Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Travers Stakes (G1)

ThoroFan Handicappers divided on Travers' Winner

The 2020 Travers Stakes attracted eight 3-year-old colts and geldings who will travel 1 1/4-miles over Saratoga’s main track.

Saratoga is known as the graveyard of favorites. This particularly holds true for the Travers Stakes (G1).  The last time the favorite won the “Midsummer Derby” was in 2011, although Alpha, the 2012 favorite, dead-heated with a 33-1 longshot.

 

Speaking of longshots, the Travers can be a tough race to handicap, but the returns are huge, with double-digit payouts on the winner.

Post time for the Travers Stakes is set for 6:15 p.m. ET Saturday. The main track should be fast, although the forecast calls for 40% rain.

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers offer their choices for first through third place and our best longshot bombs.

Good Luck to everyone!

 

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Tiz the Law	Caracaro	Uncle Chuck	First Line
John Caro	Tiz the Law	Max Player	Uncle Chuck	Shivaree
Nick Costa	Max Player	Tiz the Law	Uncle Chuck	South Bend
Michael Mills	Max Player	Tiz the Law	Country Grammer	South Bend
Nicolle Neulist	Tiz the Law	Max Player	Uncle Chuck	South Bend

 

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Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Personal Ensign Stakes (G1)

Midnight Bisou on track to repeat in Personal Ensign

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

 

Saturday’s first Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In race at Saratoga, the day’s fifth race in all, is the Personal Ensign (G1). It is a nine-furlong, $500,000 dirt race that also awards its winner a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).  The race drew a field of six, including the mare who has owned the distaff division over the last year: Midnight Bisou.

 

Midnight Bisou, last year’s divisional leader, is just as good this year.  She ran a good second against good males in the Saudi Cup (G1) back in February, then returned in June to win the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill as easily as she pleased.  Never has a horse won a Breeders’ Cup berth so easily as she did that day.  She should get her usual sort of trip, stalking just off the pace and running down the leaders in the lane.  She has mile and an eighth stamina, she can handle the course (she won this race last year, after all!), and it will be tough to deny her again.

 

Who will Midnight Bisou have to run down in the lane?  The most likely pacesetter is probably Motion Emotion, who comes in off a longshot second in the Fleur de Lis last out.  A plucky tryer, she has yet to win a graded stakes, but she has three placings.  Though, she is better suited going shorter than this mile and an eighth, which is a concern given a few of the others she will be facing. 

 

Abounding Joy should also be part of the pace; she may not outjump Motion Emotion but won’t be far away.  She tries graded company for the first time, meaning she gets a class test in the Personal Ensign.  She comes into this race off a breakout effort in the Iowa Distaff on July 4, though now has to stretch from a mile and a sixteenth to a mile and an eighth for the first time.  Furthermore, she has to shatter her career-best to be a factor in this.

 

Bossy Bride may situate herself near the lead, though she also has the versatility to sit midfield if necessary.  She comes in from a smart victory at Belmont on July 10: but that came in the slop, and that came against $50,000 starter allowance horses.  A jump from that to any sort of black-type debut would be a step forward.  A jump from that to a Grade 1 race is a momentous thing to ask.  It makes a certain sort of sense: the field is short, so why not take a shot at a third-place finish and some graded black type?  But, without a massive leap forward from any of her previous races, or a few marquee contenders waking up on the wrong side of their hay nets, Bossy Bride is probably too slow.

 

Vexatious likely sits midfield, though she could sit a bit closer if the race unfolds a little slowly.  She has been an honest, interesting type throughout her career, a graded stakes filly on both turf and dirt.  Her last effort was a solid second in the Ruffian (G2) behind another leading light, Monomoy Girl.  That was over a one-turn mile, but the step up in distance should suit her just fine.  After all, one of the best races she has ever run came last year, in a mile and an eighth race at the Spa, in which she kept on to finish second by a neck behind eventual Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Blue Prize. 

 

The one real closer in the field is Point of Honor.  She has both the class and the mile-and-an-eighth stamina to be a serious contender.  Her two starts at Saratoga so far have both been good, second-place finishes in Grade 1 races last year.  The question for her is pace since she would be better suited by some more pace up front: and, perhaps, not having to run down a horse like Midnight Bisou.  After all, though Point of Honor is very good, she has yet to prove that she is great.

 

All in all, it seems too cute to try and beat Midnight Bisou in the Personal Ensign; her consistency and her affinity for the distance make her stand out. Though, for those who are playing exotics, the one to lean most heavily on is Vexatious.  She is a consistent and pace-versatile horse, the stretch out to a mile and an eighth helps her out more than the also-forwardly-placed Motion Emotion, and she doesn’t have the pace questions of Point of Honor.

Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1)

Quality field set for Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap 

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan

The Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (Grade 1), 6 furlongs on the main track at Saratoga Racecourse does not have much quantity with just a field of five but definitely has quality. 

Four of the five starters won their last start and have a total of 40 wins between them.  Not sure if other possible starters were afraid of the new shooter to the Graded Stakes game Volatile or intimidated by the old guy seven-year-old gelding Whitmore.  

On paper, all but Lexitonian has a shot to win it.  Picks are for a dry fast track.

1.  Lexitonian, Tyler Gafflione, Jack Sisterson.  Four-year-old colt has found the winner circle in graded company just once back in May 2019.  Comes in off an allowance win at Churchill back in May but would be a surprise.

2.  Whitmore, Joel Rosario, Ron Moquett.  Seven-year-old gelding is a warrior.  Two for three this year racing impressively earlier in the year at Oaklawn.  Been to the Breeders Cup twice before and looking to return this year in the Sprint.  He will be up close in the small field and show his experience and quality down the lane.

3.  Firenze Fire, Irad Ortiz Jr., Kelly J. Breen.  Five-year-old comes in following a victory in the True North Grade 2 the end of last month at Belmont.  Raced in this event last year finishing a distance 4th.  Loads of Grade 1 experience.  Not sure he is the same horse he was last year, be careful.

4.  Volatile, Ricardo Santana Jr., Steven M. Asmussen.  Four-year-old colt is the new shooter to the Graded Stakes racing game.  Lightly raced with just 5 starts (4 wins and a second) he comes in following two wins this spring and racked up 112 Beyer Figure in his last at Churchill.  Pricey fellow when purchased could be starting to live up to expectations.

5.  Mind Control, John R. Velazquez, Gregory D. Sacco.  Four-year-old strung together three wins before throwing in a clunker last month in the Carter at Belmont in the slop.  Two for two at Saratoga but will need to bring his best game to bounce back.

While I am a fan of the old guy Whitmore, I’m projecting Volatile to be too much for this field and hopefully at not too short a price.

1) #4 Volatile (4-5)

2) #2 Whitmore (2-1)

3) #3 Firenze Fire (4-1)

The Play: $50 Win #4

Have a Day……. Mike Mills