Small but Elite Field in Fleur de Lis
By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds
Six fillies and mares will contest the 1 1/8-mile Fleur de
Lis Handicap (G2), looking for a free ride to the 2019 Breeders' Cup Distaff in the first Challenge event of the series. Previous
Fleur de
Lis heroines include champions Rachael Alexandra, Royal Delta, and Forever
Unbridled.
Thunderstorms are expected,
and the track will likely be muddy.
The Favorites
ELATE (8-5) is 3 for 4 at 1 1/8-miles, but the farther
the better. She hit the board in a couple of 1 1/16-mile stakes at Oaklawn, and
should appreciate stretching out. Bill Mott previously captured the Fleur de
Lis with Royal Delta. Elate has a superior mud pedigree, and has hit the board
in all 3 starts over a muddy/good track, including once at Churchill.
Making her 2nd start off a layoff, BLUE PRIZE
(ARG) (2-1) is hoping to make it back-to-back wins in the Fleur de Lis. The daughter of Pure Prize needed the start in
the La Troienne (G1), and should offer a
stronger challenge this time around. No worries about a muddy track. Blue Prize
has hit the board in all 4 starts in the off going.
SHE'S A JULIE (2-1) beat Blue Prize in the La Troienne and is
looking for a hat trick after previously capturing the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn.
She likes to press the pace, and with no confirmed pacesetter, could try to
take them gate to wire. She’s never won beyond 1 1/6-miles, but did finish a
distant 2nd in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama. She’s a Julie has an average
pedigree for mud, however, she was unplaced in her sole start over an off
track.
Looking for the Upset
SKEPTIC (10-1) drew the ground-saving rail. That’s a
good thing, as she’s 0-2 at the distance. She may vie for the lead with She’s a
Julie, but has only won 2 of 5 starts at Churchill. If she can slow the pace, perhaps she can
hold on for a piece. Note that she won her maiden in the slop.
GO GOOGLE YOURSELF (10-1) is stretching out in
distance and moving up in class, although she proved she belonged in graded
company last time out in the Doubledogdare, closing to miss by just 3/4 length.
Mud? No problem. She was 2nd by a head in the Dogwood Stakes here
over a sloppy track.
AUSPICIOUS BABE (15-1) does her best running at Churchill. She beat Go Google
Yourself on this course last year, but has been bested twice by Skeptic and
once by She’s a Julie. Auspicious Babe struggles against optional claimers and all
starts in stakes have resulted in off the board finishes.
Selections
#3 Elate (8-5) has the best speed figures in the field. She routinely
records high 90’s to triple digit speed figures. She’s also been off the board
only once since 2017.
#5 Blue Prize (2-1) matches Elate in consistency, and has the benefit of a
recent race.
#2 She’s a Julie (2-1) likes to win, and
while her speed figures are a little below the top pair, she’s won 4 of her
last 6 starts and must be respected. She may get the jump on the top pair.
#4 Go Google Yourself (10-1) is always right there. Her only off the board placing in
the last 2 years was a turf experiment gone wrong in the Regret Stakes.
Handigambling
With just 6 participants and the top 3 evenly paired, the Fleur
de Lis Handicap isn’t a good betting proposition. A tepid case could be made
for Go Google Yourself at 10-1, but it’s doubtful that her odds will stay that
high. A part of handicapping is money
management – how do you get the best ROI for your bet. You could do a box super
on the top 4, or a chalky trifecta wager, and cheer when the expected happens.
A win is a win, I guess. As for me, I’ll
save my hard-earned $100 ThoroFan virtual dollars for another day.
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