Oaklawn Mile: Proven class versus newcomers
By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off
Saturday's ninth race at Oaklawn is the second running of
the Oaklawn Mile, a $150,000 race that drew a full field of fourteen older
horses to contest it.
Benefiting from
the cancellation of so many other races in the handicap division over the last
month, it drew a mix of proven graded stakes horses like Grade 1 winner Tom's
d'Etat, top three-year-olds trying to flourish at four like Mr. Money and
Improbable, Oaklawn dirt route stakes stalwarts, and several who are taking a
shot classwise.
The pace in the Oaklawn Mile should be honest, thanks to a
contingent of longshots who have nothing to lose. Rail-drawn Slick Silver, who takes a
class test, tends to be keen early and will have to send from the rail against
a group like this. Home Run Trick and Kershaw, both drawn further
outside, need to be on the early lead to run a winning race.
There are others with tactical speed, and that's where we
get into horses with a better shot. Tom's
d'Etat makes his first start since the Clark Handicap but has been strong
enough when fresh to figure he will run a good race despite the layoff. Though he can show speed when necessary, he
can stalk the pace or even sit midfield, and Joel Rosario has plenty of
experience rating and rallying with him.
Though he has yet to run at Oaklawn, he has taken his form on the road
enough that he should be able to handle it, wet or dry. He looms squarely the one to beat.
Another one to consider at a price, if spreading on top or
taking a shot in the win pool, is Snapper Sinclair. He has hit the board in each of Oaklawn's
three route stakes for older horses this meet.
He gets a rider change to Florent Geroux, who has been sharp in limited
starts at Oaklawn, and his pace-versatility will give Geroux the option to sit
him virtually anywhere.
Beyond them, there are several others who are worth using
underneath. At boxcar odds, the in-form M
G Warrior should be able to use his best running style -- sitting back and
making one run -- to better effect than he was able to in two recent stakes
tries.
Improbable lost the post position
lottery, but discounting Bob Baffert at Oaklawn is always dangerous, and the
one-mile trip should suit him perfectly.
Bankit is hard to trust on the win end between his plethora of
second-place finishes and the fact that his only wins have come against New
York-breds, but he is a closer who reliably runs on for a share, and should be
able to do just that in this race, which has drawn so much pace.
Most Likely Winner: #3 Tom's d'Etat (3/1)
Consider at a Price:
#7 Snapper Sinclair (10/1)
Exotic Candidates: #6 M G Warrior (15/1), #14 Improbable
(7/2), #8 Bankit (15/1)
