1 - Newly turned 4-year-old exits a third-place finish in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes on New Year’s Eve over this surface. His best performances, including his latest, have all come at Gulfstream where he has registered all three career wins.

Can be considered a ‘horse for course’ type and should be respected off those accolades on this track. 

3 - Riden With Biden – Julian Leparoux/Robert Reid – 20-1 – Ships down from Parx off a mini two-race win streak and was a winner of 3 of his last 4 there, including the G3 Greenwood Cup Stakes, but this is a major step up in class and his speed figures pale in comparison against his rivals. Looks to be part of a lively pace before the anchor drops.

4 - White Abarrio – Tyler Gafflione/Saffie Joseph – 10-1 - Grey colt has been blanked in five races since his last win on this track in the Florida Derby last April. That G1 win came at the same distance as the Pegasus World Cup. Finished third last out in the G1 Cigar Mile in New York, and is another ‘horse for course’, with a perfect record of four wins from four starts on the Gulfstream dirt and could thrive on his return to South Florida.

5 - Defunded – Irad Ortiz/Bob Baffert – 6-1 - He became a G1 winner two races back when winning the Awesome Again, before putting in a strong performance in his last outing to clinch the Native Diver. Both wins came at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Trainer Baffert holds the record for the most wins in this event, having saddled the winners in Arrogate (2017) and Mucho Gusto (2020). He’s the expected pacesetter, or at least, will be in the early mix and his class could keep him around for a piece of the pie.

6 - Art Collector – Junior Alvarado/Bill Mott – 10-1 - Six-year-old has won 10 of 20 career starts, garnering well over $2 million in earnings. As an older runner, he won the 2021 edition of the G1 Woodward Stakes and the 2021 and 2022 running’s of the G2 Charles Town Classic Stakes. He has a lot of wins but has also disappointed just as often. Another one with early foot who must go up against others speed types and may not keep up late.

7 – Skippylongstocking – Jose Ortiz/Saffie Joseph – 5-1 – This colt could be on the verge of a big 4-year-old campaign after closing out his 3-year-old season with arguably his career-best race with a stylish victory over the Gulfstream Park dirt surface in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday, the local prep for the Pegasus. He showed considerable promise throughout the 2023 season, winning the G3 West Virginia Derby and placing third in the G1 Belmont Stakes. He’s got momentum and must be considered a legitimate win candidate in this spot.

8 - Get Her Number – Luis Saez/Peter Miller – 15-1 – Was beaten a narrow head in the G1 Cigar Mile to close out his 4-year-old season. His three wins in 2023 have all come sprinting against optional allowance company. Last summer he was second in the G1 Bing Crosby and a non-factor in his subsequent run in the G2 Pat O’Brien, both at Del Mar. He’s stepping up to try nine-furlongs against stiff competition and needs a miracle.

9 - Last Samurai -Lanfranco Dettori/D. Wayne Lukas – 20-1 – Ships in for the Coach. Five-year-old was a convincing four length winner of the G2 Oaklawn Handicap back in April but was outmatched in a subsequent trio of G2 races. Two back he was a well beaten fourth in the G1 Clark, and then just failed to win a minor stakes at Oaklawn. Severely outclassed but will probably get some support due to the Lukas factor and the presence of Dettori.

10 - Cyberknife – Florent Geroux/Brad Cox – 5-2 - The likely post time favorite will be making his final career start and will try to emulate his sire who won this race in 2018 before heading off to the breeding shed. This colt was one of the leading 3-year-olds last year, winning a pair of G1’s (Arkansas Derby and Haskell Stakes). He concluded his sophomore season in November with a solid runner-up finish in the G1 B.C. Dirt Mile. The one to beat.

11 - Stilleto Boy – Mike Smith/Ed Moger – 30-1 – West Coast invader returns this year after filling out the trifecta spot in last year’s Pegasus behind the two favorites. Comes in off a runner-up showing in the G2 San Antonio at Santa Anita where he put in his best showing last year winning the G2 Californian, going wire-to-wire. Might prove difficult to replicate that win on the front end here with other fleet-footed runners to his inside.

12 - O’Connor – Javier Castellano/Saffie Joseph – 10-1 - Six-year-old Chilean-bred runner won half of his 18 starts in Chile, including a pair of Group 3’s and a Group 1 and then in his U.S. debut last October, he turned in a sparkling six-length at Gulfstream Park. Most recently, he finished fourth as the favorite in Harlan’s Holiday, but that performance may have been affected by one of his glue-on shoes separating during the race. Longshot should give a better showing here, but it won’t be enough to get it done from out here.

Also Eligible:

Endorsed – Julian Leparoux/Mike Maker – 15-1 - Fourth in this event last year, but was well below par in a pair of subsequent G3 contests. His current form and speed figures are eons away from what it would take to even make an impact.

 

Analysis: The Pegasus Stakes has always been run true to form for the race favorite. Four of the previous winners were the post time betting choices and two other winners were second choice in the wagering. That bodes well for Cyberknife, who is expected to be the betting favorite for the seventh running. The Brad Cox colt holds a class edge and any one of his speed figures from his last four starts certainly can get it done here, barring something unforeseen that would result in a big upset.

Outside posts at Gulfstream have traditionally been a hinderance to horses exiting them, and not only is Cyberknife trying to do what his sire Gun Runner did five years ago, which is, end his racing career on a winning note, but he’ll have to do it breaking from the same post 10 as dear old dad did.

I’m comfortable backing Cyberknife can do it. I don’t really see a reason why he gets beat in this race. He has the best races, has the talent, has excelled at the nine-furlong distance and should get a favorable pace set up from just behind the leaders. In addition, Geroux knows this horse very well and he knows how to time rides like this.

Wager: $100 ThoroFan mythical dollars to be played in the following manner

$30 win on Cyberknife - $10 exactas Cyberknife over Skippylongstocking, Defunded and Proxy.

$5 Trifecta Key – Key Cyberknife over the same three horses. Cost $30

Also, Skippylongstocking is a bonafide win threat who I respect and will use in a $10 reverse exacta with my top choice.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Lecomte Stakes (G3)

 2023 Lecomte Stakes Analysis

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

The Lecomte Stakes (G3) on Saturday is the second of four 2023 Kentucky Derby points races at Fair Grounds. The series started with the Gun Runner on December 26 and continues with the Risen Star (G2) and the Louisiana Derby (G2).

The race takes its name from Lecomte: an equine star of the 1850s, a half-sister to Saratoga stakes namesake Prioress, and the only horse to defeat the great Lexington.  Though Lecomte was bred in Kentucky, he went to Louisiana as a yearling. He was named after his owner’s friend Ambrose Lecomte, a Louisiana landowner, and later gave a misspelled version of his name to the town of Lecompte, Louisiana.

The 2023 Lecomte Stakes drew a field of 8, competing for a $200,000 purse and Road to the Kentucky Derby points. Unlike in previous years, when only the top four finishers received points, this year the top five do. They will be allotted 20-8-6-4-2, assuming the horses are running without Lasix and are conditioned by Derby-eligible trainers. In this case, all eight horses are points eligible.

Though no Lecomte Stakes winner has yet gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, seven have won the Louisiana Derby, most recently International Star (2015).  The race has been a particularly live Preakness prep in recent years; in the last ten years, two of its winners have gone on to win Baltimore’s most important race: Oxbow (2013) and War of Will (2019). Last year’s winner, Epicenter, went on to finish second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He won the Travers (G1) and is a finalist for Champion Three-Year-Old Male honors.

Saturday, January 21 - Fair Grounds

Race 14: Lecomte Stakes (G3), three-year-olds, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 6:30pm CST

With rain in the forecast for Saturday, there is a good chance Two Phil’s can run right back to his smart victory in the Street Sense (G3) on October 30. His trainer Larry Rivelli is strong with layoff horses, and Two Phil’s himself routed the field in the Shakopee Juvenile off a two-month break last year.  And that win came on a dry track, meaning this horse has some promise even if the rain does not fall. Two Phil’s has tactical speed from the outside, giving him a chance for a nice stalking trip, and his rider Jareth Loveberry is not only this horse’s regular rider (and Rivelli’s first call), but is winning prodigiously at the Far Grounds meet.

Instant Coffee is the likely favorite. He comes in from a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club: interestingly enough, though four of the last ten Lecomte winners raced in the Kentucky Jockey Club, none of those recent Lecomte winners have finished better than third in that race. Still, it is a testament to how good that race is as a prep for the Lecomte, since it shows horses are ready to go two turns against classy company. Though there is a chance that the Lecomte pace will not be extremely fast, since other speed horses would have to step up to match Echo Again, Instant Coffee did prove in the Kentucky Jockey Club that he could finish smartly into a pace that was not particularly fast. Between that and the fact that trainer Brad Cox is winning at a 45% clip going into this race week, Instant Coffee should produce a good effort.

Though Echo Again hasn’t yet run back to his dazzling debut at Saratoga, and still has to answer the question of whether he can be effective at two turns, there are reasons this could be the spot he wakes up over that longer trip. In short, he looks like the speed of the speed. Early pace has been holding well at the Fair Grounds, and though there are some others in the field who have shown enough pace to be close, Echo Again is fast enough to make the lead and get clear unless one of the others finds a lot more early pace. Given that he comes into this second off the lay and his pedigree does bode well for two turns on both sides, he may just open up early and forget to stop for high-percentage trainer Steve Asmussen.

 

Selections:

#8 Two Phil’s (4-1)

#7 Instant Coffee (5-2)

#1 Echo Again (6-1)

 

Longshot:  With rain in the forecast for Saturday, #2 Denington (8-1) has a good chance to step up. His maiden win came three starts back over a sloppy dirt track.

He does have tables to turn on Instant Coffee from the Kentucky Jockey Club two back, but he was beaten only 1 ½ lengths in that outing and Kentucky Jockey Club also-rans have an excellent record in the Lecomte over the last decade.

The tilt in the Kentucky Jockey Club was a decent effort after a wide trip and a modest pace up front, and the new blinkers may keep him a little closer up. Finally, jockey Corey Lanerie is having a strong start to the Fair Grounds meet, giving Denington the chance to improve with a strong local rider.

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Jerome Stakes

 Longshot could surprise in Jerome Stakes

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

According to the internet, The Jerome Stakes is the second oldest stakes race in the U.S. (Travers is the oldest).  Up until 2009, it was run in the fall at Belmont but has since been moved to January and contested at Aqueduct which I hear is lovely this time of year…not so much.  It is however the first stop on New York’s road to the Derby in 2023 and offers qualifying points to the spring classic for the top 5 finishers (10-4-3-2-1).  That fact adds a bit of shine to a race that has lost some luster since being moved.  Perhaps we will see 2023’s Derby winner…

The $150,000 Jerome Stakes is contested at a mile, and the track may be drying out. The event is carded as race eight of ten.

The field:

     1-     Neural Network - Chad throws this NY state bred maiden winner right into open stakes company off a sporty win on this oval going 7f.  After tracking a slow pace, he separated from his competition using a 3 wide journey.  The jockey that day was scrubbing on him the entire way which tells me he may not have a ton of speed.  That’s concerning since he moves to the rail and has better speed to his outside.  Aqueduct’s kick back is no joke and he will no doubt have to deal with it.  He will take plenty of $$ at the windows and most likely be over bet.  Board Contender.

     2-     Circling the Drain - A Maryland invader coming off a 7-length score in 40k maiden claiming company.  He did go 2 turns so the distance is not the problem.  It looks like they are taking a swing here.  Perhaps the trainer who was 22% in 2022 saw something.  Toss.

     3-     Valenzan Day - Has already danced 8 times and hit the board in 6 of them.  Linda Rice scooped this guy up out of a Starter Optional Claiming race.  Those tend to be “cheap” in NY.  That said, Linda makes a good living in the claiming game and usually isn’t filling the races she enters.  Interesting that she also owns this guy and there is a bit of back class. Longshot Chance.

     4-     Lugan Night - Broke his maiden at second asking like a good horse while splitting rivals in the stretch.  He then came back to run 3^rd against a future stakes winner who is undefeated and a stakes placed horse so he’s keeping good company.  Looks talented against decent ones and may be taking a sneaky drop in class here.  Win Contender.

     5-     Andiamo a Firenze - Graded stakes placed as a sprinter.  Seems to be a very good NY Bred but didn’t do well in the G1 Champagne.  Perhaps it was the company.  Perhaps it was the distance.  Perhaps both.  Either way, this isn’t a G1 and he has shown enough quality in the past to merit respect.  I’m on the fence but he will lead them as far as he can.  Board Contender.

     6-     Arctic Arrogance - Another NY Bred who ran a gutsy 2^nd in the G2 Remson where he beat 3^rd 11 lengths.  That event was 1 1/8^th miles.  He won 2 back going 1 mile on this track so he has had success at today’s assignment.  He owns the best speed figures and is coming out of the best race.  The deserving favorite.  Win Contender.

     7-     General Banker - Jimmy Ferraro sends out this guy who broke his maiden in his 8^th attempt while winning a lucrative NY Stallion Series race at 10-1.  He looks on the improve both visually and on paper as he blew by his foes in his last and his speed figures are increasing.  He also owns the 2^nd best Beyer number of the bunch of 83 (Arctic Arrogance-89). His form lines are also littered with some trouble comments so his talent may not have shown early on.  Longshot Chance.

     8-     Narciso Dali – Another on the improve.  He needed some class relief and found some friends in a 75k maiden claiming event winning by 6.5 lengths.  This water has much bigger fish who won’t be as friendly.  Toss.  

 

SUMMARY:  Early season 3yo races can sometimes have erratic form as the runners are entering the development stages of their careers.  They are figuring out how to be racehorses.  I like to search out ones that have flashed some ability and are improving in their form. 

The Jerome offers us 6 of 8 entrants are exiting either running for a tag or a state bred race.  The other two are coming out open company. 

That said, I am first tossing the ones who ran for a tag first (Circling the Drain, Valenzan Day and Narciso Dali).  They are going to have to prove something first for me to back them. 

Secondly, I will discount the ones who either lack some experience (Neural Network) or who have some questions to answer like distance (Andiamo a Firenze).   

Thirdly, I will identify those with proven form (Arctic Arrogance) and those who look on the improve (Lugan Night & General Banker). 

Lastly, I need to construct a wager that both offers expresses my opinion while offering me the best bang for my buck. 

I would expect that Arctic Arrogance will go favored off his Remsen effort and rightly so.  It would shock no one if he won but I don’t see any wagering value to back him in the win pool.  I would also think Lugan Night will get some attention and land somewhere around his 4-1 morning line.  General Banker will clearly be the price play of those I’ve identified as win candidates as he is coming out of state bred company with some dirty form lines. 

THE BET: (Based on $100 wagered)

$40 win General Banker

$10 exacta key box General Banker with Arctic Arrogance & Lugan Night

$5 trifecta Arctic Arrogance/Lugan Night with Arctic Arrogance/Lugan Night with General Banker

Good Luck