Baffert seeks record victory in Los Alamitos Futurity
By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off
This race is the successor to the Hollywood Futurity, which was moved to Los Alamitos after Hollywood Park closed. Though only one horse has won both this race and the Kentucky Derby, 1997 winner Real Quiet, six starters in this race have gone on to win the Run for the Roses. However, the most recent to do so was Giacomo, who ran second to Declan’s Moon in 2004 before upsetting the Derby the next year.
Other recent winners who made an impact include the classy, star-crossed Shared Belief (2013), perennial leading sire Into Mischief (2007), and important stallions Violence (2012) and Pioneerof the Nile (2008).
Let’s look at the field.
Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race a record 13 times, including a run from 2014-2020 (its first seven years at Los Alamitos) that was only snapped last year when Doug O'Neill's plucky Slow Down Andy pulled the upset.
Baffert sends out three of the five entraints this year with Carmel Road, Fort Bragg, and Arabian Lion. Though O'Neill is serving a suspension, his assistant Leandro Mora has the string and he has the maiden Tall Boy on the rail. Practical Move, who was put up over Fort Bragg in a maiden race two starts back, rounds out the field for trainer Tim Yakteen.
Sometimes the Los Alamitos surface can be a little quirky, and horses can love or hate it. However, we'll learn in the Futurity who takes to it or not: all five horses will be racing over it for the first time ever.
However, Fort Bragg, Practical Move, and Arabian Lion have all shown that they can run quality races over more than one racecourse. Tall Boy has only ever run at Del Mar, while Carmel Road ran two solid efforts at Del Mar but came up empty in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
Often, speed is an asset in short fields. Arabian Lion has drawn well in that regard, as he gets the clean outside draw in a group of only five. He wired his maiden win, and stalked the pace and came up just short despite an extremely awkward first few jumps in that Keeneland allowance last out, still finishing 17 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place horse. The question about Arabian Lion is distance, as he has yet to try going two turns. His dam being a sprinter raises some questions, though being by Justify he has a chance to stretch out.
Another positive sign in a race like this is when a horse steps forward going two turns, and that is the pattern with Fort Bragg. He finished only third behind speedy stablemate Speed Boat Beach in a five-and-a-half-furlong debut, though he woke up on the stretch out to a mile next out. Though he was disqualified from first to second in that outing, he wired a race at this distance last out at Santa Anita. Note that the tracked the pace in his two-back race, though, meaning he should stay well engaged in the likely case that he is outjumped to the front by Arabian Lion.
Among the rest of the field, Practical Move and Carmel Road both make sense for a piece, but Practical Move has a bit more upside and will likely be a bit more of a price due to not being trained by Bob Baffert. Practical Move took a nice step forward in his maiden win two starts ago, despite some trip trouble. That was his only start over a two-turn trip, giving him room to step forward now that he stretches out again. Furthermore, with a few horses in this field who have shown some pace, he reliably sets off the pace and makes a move. Over a track that can give a fair shake to horses with that kind of running style, Practical Move can find his way into the picture.
Selections:
#5 Arabian Lion
#3 Fort Bragg
#4 Practical Move
