Handicapper's Corner: Queens Plate

Speed Lines Up in Queen’s Plate

By: Reinier Macatangay, Lady and The Track

Canada is in the racing spotlight this Sunday when Woodbine Racetrack hosts the 157th Queen’s Plate, worth $1 million, for 3-year-old horses bred in the country. The race features talented colts, geldings and the filly Gamble’s Ghost, who will attempt to follow in Inglorious’ footsteps from 2011 when she defeated males en-route to victory.

To help with the analysis, this writer is bringing in someone who racing fans lurking around social media are undoubtedly familiar with. Casey Laughter not only writes for Lady and The Track as well, but the now well-known (thanks to Maria Borell) US Racing, in addition to her own personal blog A World Full of Furlongs.

The job of this writer is to completely disagree with every comment she makes.

Mike (Philanthropist – Uproar, by Hail the Ruckus)
Casey: This Ontario-bred colt won on debut but has yet to seal the deal outside of maiden special weight company, with only a seventh and a pair of third-place finishes to round out his record. The colt has never been further than 8.5 furlongs. His pedigree does not suggest that he will be well equipped for ten furlongs but his stalking running style could offer first jump as the frontrunners get leg weary.

Reinier: As Casey wrote, his form outside the maiden ranks has been disappointing. His pedigree does not even seem worth the time to research.

Narrow Escape (Sky Conqueror – Certainly Special, by Distorted Humor)
Casey: After breaking his maiden in his fourth start, he backed up that win with another score in allowance company, and even defeated Mike in that last start. He likes to be in front, and take the field on a game of catch me if you can. Narrow Escape certainly has a pedigree that screams class but is borderline for ten furlongs.

Reinier: While it is nice to see some local scores, his running style is troubling. Other speed, from horses who are either equal or better, is on the outside and will keep this runner pressured enough to expect a fade.

All On Red (Hard Spun – Wicked Diva, by Jump Start)
Casey: With a first glance at the pedigree, All On Red is bred well for the ten furlongs. He most recently finished second in a Woodbine allowance to get familiar with the all weather course after breaking his maiden at Aqueduct going a flat mile. He likes to be close to the lead, or on it if he can, and will keep Narrow Escape company.

Reinier: At first glance the pedigree does look good. Hard Spun lost the Kentucky Derby (GI), Preakness (GI) and Belmont Stakes (GI) due to circumstances such as pace and poor jockey strategy, not distance ability. Consider.

 

Leavem in Malibu (Malibu Moon – Leaveminthedust, by Danzig)
Casey: The colt is 2-for-3 at Woodbine on the all weather surface and is riding a two-race win streak. While he has never been further than 8.5 furlongs, he has a solid performance record behind him, as well as blue blood running through his veins. He could easily sit off the early pace and make first run right off the speed. Look for him to move coming into the stretch.

Reinier: His two wins look impressive on paper, and fans will instantly recognize the ill-fated sibling Danzig Moon if they research the siblings. Too much speed is in this race already, although this one can rate a little bit. Use him and pray for a good trip.

Sir Dudley Digges (Gio Ponti – My Pal Lana, by Kris S)
Casey: This colt only has one win in eight lifetime starts. He has a pedigree that suggests all weather surfaces should be well within his wheelhouse, but only managed third last time out in the Plate Trial Stakes at Woodbine. He broke his maiden at Keeneland on the turf, which makes sense if one looks at his pedigree. He likely needs to remain on turf, but should adjust okay here as well. He also tends to sit close, if not be on the lead. He will help press a pace and set the race up for closers, most likely.

Reinier: Yes, he won at Keeneland, but it sure took him long enough though with seven tries to break his maiden. This is yet another horse who wants to sit close or be on the lead. Not all of them will survive the pace.

Shakhimat (Lonhro – Reggae Rose, by Touch Gold)
Casey: Recently, Shakhimat finished runner-up in the Plate Trial Stakes going nine furlongs by 2 ½ lengths. Earlier in the year, Shakhimat won the Transylvania Stakes (GIII) at Keeneland on the turf. His pedigree suggests turf would likely be his calling, but he has won twice on this very same track as a two-year-old. He could easily return to from here and win this for fun. His pedigree suggests the distance should not be a problem. He is a stalker and should find comfort behind the speed horses.

Reinier: A stalker? In all six of his career starts, he has been first or second at the first call. The talent is there, as he did win a graded stakes at Keeneland. The same story keeps getting repeated though. This horse likes to be on or near the lead just like some others in this field, making a collapse look inevitable.

My Name Is Jim (Society’s Chairman – Romanced, by Smoke Glacken)
Casey: This gelding for Reade Baker broke his maiden last out in his third start. His workouts alone prove that he is fast, as he most recently fired a bullet on June 26. He is another that likes to be on the lead, but was able to carry speed over nine furlongs last out in his maiden score. The fractions were insanely easy (the ½ went up in 50.39, the ¾ in 1:14.86) but if he can either relax off the more intense speed, or step it up, he could be a contender here.

Reinier: Speed, speed and more speed!

Rocket Plan (Plan – Gin N Ginger, by Go For Gin)
Casey: This gelded son of Plan has the perfect running style for the likely pace scenario we will get in the Queen’s Plate. He was just caught at the wire last out in a seven furlong allowance race. While this race is much longer than he is likely used to, he is bred to potentially get the distance with the right set up. He may even do better running longer. I like this horse here with his running style.

Reinier: Finally, here is a horse who can sit in midpack. Unfortunately, the class is in question. Look what happened in the Nov. 28 race when he faced Amis Gizmo. Young horses sometimes change though.

Cheburashka (Milwaukee Brew – Zoogdidi(GB), by Singspiel (IRE))
Casey: He broke his maiden in his fourth start as a two-year-old. Coming back at three in an allowance, he again won. Both his wins have come at 8.5 furlongs. In his latest start, he faded to fourth after leading the 8.5 furlong contest into the stretch, He is another frontrunner, so determining where he needs to be will be up to rider Rafael Hernandez and trainer Robert Tiller.

Reinier: In his last five starts, he has led or been second at the first call. Lower-class horses can only steal a race if there is not significant speed lined up against them, and there is in this spot. 

Amis Gizmo (Giant Gizmo – Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop)
Casey: This colt broke his maiden first out in the OLG Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine, traveling 6.5 furlongs. He is the Plate Trial Stakes winner, along with three other stakes wins to his credit. He did finish fifth in the Wando Stakes, but otherwise, has never finished worse than first. He is a major contender here.

Reinier: It is agreed this one is a major contender, although he brings even more speed to a table rapidly losing space. If a few of the speed horses survive, Amis Gizmo seems probable to be one of those quality runners to fight until the finish. The price on him will not be so enticing though.

 

Esposito (Ghostzapper – Money My Honey, by Red Bullet)
Casey: Esposito has a good record going for him. He has never finished worse than third, and in doing so, he has faced horses like Discreetness and Suddenbreakingnews. He broke his maiden at Del Mar but now ships in from Remington to face this group. If he can be competitive against horses like those listed above, he could have a chance here. He did win an allowance race over the track and seemed fine with the footing. He is a pace presser but he could be held off a bit more with the amount of speed here.

Reinier: This Ghostzapper colt certainly brings class considering the horses he faced at Remington Park. Also, with only four starts there is upside, and trainer Thomas Proctor is a familiar name. Hopefully, jockey Alan Garcia holds him back at least four or five lengths, as there will be no breaks up front with all the speed lined up.

Scholar Athlete (Einstein (BRZ) – Creme Catalan, by El Prado (IRE))
Casey: Scholar Athlete ships back in after finally getting a second win in an allowance race at Belmont Park. He raced at Turfway in the Rushaway Stakes but only managed fifth. He has performed well at Woodbine, even breaking his maiden there, but seems over his head here. Distance will not be an issue, but his class might be.

Reinier: In terms of class, usually horses who can win on the New York circuit possess more class than the average Woodbine stakes horse, especially since so many Woodbine races are restricted to Canadian breds (including this one). But, it is hard not to notice Shakhimat drilled him by 11 lengths last fall at Woodbine.

Gamble’s Ghost (Ghostzapper – Gambling Girl, by Secret Claim)
Casey: This filly once again arrives in the Queen’s Plate to take on the boys. While she finished sixth in the Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay, she has never been worse than second when competing at Woodbine. She most recently finished second in the Woodbine Oaks but won the Selene Stakes (GIII) in the start prior to that. She looks poised to be the main competition in this race.

Reinier: On running style alone, she has a wonderful advantage as a quality closer. The sixth-place finish in Tampa is forgivable, and the second in the Woodbine Oaks came after a troubled trip behind a collapsing pace. If the pace collapses in the Queen’s Plate, except her to be right up there making a charge.

 

Casey’s Picks: Amis Gizmo, Gamble’s Ghost, Rocket Plan, Mike

Reinier’s Picks: Gamble’s Ghost, Esposito, Leavem in Malibu, Shakhimat

Handigambling (Reinier)

$11 exactas ($99 in all)
Gamble’s Ghost, Esposito, Leavem in Malibu over Gamble’s Ghost, Esposito, Leavem in Malibu, Shakimat

$1 tip for the teller after the ticket hits.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Princess Rooney Handicap (G2)

Princess Rooney Handicap - Locals vs. Shippers

By: Laurie Ross, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds

The Princess Rooney Handicap (G2) is a highlight on Gulfstream Park’s Summit of Speed day.  First created in the 1990’s, the Summit of Speed offers $1.125 million and two Breeders’ Cup Challenge events. 

The seven-furlong affair was named in honor of the Champion Older mare, Princess Rooney.  The race was first contested in 1985 at Calder Racetrack. Over the years, the contest rose to Grade One prominence, but was recently downgraded to a Grade Two event.

One of my fondest memories is of a spring day in May of 1982.  While watching the horses in the walking ring for an upcoming maiden event for two-year-old fillies, my eye landed on a pretty gray filly with the moniker of Princess Rooney. She was a real stand-out who exuded class and stood withers above the rest.  

At the start of the maiden race, Princess Rooney broke sharply. After leading the field through a brisk first quarter, the two-year-old filly opened up, widening her advantage with every stride.   

The track apron was littered with dropped jaws, including mine, as Princess Rooney swung into the stretch while the rest of the herd was struggling to to find the half mile pole. Princess Rooney returned to the winner’s circle to a burst of spontaneous applause by the crowd.  Many of us realized that we witnessed something special in the making and we agreed that Princess Rooney’s brilliance brought to mind the talent of Secretariat and Ruffian.  Princess Rooney won or placed in 20 of her 21 starts. She won the inaugural Breeders' Cup Distaff by seven lengths and was the first Breeders’ Cup winner to be inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame.

This year, eight fillies and mares will vie for an entry into the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. The typical summer weather has set in. High humidity, with temps feeling like 105 degrees with mid-afternoon showers. Gulfstream has a good drainage system so the track should be good to fast by the time the fillies take their positions in the gate.

The Favorites:

BIRDATTHEWIRE (Summer Bird - My Limit, by Wagon Limit) ships in from Churchill for Dale Romans. No stranger to Gulfstream Park, Birdatthewire is a neck shy of a perfect record over the main track. Romans recently received the filly back into his barn. She won the LaBrea (G1) while in his care last December, but hasn’t been close to winning since that victory.  She’ll enter the Princess Rooney in her second start off of a layoff for Romans. The trainer captured the Princess Rooney ‘Cap in ’11 with Sassy Image.

SPELLING AGAIN (Awesome Again - Spelling, by Alphabet Soup) has really been mismanaged throughout her career. She has the pedigree to excel at classic distances over dirt, yet she’s been campaigned no farther than a mile over turf, Tapita and dirt. Perhaps part of the reason is that she wants to either lead or press the pace. Despite this, Spelling Again has hit the board in 13 of 19 starts. The Brad Cox trainee is certainly the class of the race. She’s been competitive with the Graded Stakes crowd lately and has hit the board in four of six of her last starts at that level.

CALI STAR (Street Cry (IRE) - Graeme Six, by Graeme Hall) was recently purchased by WinstarFarm and is a stablemate to Kiss to Remember. She won the Rampart (G3) here last December.  Toss Cali Star’s last race. She obviously didn’t like the track, and she stumbled after the race, losing jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Cali Star cuts back in distance, but she will sit off the pace and should be running at the end.

Logical Longshots:

KISS TO REMEMBER (Big Brown - Taft Lil Queen, by Irish Open) may remember kisses, but she has forgotten how to find the winner’s circle. Maybe she doesn’t like having her picture taken. The Chestnut mare has recently strung together a trio of second place finishes, all at a mile. She was third in the Princess Rooney last year, for trainer Marty Wolfson, but hasn’t won a race since July 2015. Wolfson has won the Princess Rooney Handicap four times, twice in the last five years.  

CONCEALEDWITHAKISS (Political Force - Bold Outlook, by Chief Seattle) is aiming for three straight victories. She takes a step up in class, but this isn’t the strongest field and it is a logical step.  Concealedwithakiss bested Kiss to Remember in their last two meetings.

Underdogs:

MY MISS VENEZUELA (Hold Me Back - Multipass, by Olmodavor) won the Sea Lily Stakes in her first start off of a 3 ½ month layoff.  The six furlong contest is prep race for the Princess Rooney. My Miss Venezuela won by 2 ¼ lengths in 1:10.86, but her final 1/8 was in a slow 13.47. The Bruno Tessore trainee hasn’t managed to string together two back-to-back victories. Additionally, Emisael Jaramillo, who has been aboard for the last two starts, decamps in favor of Kiss to Remember, whom he’s never ridden.  

BE MIND PHIL (Philanthropist - Note to Self, by Notebook) and WILLOW HILLS (Distorted Humor - Pleasant Hill, by Pleasant Tap) round out the field.  Be Mind Phil is a hardy, optional claimer who hits the board more often than not. She’s moving up in company in her first start for trainer Jacob Molina.  Willow Hills is making her first start since last November for her new trainer, David Fawkes.  The mare has a string of steady breezes at Gulfstream, but Fawkes is only 9% with horses off of the layoff.

Selections:

There is plenty of early speed in the Princess Rooney, however, the pace setters haven’t fared well in this race. In the last five years, four of the last five winners were third or farther back in the early stages. Most were pressers/mid-pack types, while one was a stalker.  Five horses in here have a good chance of hitting the board.

#8 KISS TO REMEMBER (5-1)

#1 CALI STAR (9-2)

#4 BIRDATTHEWIRE (8-5) 

#5 CONCEALEDWITHAKISS (20-1)

#7 SPELLING AGAIN (3-1)

Handigambling:

$0.50 Super Box - #1, #4, #5, #7, #8 = $60

$2 WPS (4-1 or higher) #8, #5 = $6