Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Whitmore Stakes (G3)

 Older Sprinters seeking first graded win in Whitmore Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Formerly known as the Hot Springs Handicap, The $200,000 Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes was renamed in 2021 in honor the gelding who captured the race for four straight years, from 2017 to 2020. 

 

 With careful handling by trainer Ron Moquett, Whitmore raced at the highest levels for six years. However, the apex of his career came in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Sprint earning him year-end honors as Champion Sprinter.

Whitmore retired as an 8-year-old after making 43 starts and earning $4,502,350.

This year's Whitmore Stakes attracted nine older horses who will sprint six furlongs. Let's review the field.

 

Greeley and Ben (9-2) compiled a nine-race win streak last year and continued his winning ways this year with a trio of victories. In his previous start, the  Karl Broberg trainee bested Starter Allowance company by 1 3/4-lengths here, finishing up in 1:90.60. This is Greeley and Ben's first foray into graded competition; however, the 8-year-old gelding should be up to the task. Win contender.

A lightly raced 4-year-old with only seven career starts under his girth, Tulane Tryst (9-2) has won his last two starts by open lengths, including an impressive score against Allowance Optional Claiming class runners by 7 1/4-lengths at the Fairgrounds, getting six furlongs in 1:09.77. The  Cherie DeVaux trainee was off the board in his only stakes try in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens last year. However, he meets a softer group here and fired a recent four-furlong bullet work. Win contender.

Bob's Edge (5-2) has hit the board in all five starts at Oaklawn, including a 2 3/4-victory in the King Cotton Stakes in January. The knock against him is that he's never strung together back-to-back wins, and a third-place finish generally follows each victory. Additionally, he hit a career-best 100 speed rating in his last start. So I don't see a form reversal here. Exotics.

Hollis (3-1) has won three of his four starts at Oaklawn. He shook the rust off in the King Cotton Stakes, finishing a distant fifth behind Bob's Edge in his yearly debut, and returned to best Starter Allowance class runners by 4 1/4-lengths, handily beating runner-up No Shirt No Shoes. However, Hollis' weakness is a class issue. He's hit or miss at the listed stakes level, and his last stakes victory was over a year ago. Additionally, the John Ortiz trainee has a good/bad race cycle over the last year. Exotics.

Heart Rhythm (15-1) has hit the board in 13 of 15 career starts in the Allowance Optional Claiming ranks. He won and placed in both starts this year at Oaklawn, giving trainer Trisha Vance Duncan her first career victory. Duncan is the daughter David Vance, a 4-time Oaklawn leading trainer. Although his overall Brisnet speed ratings fit this group, Heart Rhythm is a need-the-lead type, and his late-pace figures are poor. Maybe he can hang on for a lower exotics placing.  

Kneedeepinsnow (8-1) is hit or miss against Allowance Optional Claiming types. In January, the Mike Maker trainee won his 2022 debut here but was a one-paced fourth against Greeley and Ben in the Stonerside Sprint at Sam Houston in his last start. Kneedeepinsnow had a little break in February and returned to the work tab March 7. He has run well off the layoff in the past, but the wins are now few and far between for this 6-year-old. Pass.

Royal Daaher (10-1) won his 2022 debut here by 1 1/4-lengths, beating Atoka and earning a lifetime best Brisnet speed rating in the process. The Wane Lukas trainee has hit the board in eight of 12 starts at Oaklawn in the Allowance Optional Claiming ranks; However, the 6-year-old has never strung together back-to-back wins, and he may regress off the 100 speed rating. Pass.

No Shirt No Shoes (12-1) has won two of eight attempts at Oaklawn. Allowance Optional Claiming class 5-year-old jumps into graded company after a 4 1/2-length loss to Hollis. Previously, the Doug Anderson trainee has regressed in his second start off the layoff. Pass.

 

Analysis

Greely and Ben doesn't need the lead, but he'll be close to the pace, along with Hollis, Heart Rhythm, and No Shirt No Shoes. Bob's Edge does his best work from the back of the pack. Tulane Twist will make a late run.

I'll go with age and experience over youth and optimism.

3. Greely and Ben (9-2)

7. Tulane Tryst (9-2)

2. Bob's Edge (5-2)

8. Heart Rhythm (15-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

Classic Causeway the one to beat in Tampa Bay Derby

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

Though the Tampa Bay spur of the Kentucky Derby trail is a little shorter than at some of the winter tracks, it always draws the eyes of the racing world. It started with the Sam F. Davis (G3) on February 22, won by Classic Causeway, and continues Saturday, March 19 with the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).

The $400,000 race drew a field of twelve to compete for not only purse money, but Road to the Kentucky Derby points: 50-20-10-5 for the top four finishers.  50 points is enough to virtually guarantee the winner of the Tampa Bay Derby a spot in the starting gate in Louisville. Even the 20-point haul for the second-place horse is enough to get them most of the way to Kentucky.

One winner of the Kentucky Derby has also won the Tampa Bay Derby: Street Sense swept the pair in 2007.  Super Saver, winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby, also started his season in Tampa. Though he was third beaten half a length in Oldsmar, he finished second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and peaked in the Run for the Roses. More recently the race produced Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit (2017), as well as Belmont seconds Destin (2016) and Tacitus (2019).

 

Classic Causeway won the local prep, the Sam F. Davis, and comes into the Tampa Bay Derby as the horse to beat. He looks like the goods as well.  He has never been off the board in four starts. His Sam F. Davis showed that he trained on the way he needed to at three: off a two-and-a-half-month layoff, he was ready to duel and draw off to win by three and three quarters lengths. His foes get tougher here, but with money finishes in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and an ultra-live Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last year, he can hang with the best of his class. It is also a plus that he can handle a relatively-inside gate in a big field, and that he has already proven he can run well over the love-it-or-hate-it Tampa Bay footing.

 

Major General begins his three-year-old campaign for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has already proven he will race his live Triple Crown prospects in Tampa. He has trained five Tampa Bay Derby winners, and he also trained Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, who started his three-year-old year with a close third in this race. Though Major General has not raced since a victory in the Iroquois (G3) last September, the works are encouragingly regular since January. It is also a positive that he has won his two starts from two completely different styles: he broke his maiden on the front end, but rallied from midfield to take the Iroquois.  With that versatility, as well as some pedigree to train on at age three, there is a strong argument that we have yet to see the best of Major General.

 

Shipsational made all four of his juvenile starts against horses bred in the Empire State, and had to prove in the Sam F. Davis that he could hold his own against open company. Making his first start in three and a half months, he proved he belonged, rallying from well off the pace to finish a clear second to Classic Causeway. Of course, he must step forward (or hope the favorite regresses) to turn the tables. But, his New York form suggests that there is plenty more improvement we could see from Shipsational, and his strong races in multiple race shapes also mean he is the sort of horse with the versatility necessary to make his own trip in a large field like this.

 

Selections

#4 Classic Causeway (8/5)

#8 Major General (9/2)

#9 Shipsational (5/1)

 

Longshot:  If you’re looking for a new face in the Tampa Bay Derby, #11 Money Supply (10/1) intrigues. He cedes experience to everyone in the field, of course: he has raced just once, a six-furlong debut maiden win. But that race came at Tampa Bay Downs on the Davis undercard, so he can handle a big-day Tampa track.

He tries two turns for the first time, but his pedigree has enough middle-distance in it to be interesting at this trip, and trainer Chad Brown’s trainees do tend to show their best at two turns.

Though the outside post may be a little tough, he has shown the ability to both handle a tough start and rally on late, meaning he can find a place to settle and then try to come on in the lane. With the stakes-proven runners likely to take most of the money, Money Supply has enough upside to be the price possibility in the Tampa Bay Derby.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)

 Four stand-outs in Fountain of Youth

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 5:40 pm Eastern time is the $400,000 Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes for 3-year-olds on the dirt at 1 1/16 miles. Held at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Florida, this is a Derby Prep Race with points earned to qualify for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. 

 

We have a nice big field to bet, so let's see who we like:

#9 High Oak — This colt makes his 3-year-old debut. He raced three times as a 2-year-old, the last being way back in September in the Hopeful at Saratoga, finishing a disappointing 4th after two impressive wins in his first two starts. This long rest does not scare us as trainer Bill Mott is always very deliberate and careful with his young horses and knows when to enter them. By Gormley, we think the longer distance will suit this horse. He had a bullet workout on 2/28/22 and has the raw speed. At 8-1, we think he outruns his odds.

#8 Emmanuel — This lightly raced colt did not run as a 2-year-old. He is undefeated in two starts. The distance should be no problem as he already has raced in both starts 1 mile or more, including his maiden start at 1 mile on this track where he won handily over a ten-horse field. He has the dirt speed and, on paper, can outrun this field. He will be forwardly placed and should avoid traffic trouble. Watch the odds boards but jump on this horse if he stays anywhere near the 9-2 morning line odds.

#3 Howling Time — Trained by Dale Romans, like High Oak, he is unraced as a 3-year-old. 2 wins out of 3 starts as a 2-year-old and faltered his last start at Churchill in the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes in November. However, he has had three back-to-back-to-back bullet works, all at Gulfstream. At 15-1 odds, this horse can really juice your exotic payout.

#7 A.P.'s Secret — at 20-1, this colt can looks interesting. With two wins out of three starts, he makes his stakes debut and is definitely stepping up in class. But he gets a key jockey change with Tyler Gaffalione getting the mount for the first time. I really like Tyler at 20-1 odds. Look for him to be passing horses late. Also has the pedigree to handle the distance with Tapit and Uncle Mo in the family lineage.

 

Gambling Bankroll $100

We will bet a $2 Trifecta Box on #3,#7,#8, #9 for $48

We will bet a $20 Win/Place on #9; $40

We will bet a $12 Show bet on #7 for $12

 

Good luck, and as always, watch how the horses look in the Paddock and check the odds boards before placing all wagers.