Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Queen's Plate

Canada's Triple Crown Quest Starts with Queen's Plate

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

The quest for Canada’s Triple Crown begins Saturday in Toronto, Ontario, with the 160th running of the $1 million Queen’s Plate, from Woodbine Racetrack.

Steeped in tradition, the Queen’s Plate is not only Canada’s most storied and prestigious thoroughbred race, it is also the oldest continuously run stakes race in North America, dating back to 1860.

Like their American counterpart, Canada’s trio of races are run at three different distances. However, there are a few dissimilarities. Our northerly neighbors will see out their Triple Crown over a period of seven weeks of summer, as opposed to five in the States during early springtime. Three different racing surfaces are utilized for the Canadian version and just two tracks are involved in the sequence. 

Following the Queen’s Plate, which will be contested at 1¼ miles on Woodbine’s synthetic-surface main track, the historic series will continue with the Prince of Wales Stakes, a 1 3/16-mile event to be run on conventional dirt at Fort Erie Racetrack on Tuesday, July 23rd. The finale is the 1 ½ mile Breeders’ Stakes over the sweeping, international style E.P. Taylor turf course back at Woodbine on August 17th.

A quartet of trainers, including previous Plate winners, Mark Casse and Josie Carroll, have entered two runners each in this 10-furlong contest. One notable name among trainers in Queen’s Plate history, Roger Attfield, is absent from this year’s lineup. The 79-year old legendary Hall of Fame conditioner has won this race eight times, tying him with Harry Giddings for the most Plate wins.

The most famous winner of the Queen’s Plate is Northern Dancer. The Canadian-bred colt won the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but his attempt of sweeping the American Triple Crown failed when finishing third in the Belmont. He returned to Canada and won the Queen’s Plate in the final start of his career.

12 horses are officially recognized as winning the Canadian Triple Crown, with Wando (2003) being the last one to accomplish the feat.

Post time is scheduled for 5:36 pm E.S.T. From the rail out, let’s take a look at the field of 14 sophomores.

PP – HORSE – Jockey/Trainer – ML

1 - DESERT RIDE -  Steven Bahen/Neil Howard – 8-1  In her first start on synthetic, this improving gal was an impressive winner of the Oaks, coming from last place and roaring down the Woodbine stretch to nab last year’s juvenile champion filly at the wire in a winning time that was much quicker than the Plate Trial run one race earlier. The girls have won the last two editions of the Plate and three out of the last seven years, and this ones five-time Plate winning owners struck twice before with fillies in this event.

2 - MOON SWINGS – Jesse Campbell/Mike DePaulo – 30-1  After 11 attempts, this gelding is still looking to break into the win column. He was stakes placed three times as a juvenile last season. Was one of a trio of maidens that contested the Plate Trial. He raced mid-pack until the far turn, before advancing to third by mid-stretch, but couldn’t punch it home and was passed late to end up fourth.

3 - KRACHENWAGON – Jeffrey Alderson/Angus Buntain – 50-1 As a two-year old, this gelding started four times in a six-week period last fall and produced positive results, winning once and finishing third twice. However, he hasn’t returned to the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden in his debut. He went a route of ground for the first time two starts back and last time out in the Plate Trial, he was closing with some interest when finishing fifth.

4 - PAY FOR PEACE – Rafael Hernandez/Rachel Halden – 15 -1 Longshot winner of the Plate Trial stalked a slow pace then rallied and pulled clear to score a 19-1 upset. The impressive win was his first in seven months, and a career best which puts him squarely in the mix for the big show. His progress is on the upswing and he’s getting good at the right time, however, he will need further advancement if he is to have any shot at taking all the marbles.

5 - ONE BAD BOY – Flavien Prat/Richard Baltas – 7-2   Speedy west coast invader makes his first venture away from his home-base, but tries synthetic again after testing the Golden Gate Fields Tapeta surface where he battled on the lead in the Alcatraz Stakes, before weakening and finishing second. California upstart was runner-up in his second lifetime start to Omaha Beach. After racing exclusively in blinkers, that equipment will now be removed.

6 - LUCAS N LORI - Kazushi Kimura/Kevin Attard – 50-1 Broke maiden ranks in his fourth and final race of his two-year campaign. As a sophomore, he’s been well beaten in two optional claiming races, but he’s also been a bit unlucky in each.

7 - FEDERAL LAW – Jamie Spencer/Mark Casse – 15 -1 Received his introduction to racing in England before heading to North America late last summer. He set a slow pace in the Plate Trial, opening a clear lead, but couldn’t hold and settled for second best. He also failed to last in the Wando Stakes. However, in between those races he did win the Queenston Stakes going shorter. Tested Avie’s Flatter in last year’s Coronation Futurity, but his game effort fell short. 

8 - HE’S A MACHO MAN – Patrick Husbands/Josie Carroll - 15 -1 Son of a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner has taken 2 of 3 starts on his resume and is unbeaten over the Woodbine Tapeta. He enters off nearly a six-week respite, but he’s worked three times since his allowance victory on May 20th. 

9 - SUITEDCONNECTED - Gary Boulanger/Robert Barnett – 50-1 Is a one-time winner from four starts, and did not finished better than seventh in his other three races. 

10 - SKYWIRE – Eurico Da Silva/Mark Casse – 4-1 Displayed a bit of versatility two starts back when winning the Wando after pressing the pace, then reverted back to his closing style of running in the slowly run Marine Stakes, where his wide stretch run over an inside-biased surface came up a length short. Trainer Casse, who won two-thirds of this year’s American Triple Crown, tries for back-to-back Plate wins and his third overall. DaSilva opted for this runner over the morning line favorite.

11 - TONE BROKE – Luis Contreras/Steve Asmussen – 6-1 After a pair of uninspiring performances in Dubai, this American-based colt got himself back into Plate consideration with a solid runner-up showing in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard. The winner, King for a Day, subsequently knocked off Maximum Security in the Haskell at Monmouth. Gets his initial test on synthetic in this spot.

12 - JAMMIN STILL - Alan Garcia/Kevin Attard – 30-1  Maiden winner has struggled when pitted against stakes competition. Most recently, he failed to threaten in the Plate Trial, where he finished seventh. 

13 - RISING STAR – Justin Stein/Mike DePaulo – 30-1 Although this colt has been blanked in eight lifetime starts, his most recent run against stakes winners in the Plate Trial was inspiring. He saved ground the entire way behind a slow pace, then closed from last-place with a determined charge thru the stretch to finished third. Sire has produced two recent Queen’s Plate winners. 

14 - AVIE’S FLATTER – Javier Castellano/Josie Carroll – 5-2 With connections bypassing the Trial to aim for this contest, the winter-book favorite for the Plate has trained strongly off an eight-week layoff following a close sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 American Turf at Churchill last start. Has won 4 of 6 lifetime starts and seeks to become the first Coronation Futurity-Queen’s Plate winner in 44 years. Is conditioned by a two-time Plate wining trainer. 

ANALYSIS: In my opinion, the four horses listed below are the main contenders here. A win by any of the others would be unexpected. 

AVIE’S FLATTER is consistent and has successfully handled an extended period between races. He’ll need an uninterrupted trip to get it done from his outside draw, but should benefit nicely from the class relief he gets in this spot. 

SKYWIRE is the fastest horse in the race having earned a 99 Bris Speed figure two back when winning the Wando Stakes over this surface. Has a versatile running style that allows him to adapt whatever pace situation calls for. 

ONE BAD BOY has a nice touch of early foot, removes the blinkers and could default into the pace setter role. He races beyond a mile for the first time, but in this field made-up of predominately stalkers and closers, he could lead this group a long way on an uncontested lead. 

DESERT RIDE won the important Woodbine Oaks in her first attempt over the synthetic surface. Her speed figure from that race improved dramatically, indicating the filly is rapidly improving. She’s good enough to win this, but needs pace help in order to get it done. 

WAGER: With $100 Thorofan dollars, I’ll bet $40 to win on AVIE’S FLATTER and play him in $10 exacta boxes with the other three ($60 total).

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.

Handicapper's Corner: Queen's Plate Stakes

Will a Filly Capture the Queen's Plate?

By: Nick Costa, Trackside With Trackman

Horse racing fans and Canada’s best 3-year-olds are gearing up for the 158th running of the Queen's Plate, the country's oldest and most prestigious race for thoroughbreds, and North America’s longest continuously run race, taking place Sunday at Toronto's Woodbine Racetrack.

Founded in 1860, this 1 1/4-mile-long race contested on the Polytrack, is only open to three-year-old’s who were foaled in Canada, and this year's edition attracted a field of thirteen, including fillies Holy Helena and Inflexibility, the first and third place finishers respectively from the Woodbine Oaks. The former was installed as the morning line favorite following the post draw. Also in the field, is Queen's Plate winter book favorite, Tiz A Slam, fourth last out in the Plate Trial, and trained by 8-time Plate winning trainer Roger Attfield.

Besides Attfield, the race features three additional trainers who have combined for 5 Plate wins, as well as six jockeys totaling 8 wins, with Eurico Rosa da Silva and Patrick Husbands having two each.

The Queen’s Plate is the first race in the Canadian Triple Crown series. The second and final races are the Prince of Wales Stakes in Fort Erie, Ontario, and the Breeders’ Stakes back at Woodbine in Toronto. 

Two years ago, when American Pharoah won the American Triple Crown, it ended a 37-year drought in the United States. For Canada, the wait hasn't been as severe, but its still been a notable period-of-time since 2003 when Wando last accomplished the feat.

Who will take home the prize this year? Let's have a look at each contestant from the rail out for this $1 million 10-furlong test.

PP - HORSE - Jockey/Trainer - ML Odds

1-CHANNEL MAKER - Hernandez/Mott - 4-1--Graduated in style when breaking his maiden in the Vandal Stakes last summer in just his second start, winning with front-running effort after shrugging off early challenges. After his first start in 2017, an eighth-place finish at Gulfstream, he was transferred into his current barn. Under Mott, this son of English Channel suffered a couple of troubled trips at Keeneland, but still ran quite well. Proven talent on turf finished second in his first ever start on Tapeta last out in the Marine Stakes after looming a major threat to the outside. He drew to within a head of the leader at the stretch call and the two horses separated themselves from the rest of the field. However, down the lane, the leader and eventual winner turned that narrow advantage into a two-length margin at the wire. Serious contender.

2-GUY CABALLERO - Ortiz/Phillips - 10-1--This gelding by Quality Road has a knack for closing well in the stretch. Such was the case in his seasonal debut against a strong allowance field where he got motoring late to secure second place. Off that seven- furlong sprint, he was stretched out in distance for the Plate Trial, and this lightly raced runner who was a 20-1 longshot in a field of six rallied from last place against fractions that did not compliment his closing style to get up to win in the final strides by a half-length. As a 2-year old, he showed ability with a third-place finish in the Display Stakes that closed out his juvenile campaign. Comes in fresh and on the improve, and gets an extra furlong of real estate.

3-HOLY HELENA - Contreras/Jerkens - 3-1--After her winning performance in the Woodbine Oaks, Ghostzapper filly is well deserving of this appearance. Her final time for the 9-furlongs was more than a full second faster than the winner of the Plate Trial a couple of races before on the card. She made her debut in New York in April and was runner-up that day, but broke her maiden impressively in a determined effort second time out. Off that score, she was highly touted when shipping up for the Oaks, so much so, that she was made the ML favorite for that race. However, the betting crowd thought otherwise and foolishly let her slip away at 6-1 odds, and then watched her rally confidently from mid-pack behind a strong pace for a going away 1-length win. Generally, fillies who win big in the Oaks are extremely tough in the Plate, and this gal is surging upward quickly.

4-SPIRIT of CALEDON - Lermyte/Parente - 50-1--Although it came in start number six, breaking maiden ranks is the high-water mark thus far for this horse. Last time out, against non-winner allowance company, he raced mid-pack before launching a bid around the far turn and into the lane, but his late run came up short and he finished third. Connections had to pay a $25,000 supplemental fee to run this Mike Fox gelding in Canada's premier race. Don't see this one being any sort of factor.

5-INFLEXIBILTY - Castellano/Brown - 10-1--From the same connections as recent G1 Preakness Stakes winner Cloud Computing, this gal invaded from New York for the Woodbine Oaks and was anointed the 5-2 betting favorite. She was positioned up close early and had a good stalking trip, but the daughter of Scat Daddy, who was making her debut over the polytrack surface, was caught behind the tiring leaders and was shuffled back to mid-pack by the three-quarter marker before getting herself off the rail and untracked. Once clear, she rallied between horses through the stretch for a third-place finish, but six lengths behind the runner-up horse. The Oaks was just her third lifetime start following a pair of grass efforts at Gulfstream and Belmont which resulted in a second-place showing and a win, respectively. The barn is highly capable wherever it goes, and they have an improving and dangerous racehorse with this filly.

6-KING AND HIS COURT - Boulanger/Casse - 5-1--Sovereign Award champion 2-year-old from last year is the most experienced runner in the field with thirteen career starts, including four victories and nine in-the-money placings. Other than his two races away from his home base of Woodbine, which came during the winter/spring in a pair of G3 Stakes on the U.S. Triple Crown trail, resulting in consecutive lackluster off-the-board finishes, this son of Court Vision has been ultra-consistent and enters here off a rail skimming runner-up finish in the Plate Trial. LOVES Woodbine, winning the Coronation Futurity and Display Stakes as a juvenile, in addition to his dominant win in the Wando two starts back. If he displays his strong late kick, which seemed to be absent last race, he's certainly a huge threat to win.

7-STATE OF HONOR - Husbands/Casse - 8-1--Made all the pace to the halfway point in the Kentucky Derby, but simply couldn't keep the momentum going in the grueling 1 1/4-mile G1 event. Last time out in the Plate Trial, he again took control of the early lead and held it into the stretch before succumbing late. Colt has kept a busy campaign racing once a month since January, and has been graded stakes placed multiple times, including runner-up in the G1 Florida Derby behind the eventual Kentucky Derby winner. Despite those accolades, the son of To Honor and Serve remains just a maiden winner through a dozen starts, but that lone win came over this surface last October.

8-MALIBU SECRET - Garcia/Pierce - 20-1--Well regarded and improving Malibu Moon colt, owned by Sam-Son farm, winners of this Canadian classic five times, enters the Queen's Plate with just three races on his resume. The dark bay colt debuted with a runner-up finish in the Vandal Stakes on the turf in his lone juvenile race here last summer. Suffered a minor shin injury following that start and went to the sidelines for eight and a half months. Upon his return in maiden allowance company, he rallied swiftly from eighth-place to first to earn his graduation. Last time out in the Marine Stakes, which marked his stakes and two-turn debut, he had a bit of stretch trouble when finishing third, but his overall performance was encouraging enough to earn a start in here. Has more speed than he's shown and carries plenty of potential. Runs third time off the layoff, often a horse's best, so he cannot be dismissed.

9-MEGAGRAY - Campbell/Keogh - 30-1--Langfuhr colt is lightly raced with just four starts. Broke his maiden second time out last year and then following an eight-month layoff, he returned with a good third-place finish in his seasonal debut in the Wando Stakes behind a pair of top Plate contenders after attending the early pace. Three weeks late in the Marine Stakes, he was in the mix behind horses as they rounded the far turn, but could only chase down the stretch as the top two finishers pulled away, and he ended up a distant fourth. Will need a career best effort to get it done.

10-VAUGHN - Callaghan/Mattine - 50-1--A late addition to the lineup, this colt by City Zip has just two starts on his resume. It was an inauspicious beginning to the races for this colt as he practically walked out of the gate in his debut. He trailed the field, but stayed on the inside all the way into the stretch and passed tiring horses for a seventh- place finish. Two weeks later, going 8.5 furlongs over a turf course listed as yielding, the result was a much-improved effort. He broke alertly, stalked the leader from just off the pace, made a strong bid approaching the end of the turn to get within a half-length of the front, then ran evenly through the lane in a third-place finish. Unlikely to succeed in this spot as only one maiden has ever won the Queen's Plate (Scatter the Gold in 2000).

11-AURORA WAY - Leparoux/Simon - 6-1--A few minor issues and a fear of the starting gate prevented this Giant's Causeway colt from racing as a juvenile. However, when those problems that hindered him were finally overcome, he appeared for his racing debut the day before the Plate Trial, and what an impressive showing it was. He raced in mid-pack behind slow fractions before commencing his bid approaching the far turn. He swept four-wide and upon took a short lead at the top of the lane, he then opened up on his rivals to win comfortably by four lengths at the wire. The Plate has always been the target for this runner, and despite his late start to the races and the lack of experience against more seasoned rivals, his connections are hoping the talent this colt possesses can be the equalizer.

12-TIZ A SLAM - Rosa da Silva/Attfield - 10-1--Son of Tiznow was one of the better juveniles locally last season winning three of four starts, including a confident score in the Cup and Saucer Stakes over the Woodbine lawn. This year as a sophomore, he's on a three-race losing skid. Finished fifth in a close effort in his opener down at Tampa, then returned home to be a game second as the heavy favorite in the Wando Stakes. In the Plate Trial, he stayed within striking distance, but then lost ground around the final turn and appeared to be hampered with no racing room. Once the field straighten away, he then managed to finish up nicely along the inside to be beaten less than 2-lengths. It was a bit of a strange trip, but nonetheless it still served as a useful prep. Talented runner would give Attfield a record ninth Queen's Plate win should he take this Canadian Classic. Is a major player and looms perhaps the one to beat.

13-WATCH ME STRUT - Moran/Phillips - 30-1--In his initial try around two-turns last month, he was racing ninth and last with a quarter-mile remaining before kicking into overdrive, circling widest on the far turn and zipping past his eight rivals to score a one-and-a-half length victory in non-winner allowance company. That was the gelding's third win from five starts. He notched two wins and a third-place effort last year from his three juvenile starts before being put away. The son of Strut the Stage lost all chance when he stumbled and bumped into a rival at the start in his 2017 opener back in early May. Look for him to be trying to make an impact late.

Analysis:

This is always an interesting and difficult race to handicap as it is run at a mile and a quarter like the Kentucky Derby. And once again, we're dealing with the same uncharted territory of horses having never before competed at the distance. One just doesn't know with any certainty that a horse can get the 10-furlong distance until it is proven. Success in the preliminary races at middle distances (1 1/16 and 1 1/8) is not enough to predict how a 3-yr old will perform at a mile and a quarter. The additional distance of ground that needs to be covered is what separates the contenders from the pretenders. The race is won or lost in the last furlong.

What to do? I'm not an expert on thoroughbred pedigrees, but I find that spending a little bit of time perusing them can let you know which horses have the inherent genetic ability and plenty of stamina in their blood to get the distance, and which ones could be challenged by the grueling mile and a quarter. 

In addition, when handicapping the Plate, two-year old experience, which is critical for KY Derby candidates, has only mild importance here, simply because the Plate is contested later in the year than the Derby. What is more important to consider is that a horse has experience at a two-turn distance. 

Winning these races isn't necessary, but running well in the most recent preps is usually a requirement.

Pedigree, plus performance gets the prize. 

Based on pedigree, the horses listed below (alphabetically) grade out best for me in terms of being bred to handle the 10-furlongs and I believe one of them will be the likely winner.

Channel Maker

Inflexibility

Malibu Secret

Tiz A Slam

Play:

I will let the odds at post time dictate as to which horse(s) I will back to win.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!

 

Handicapper's Corner: Queens Plate

Speed Lines Up in Queen’s Plate

By: Reinier Macatangay, Lady and The Track

Canada is in the racing spotlight this Sunday when Woodbine Racetrack hosts the 157th Queen’s Plate, worth $1 million, for 3-year-old horses bred in the country. The race features talented colts, geldings and the filly Gamble’s Ghost, who will attempt to follow in Inglorious’ footsteps from 2011 when she defeated males en-route to victory.

To help with the analysis, this writer is bringing in someone who racing fans lurking around social media are undoubtedly familiar with. Casey Laughter not only writes for Lady and The Track as well, but the now well-known (thanks to Maria Borell) US Racing, in addition to her own personal blog A World Full of Furlongs.

The job of this writer is to completely disagree with every comment she makes.

Mike (Philanthropist – Uproar, by Hail the Ruckus)
Casey: This Ontario-bred colt won on debut but has yet to seal the deal outside of maiden special weight company, with only a seventh and a pair of third-place finishes to round out his record. The colt has never been further than 8.5 furlongs. His pedigree does not suggest that he will be well equipped for ten furlongs but his stalking running style could offer first jump as the frontrunners get leg weary.

Reinier: As Casey wrote, his form outside the maiden ranks has been disappointing. His pedigree does not even seem worth the time to research.

Narrow Escape (Sky Conqueror – Certainly Special, by Distorted Humor)
Casey: After breaking his maiden in his fourth start, he backed up that win with another score in allowance company, and even defeated Mike in that last start. He likes to be in front, and take the field on a game of catch me if you can. Narrow Escape certainly has a pedigree that screams class but is borderline for ten furlongs.

Reinier: While it is nice to see some local scores, his running style is troubling. Other speed, from horses who are either equal or better, is on the outside and will keep this runner pressured enough to expect a fade.

All On Red (Hard Spun – Wicked Diva, by Jump Start)
Casey: With a first glance at the pedigree, All On Red is bred well for the ten furlongs. He most recently finished second in a Woodbine allowance to get familiar with the all weather course after breaking his maiden at Aqueduct going a flat mile. He likes to be close to the lead, or on it if he can, and will keep Narrow Escape company.

Reinier: At first glance the pedigree does look good. Hard Spun lost the Kentucky Derby (GI), Preakness (GI) and Belmont Stakes (GI) due to circumstances such as pace and poor jockey strategy, not distance ability. Consider.

 

Leavem in Malibu (Malibu Moon – Leaveminthedust, by Danzig)
Casey: The colt is 2-for-3 at Woodbine on the all weather surface and is riding a two-race win streak. While he has never been further than 8.5 furlongs, he has a solid performance record behind him, as well as blue blood running through his veins. He could easily sit off the early pace and make first run right off the speed. Look for him to move coming into the stretch.

Reinier: His two wins look impressive on paper, and fans will instantly recognize the ill-fated sibling Danzig Moon if they research the siblings. Too much speed is in this race already, although this one can rate a little bit. Use him and pray for a good trip.

Sir Dudley Digges (Gio Ponti – My Pal Lana, by Kris S)
Casey: This colt only has one win in eight lifetime starts. He has a pedigree that suggests all weather surfaces should be well within his wheelhouse, but only managed third last time out in the Plate Trial Stakes at Woodbine. He broke his maiden at Keeneland on the turf, which makes sense if one looks at his pedigree. He likely needs to remain on turf, but should adjust okay here as well. He also tends to sit close, if not be on the lead. He will help press a pace and set the race up for closers, most likely.

Reinier: Yes, he won at Keeneland, but it sure took him long enough though with seven tries to break his maiden. This is yet another horse who wants to sit close or be on the lead. Not all of them will survive the pace.

Shakhimat (Lonhro – Reggae Rose, by Touch Gold)
Casey: Recently, Shakhimat finished runner-up in the Plate Trial Stakes going nine furlongs by 2 ½ lengths. Earlier in the year, Shakhimat won the Transylvania Stakes (GIII) at Keeneland on the turf. His pedigree suggests turf would likely be his calling, but he has won twice on this very same track as a two-year-old. He could easily return to from here and win this for fun. His pedigree suggests the distance should not be a problem. He is a stalker and should find comfort behind the speed horses.

Reinier: A stalker? In all six of his career starts, he has been first or second at the first call. The talent is there, as he did win a graded stakes at Keeneland. The same story keeps getting repeated though. This horse likes to be on or near the lead just like some others in this field, making a collapse look inevitable.

My Name Is Jim (Society’s Chairman – Romanced, by Smoke Glacken)
Casey: This gelding for Reade Baker broke his maiden last out in his third start. His workouts alone prove that he is fast, as he most recently fired a bullet on June 26. He is another that likes to be on the lead, but was able to carry speed over nine furlongs last out in his maiden score. The fractions were insanely easy (the ½ went up in 50.39, the ¾ in 1:14.86) but if he can either relax off the more intense speed, or step it up, he could be a contender here.

Reinier: Speed, speed and more speed!

Rocket Plan (Plan – Gin N Ginger, by Go For Gin)
Casey: This gelded son of Plan has the perfect running style for the likely pace scenario we will get in the Queen’s Plate. He was just caught at the wire last out in a seven furlong allowance race. While this race is much longer than he is likely used to, he is bred to potentially get the distance with the right set up. He may even do better running longer. I like this horse here with his running style.

Reinier: Finally, here is a horse who can sit in midpack. Unfortunately, the class is in question. Look what happened in the Nov. 28 race when he faced Amis Gizmo. Young horses sometimes change though.

Cheburashka (Milwaukee Brew – Zoogdidi(GB), by Singspiel (IRE))
Casey: He broke his maiden in his fourth start as a two-year-old. Coming back at three in an allowance, he again won. Both his wins have come at 8.5 furlongs. In his latest start, he faded to fourth after leading the 8.5 furlong contest into the stretch, He is another frontrunner, so determining where he needs to be will be up to rider Rafael Hernandez and trainer Robert Tiller.

Reinier: In his last five starts, he has led or been second at the first call. Lower-class horses can only steal a race if there is not significant speed lined up against them, and there is in this spot. 

Amis Gizmo (Giant Gizmo – Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop)
Casey: This colt broke his maiden first out in the OLG Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine, traveling 6.5 furlongs. He is the Plate Trial Stakes winner, along with three other stakes wins to his credit. He did finish fifth in the Wando Stakes, but otherwise, has never finished worse than first. He is a major contender here.

Reinier: It is agreed this one is a major contender, although he brings even more speed to a table rapidly losing space. If a few of the speed horses survive, Amis Gizmo seems probable to be one of those quality runners to fight until the finish. The price on him will not be so enticing though.

 

Esposito (Ghostzapper – Money My Honey, by Red Bullet)
Casey: Esposito has a good record going for him. He has never finished worse than third, and in doing so, he has faced horses like Discreetness and Suddenbreakingnews. He broke his maiden at Del Mar but now ships in from Remington to face this group. If he can be competitive against horses like those listed above, he could have a chance here. He did win an allowance race over the track and seemed fine with the footing. He is a pace presser but he could be held off a bit more with the amount of speed here.

Reinier: This Ghostzapper colt certainly brings class considering the horses he faced at Remington Park. Also, with only four starts there is upside, and trainer Thomas Proctor is a familiar name. Hopefully, jockey Alan Garcia holds him back at least four or five lengths, as there will be no breaks up front with all the speed lined up.

Scholar Athlete (Einstein (BRZ) – Creme Catalan, by El Prado (IRE))
Casey: Scholar Athlete ships back in after finally getting a second win in an allowance race at Belmont Park. He raced at Turfway in the Rushaway Stakes but only managed fifth. He has performed well at Woodbine, even breaking his maiden there, but seems over his head here. Distance will not be an issue, but his class might be.

Reinier: In terms of class, usually horses who can win on the New York circuit possess more class than the average Woodbine stakes horse, especially since so many Woodbine races are restricted to Canadian breds (including this one). But, it is hard not to notice Shakhimat drilled him by 11 lengths last fall at Woodbine.

Gamble’s Ghost (Ghostzapper – Gambling Girl, by Secret Claim)
Casey: This filly once again arrives in the Queen’s Plate to take on the boys. While she finished sixth in the Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay, she has never been worse than second when competing at Woodbine. She most recently finished second in the Woodbine Oaks but won the Selene Stakes (GIII) in the start prior to that. She looks poised to be the main competition in this race.

Reinier: On running style alone, she has a wonderful advantage as a quality closer. The sixth-place finish in Tampa is forgivable, and the second in the Woodbine Oaks came after a troubled trip behind a collapsing pace. If the pace collapses in the Queen’s Plate, except her to be right up there making a charge.

 

Casey’s Picks: Amis Gizmo, Gamble’s Ghost, Rocket Plan, Mike

Reinier’s Picks: Gamble’s Ghost, Esposito, Leavem in Malibu, Shakhimat

Handigambling (Reinier)

$11 exactas ($99 in all)
Gamble’s Ghost, Esposito, Leavem in Malibu over Gamble’s Ghost, Esposito, Leavem in Malibu, Shakimat

$1 tip for the teller after the ticket hits.