Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

 Who can upset the Jenny Wiley Stakes?

By: The Turk

The Jenny Wiley.  Are you the the sort of horse player that cares enough about the names of these races to figure out why they are named, or no? I assume if you don't care about the names of the races, you probably don't care a lot about the the names of the horses, referring to them by their post positions. 

There is nothing wrong with either approach. I've tried for many years to be a horse racing fan. The sort of fan that cares about the names, the horse's, their pedigrees, their connections, interesting backstories and storylines. 

It hasn't gotten me very far except worried that the downward spiral of this sport may not be arrested. In the 1970's I was a fan of the offbeat: Boxing, Formula 1 and Horse Racing. Why? Sports Illustrated and ABC Wide World of Sports. I'm fascinated at the resurgence of F1, driven by the accessibility of the drivers and the circuit through television shows. It helps there is a governing body that cares about the sport holistically. 

 Horse racing, with their small thinkers and fiefdoms and refusal to take the eradication of performance enhancing drugs seriously enough, the blind eye to excessive on track deaths, can't/won't get out of their own way. All of this, at a fan website, Thorofan, mind you, was a long winded way to say there has to be a metaphor somewhere in the name of the Jenny Wiley.

Ms. Wiley was captured in 1789 right from her home by Native Americans, three of her children and her uncle murdered, a fourth child died in the harsh conditions, sold from one tribe to another, finally escaping after having a vision in a dream of what to do. 

Perhaps there is an escape and revival story for horse racing somewhere. Luckily, today's race is at one of the shrines of horse racing, Keeneland, to the north and west of Ms. Wiley's ordeal. 

 

It isn't tracks like KEE that are a problem, but then again, you can't have boutique meets like KEE, SAR, and my favorite, Kentucky Downs, without the year round back track support, ownership, and the fans. Thorofan is doing their part. 

 Enough old man rambling, let's get after this! 

 

 

 How is it good for horse racing to have two Trainer Chad Brown runners making up 85% of the morning line odds. A six horse field, with Scarabea also entered in Race 5and why wouldn't she go somewhere better than his bloodbath? 

Anyways, lets take a look at a few races to give these runners some context.  

The Queen Elizabeth II Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Yielding Turf KEE 16 Oct 2021  

 

The Pucker Up Stakes G3: 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf at Ap 14 August 2021. 

 

Yielding, Firm, Good. Shantisara is the real deal. Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf G3; 1 1/16 Firm Turf GP 29 January 2022  

 

The First Lady G1; 1 Mile Good Turf KEE 9 Oct 2021 

 

So what to do with this? The two favorites will be bet hard, with what I would expect Shantisara being the post time tote board leader. 

I'm going to take an $2 Place bet for $8 on all the non Chad Brown runners and hope for the Place upset. 8/5/2/1 

The turf should be somewhere between Good and Firm and no rain is in current forecast. 

You can find up to date track conditions here. 

Have fun friends. Turk out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

 Santa Anita Derby may be royalty in the making

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

The racing suspension facing Bob Baffert will have an unknown impact on this race. Baffert has his fingerprints on five of the horses originally nominated for the race. Of the six that make it to the gate, three came from the Baffert barn, now officially trained by Tim Yakteen (#2-Armagnac, #4 Messier, and #6 Taiba).

 

The weather this week leading up to the Derby will be very warm, floating around 98 degrees. It will cool to 89 degrees on Saturday. The track should be “California-fast.”  

Here is the field:

    1.   Happy Jack (Oxbow) bred and owned by Calumet Farms. He started out good, winning his first try. Then tried graded company in his next two, performing poorly and finishing those two off by a collective 38 lengths. Nevertheless, his works suggest he might be ready for the 9-furlong race. Needs to bring his “A-Game.

    2.   Armagnac (Quality Road) should be quick out of the gate. The biggest question is how long he will last. The 9 furlong seems out of his reach. Although the recent bullet work for 6 furlongs suggests he wants more, these are not enough to give him a chance.

    3.   Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) has the speed to dictate the pace. Bred for the distance. The race could be over just after the gates open. However, the race is loaded with speed setting-up for the front-runners to tire. One thing is for sure is he will not have his way alone on the front end as he did in the San Felipe Stakes.

    4.   Messier (Empire Makers) is one of the four front runners ready to fire. He has shown good energy as the wire approaches indicating he may carry his speed far enough for this race. His long works reinforce that thinking. However, layoffs and the absence of Baffert must be factored in.

    5.   Win the Day (Midshipman) is another O’Neill horse in the race. He took three attempts to break his maiden, not a good sign. His late-running style may be good enough to be in the lower exotics for this race. However, he lacks sufficient speed to compete beyond that point.

    6.   Taiba (Gun Runner) is trying to step into grade one company after only one maiden race in March. His win by 7.5 lengths must be respected. Looks like he wants to lead the pack. A tough task, given all the legitimate speed in the race. The Morning Line odds of 4-1 may signal something. Looks like he needs one before he is ready to compete at this level.

   

    Analysis

Forbidden Kingdom is the fastest and should control the pace. However, three others cannot let him get away and will be pushing him. The pace should be extremely hot. Messier will likely be Forbidden Kingdom’s may foe. The big if is, will O’Neill’s Happy Jack come around to form as anticipated in February? If he does, he will light-up the exotics. 

Here is how they will finish:

    #3.   Forbidden Kingdom (6-5)

    #1.   Happy Jack (20-1)

    #3.   Messier (1-1)

    #6.   Taiba (4-1)

Handigamble

$15 Exacta Box --#1 and #3 and #4 ---$90.00

 $5 Exacta Box ----------- #3 and #4 ---$10.00

 Good luck, but keep the day job!

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Florida Derby (G1)

How to bet the Florida Derby

By: John Caro, ThoroFan handicapper 

The Florida Derby is the close of the meet for this season and has some sharp contenders going for the Run for the Roses in five weeks. The forecast is occasional showers in the afternoon with a 40% chance of rain.

There is lots of quality in the field, and all the top jockeys are in the mix, with some local fan jockeys to boot. Should be a good match.

 

The Favorites

#2 Classic Causeway – Lynch/Ortiz, I – Never out of the money in his five starts with back-to-back wins at the Tampa meet, winning the Sam Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby. Ortiz was aboard for both recent wins, and CC has been on an off track at the Tampa Bay Derby. His pedigree shows he can go the distance without a problem. Never raced at Gulfstream but is a Top contender.

#3 Simplification – Sano/Ortiz, J – Has raced exclusively at Gulfstream with three wins a second and a third-place finish out of his six races. Last seen winning the Fountain of Youth and placed second behind White Abarrio in the Holy Bull in February and winning the Holy Bull in January. The horse for the course. Has never run on an off track but looks like he would handle it. He is tactical as well. Able to track off the pace and close or run near the front. Another top contender.

#7 White Abarrio – Joseph Jr./Gaffalione – He is three for three at Gulfstream and came in third behind Classic Causeway in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. His return is his only had one race this year when he won the Holy Bull when he drew away to finish by 4 & 1/2. He’s had 59 days of rest, and it hasn’t gone to waste shooting two bullets out of his five works over the Gulfstream track. Saffie has him where he wants him, and Gaffalione is at home here. Personally, this is my win contender.

#6 Charge It – Pletcher/Saez – The odds makers like this one and gave him 7/2 odds even though his last race was against 9 others in a maiden. Could be the speed? Could be the win by 8+? No question he has talent, and the connections are top shelf. Workouts are speedy. This will be a class test. Yes, he has to be given a consideration for an ITM play.

 

Might be overlooked

#5 Pappacap – Casse/Gonzalez – A Gun Runner colt who won first out at Gulfstream with Gonzalez up. Moved out West and did well, including a second-place finish in the BC Juvenile and the American Pharaoh losing to Cornich both times. Came back to Fairgrounds and was third behind Epicenter in the LeComte. Up to that point, a willing contender. He had a very tough outing in his last in the Risen Star. Reading Casse’s comments, he put a line through it and is moving on. The colt has had four works since that race, three of which were bullets. I think he is a legitimate longshot here.

#9 O Captain – Delgado/Rosario – Was third in the Fountain of Youth. He was using the late close to get ITM from far off the pace. I don’t this we’ll see that with Rosario, Master of Pace, aboard for this one. Will use him underneath at a big price.

#1 Strike Hard – Williams/Alvarado – Hard trying son of Flashback (Tapit) and the third Grey in the field. He was second to Simplification in the Mucho Macho Man and forth to Classic Causeway in the Sam Davis. Alvarado has been on him twice for a win and a place and is up today. This colt has not been out of the money at Gulfstream in his five races here. Underneath, also at a big price.

 

Others to toss

#4 King of Truth – Sanchez/Morelos – Not enough speed or class for this group.

#8 Cajun’s Magic – Yates/Rios – Very nice two-year-old campaign, no late kick, and distance is a question.

#10 Clapton – Alvarado/Jaramillo – Save one race he’s been a sprinter. His time and speed over this track at a distance are not in this league. He could be part of the pace, but he draws the outside post. I’m sure Jaramillo will give him his all.

#11 Steal Sunshine – Dibona/Reyes – He’s gone a mile and an eighth and did okay closing into a fast pace, but the class of the others here makes me think that there are others who can do the same better. I’d put him in the bottom of a Superfecta if I was playing one.

 

Handigambling

The top three contenders are the ones to beat, and you need to decide who is your top pick for the bet below.

Exacta bet – Box the 2-3-7 for whatever you feel is reasonable in your budget.

Here is an example of a Trifecta bet to play, but again, you need to pick your top player for this bet. Mine is the 7, as noted above. Put your top pick where you think he ought to be.

$.50 Trifecta Bet – 7 with 2-3-5 with 2-3-5-1-6-9    cost $7.50   Bet this as many times as you like but always within your budget.

Good Luck.