Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Queen's Plate

Canada's Triple Crown Quest Starts with Queen's Plate

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

 

The quest for Canada’s Triple Crown begins Saturday in Toronto, Ontario, with the 160th running of the $1 million Queen’s Plate, from Woodbine Racetrack.

Steeped in tradition, the Queen’s Plate is not only Canada’s most storied and prestigious thoroughbred race, it is also the oldest continuously run stakes race in North America, dating back to 1860.

Like their American counterpart, Canada’s trio of races are run at three different distances. However, there are a few dissimilarities. Our northerly neighbors will see out their Triple Crown over a period of seven weeks of summer, as opposed to five in the States during early springtime. Three different racing surfaces are utilized for the Canadian version and just two tracks are involved in the sequence. 

Following the Queen’s Plate, which will be contested at 1¼ miles on Woodbine’s synthetic-surface main track, the historic series will continue with the Prince of Wales Stakes, a 1 3/16-mile event to be run on conventional dirt at Fort Erie Racetrack on Tuesday, July 23rd. The finale is the 1 ½ mile Breeders’ Stakes over the sweeping, international style E.P. Taylor turf course back at Woodbine on August 17th.

A quartet of trainers, including previous Plate winners, Mark Casse and Josie Carroll, have entered two runners each in this 10-furlong contest. One notable name among trainers in Queen’s Plate history, Roger Attfield, is absent from this year’s lineup. The 79-year old legendary Hall of Fame conditioner has won this race eight times, tying him with Harry Giddings for the most Plate wins.

The most famous winner of the Queen’s Plate is Northern Dancer. The Canadian-bred colt won the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but his attempt of sweeping the American Triple Crown failed when finishing third in the Belmont. He returned to Canada and won the Queen’s Plate in the final start of his career.

12 horses are officially recognized as winning the Canadian Triple Crown, with Wando (2003) being the last one to accomplish the feat.

Post time is scheduled for 5:36 pm E.S.T. From the rail out, let’s take a look at the field of 14 sophomores.

PP – HORSE – Jockey/Trainer – ML

1 - DESERT RIDE -  Steven Bahen/Neil Howard – 8-1  In her first start on synthetic, this improving gal was an impressive winner of the Oaks, coming from last place and roaring down the Woodbine stretch to nab last year’s juvenile champion filly at the wire in a winning time that was much quicker than the Plate Trial run one race earlier. The girls have won the last two editions of the Plate and three out of the last seven years, and this ones five-time Plate winning owners struck twice before with fillies in this event.

2 - MOON SWINGS – Jesse Campbell/Mike DePaulo – 30-1  After 11 attempts, this gelding is still looking to break into the win column. He was stakes placed three times as a juvenile last season. Was one of a trio of maidens that contested the Plate Trial. He raced mid-pack until the far turn, before advancing to third by mid-stretch, but couldn’t punch it home and was passed late to end up fourth.

3 - KRACHENWAGON – Jeffrey Alderson/Angus Buntain – 50-1 As a two-year old, this gelding started four times in a six-week period last fall and produced positive results, winning once and finishing third twice. However, he hasn’t returned to the winner’s circle since breaking his maiden in his debut. He went a route of ground for the first time two starts back and last time out in the Plate Trial, he was closing with some interest when finishing fifth.

4 - PAY FOR PEACE – Rafael Hernandez/Rachel Halden – 15 -1 Longshot winner of the Plate Trial stalked a slow pace then rallied and pulled clear to score a 19-1 upset. The impressive win was his first in seven months, and a career best which puts him squarely in the mix for the big show. His progress is on the upswing and he’s getting good at the right time, however, he will need further advancement if he is to have any shot at taking all the marbles.

5 - ONE BAD BOY – Flavien Prat/Richard Baltas – 7-2   Speedy west coast invader makes his first venture away from his home-base, but tries synthetic again after testing the Golden Gate Fields Tapeta surface where he battled on the lead in the Alcatraz Stakes, before weakening and finishing second. California upstart was runner-up in his second lifetime start to Omaha Beach. After racing exclusively in blinkers, that equipment will now be removed.

6 - LUCAS N LORI - Kazushi Kimura/Kevin Attard – 50-1 Broke maiden ranks in his fourth and final race of his two-year campaign. As a sophomore, he’s been well beaten in two optional claiming races, but he’s also been a bit unlucky in each.

7 - FEDERAL LAW – Jamie Spencer/Mark Casse – 15 -1 Received his introduction to racing in England before heading to North America late last summer. He set a slow pace in the Plate Trial, opening a clear lead, but couldn’t hold and settled for second best. He also failed to last in the Wando Stakes. However, in between those races he did win the Queenston Stakes going shorter. Tested Avie’s Flatter in last year’s Coronation Futurity, but his game effort fell short. 

8 - HE’S A MACHO MAN – Patrick Husbands/Josie Carroll - 15 -1 Son of a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner has taken 2 of 3 starts on his resume and is unbeaten over the Woodbine Tapeta. He enters off nearly a six-week respite, but he’s worked three times since his allowance victory on May 20th. 

9 - SUITEDCONNECTED - Gary Boulanger/Robert Barnett – 50-1 Is a one-time winner from four starts, and did not finished better than seventh in his other three races. 

10 - SKYWIRE – Eurico Da Silva/Mark Casse – 4-1 Displayed a bit of versatility two starts back when winning the Wando after pressing the pace, then reverted back to his closing style of running in the slowly run Marine Stakes, where his wide stretch run over an inside-biased surface came up a length short. Trainer Casse, who won two-thirds of this year’s American Triple Crown, tries for back-to-back Plate wins and his third overall. DaSilva opted for this runner over the morning line favorite.

11 - TONE BROKE – Luis Contreras/Steve Asmussen – 6-1 After a pair of uninspiring performances in Dubai, this American-based colt got himself back into Plate consideration with a solid runner-up showing in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard. The winner, King for a Day, subsequently knocked off Maximum Security in the Haskell at Monmouth. Gets his initial test on synthetic in this spot.

12 - JAMMIN STILL - Alan Garcia/Kevin Attard – 30-1  Maiden winner has struggled when pitted against stakes competition. Most recently, he failed to threaten in the Plate Trial, where he finished seventh. 

13 - RISING STAR – Justin Stein/Mike DePaulo – 30-1 Although this colt has been blanked in eight lifetime starts, his most recent run against stakes winners in the Plate Trial was inspiring. He saved ground the entire way behind a slow pace, then closed from last-place with a determined charge thru the stretch to finished third. Sire has produced two recent Queen’s Plate winners. 

14 - AVIE’S FLATTER – Javier Castellano/Josie Carroll – 5-2 With connections bypassing the Trial to aim for this contest, the winter-book favorite for the Plate has trained strongly off an eight-week layoff following a close sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 American Turf at Churchill last start. Has won 4 of 6 lifetime starts and seeks to become the first Coronation Futurity-Queen’s Plate winner in 44 years. Is conditioned by a two-time Plate wining trainer. 

ANALYSIS: In my opinion, the four horses listed below are the main contenders here. A win by any of the others would be unexpected. 

AVIE’S FLATTER is consistent and has successfully handled an extended period between races. He’ll need an uninterrupted trip to get it done from his outside draw, but should benefit nicely from the class relief he gets in this spot. 

SKYWIRE is the fastest horse in the race having earned a 99 Bris Speed figure two back when winning the Wando Stakes over this surface. Has a versatile running style that allows him to adapt whatever pace situation calls for. 

ONE BAD BOY has a nice touch of early foot, removes the blinkers and could default into the pace setter role. He races beyond a mile for the first time, but in this field made-up of predominately stalkers and closers, he could lead this group a long way on an uncontested lead. 

DESERT RIDE won the important Woodbine Oaks in her first attempt over the synthetic surface. Her speed figure from that race improved dramatically, indicating the filly is rapidly improving. She’s good enough to win this, but needs pace help in order to get it done. 

WAGER: With $100 Thorofan dollars, I’ll bet $40 to win on AVIE’S FLATTER and play him in $10 exacta boxes with the other three ($60 total).

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.