Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Shadwell Turf Mile (G1)

Competitive Betting Possibilities in Shadwell Turf 

By: The Turk

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now beginning our twelfth year.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing us the opportunity to opine on what we love, turf racing. 

My readers and friends and family know that I have been sour on horse racing most of this year.  I needed a break.  The bad press, the self inflicted screw ups, the small fields and my perceived lack of general interest from the race tracks and the people that horde over this sport for the average fan had left me questioning my life's choices.  I'd love to tell you I'm over that, but I'm not.  Watching Santa Anita, and most of California racing, flounder in their own missteps still leaves me jaded. 

The one thing I do love in this sport is turf racing and I've never soured on the horses.  I have a real soft sport for the cagey turf runners in their late careers that can still find that late turn of foot that makes you need to remember them, to account for their pace and positioning.  Similar to my Catholic Church which has been screwed up royally by the actions of flawed humans, so has horse racing, but the one thing humans can't screw up for me is the horses themselves and the hard knocking honest efforts.

Let's get after this!

 

That's quite a field, not too much quality but far from lacking and no real clunkers.  The weather looks relatively dry and warm over the next few days and Saturday before getting wetter Sunday.  You'll find turf conditions and scratches and changes here.

Let's start with a video review of last races.

 The Tourist Mile; 31 August 2019; Firm KD.  Next Shares/1, First Premio/9, Real Story/14  

Secretariat G1; 10 August 2019; Firm 1 Mile; AP.  Van Beethoven/2 and Valid Point/4  

Arlington Million G1; 10 August 2019; 1 1/4 Mile Firm; AP.  Bandua/3  

Del Mar Mile  G2; 18 August 2019; Firm   Bowies Hero/5  

Vanderbilt Stakes G1; 27 July 2019; 6f Fast Dirt; SAR  Diamond OOps/7  

Oettingen-Renned G2; 1 September 2019; Good Turf 1 Mile; Baden Germany.  Vintager(GB)  

Prix du Moulin de Longchamp G1; 8 Sept. 2019; 1 Mile Good/Soft; Robin of Navan (FR)/10  

Bernard Baruch Handicap G2; 2 Spet 2019; 1 1/16 Mile Soft. SAR. March to the Arch/11

I never BS my readers:  I don't have a strong opinion on this race.  That doesn't mean much because my handicaps are built with the best information my eyes see and the data that is available, but from a betting perspective, because it's so close, I didn't have strong convictions on the pace and how the race might unfold.  I've won some big strikes when I felt worse about a race and I have lost races I felt invincible about.  Welcome to the most humbling game in town!

All that said, I liked Bandura coming in off the Arlington Million show.  The four year old son of The Factor, has deceptive Timeform figs and is very tactical.  The data doesn't support me too much here but I like what I see and I like the last two efforts.  

Valid Point is a three year old undefeated Scat Daddy trained by Chad Brown.  His future over a route of grass is bright but is his present good enough to take on seasoned older horses?  A grade 1 winner, The Secretariat field wasn't spectacular.  Class alone has me high on him as each start goes by. I'm not going to analyze too much deeper that this next group as I'll only be looking at exactas and I'll be playing this group in with the top two.   

Bowies Hero ships in from California.  He's a solid mile horse, 8 of 14 in the money with 6 wins.   

Van Beethoven is a Canadian bred Scat Daddy 3 YO also, winless in 6 starts in 2019, winless in 4 tries at the distance.  Last three race running lines before Secretariat:  "...1f out w/o threatening, no threat, never a threat...".  That's a problem.  I liked his Secretariat effort and I think he's improving for Trainer Aidan O'Brien.  

Admission Office is just an honest Trainer Brian Lynch special.  Cutting back a 1/16 from a solid Grade 2 Wise Dan. 

Of the foreign invaders I like Vintager (GB) but others will argue Suedois (Fr).   

Vintager is first time lasix and comes in off two wins.  Trainer Appleby does well first time in North America, 60% off small sample size.

I'll be keeping my risk small and my fun high.  Enjoy friends. Exactas only for me.  3/4 OVER 3/4 and X, Y, Z.  X, Y and Z will be from my B's and C++'s and I'll be looking at value on the tote more than anything else on the past performances.

Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Woodbine Mile (G1)

Fillies Tackle Colts in Woodbine Mile

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Our travels this Saturday take us north of the border to beautiful Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, for the Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

The $1 million event is a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” qualifying race for the Mile, and has attracted a highly competitive field of eleven runners from across North America and Europe.

Headlining the field is the 8-5 morning line favorite, Got Stormy, sent out by trainer, Mark Casse. The four-year old filly is in sparkling form and fresh off a win in the Fourstardave (G1). She became the first female to accomplish the feat in that race. Although she goes out for Woodbine’s leading conditioner, this one should not be considered a local resident, as only one of her 15 career races have come at this track.

However, there is a quintet of horses that do call Woodbine home, headed up by recent track-record setter, Silent Poet, winner of the Play the King Stakes (G2) in his last start.

Also, in the lineup and installed as the 3-1 second choice by the Woodbine oddsmaker is, Raging Bull, saddled by none other than Chad Brown. The lightly raced colt, who was second behind Got Stormy at Saratoga, makes his first appearance at Woodbine.

Scheduled post time is 5:42 p.m. E.D.T. Here is the field from the rail out.

The Woodbine Mile is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” qualifying race for the Mile.

1 - El Tormenta – Eurico Da Silva/Gail Cox – 20-1 : This gelding has done some good things on the turf, including a win in the Connaught Cup (G2). In the Highlander (G1), he made an inside rally from last place to get up to land a fourth-place finish behind a trio of ship-ins at a distance that was probably not ideal for him. His previous two races were not smooth from a trip standpoint. Two back, he was in behind horses top of the stretch, altered course to the far outside and rallied nicely for second, beaten a half-length. Last time out, he got away a bit slow, then lacked room in upper stretch before finding a seam for a mild rally. Has a win and a second at eight-furlongs, so the distance is no problem, but now has to prove it again while facing tougher. 2 - Lucullan – Luis Saez/Kiaran McLaughlin – 8-1 : After being away from racing action for over a year, this five-year old Godolphin-owned runner returned victorious in an allowance optional claiming race at Belmont, then headed north to Saratoga and made it two wins in a row by capturing the Lure stakes. All but his first two races have come on the green stuff, and he has only missed a top three placing once when running on the grass. With five career wins and a combo of four place/show finishes from eleven races, consistency is his forte. The test gets sterner now, as he travels outside the U.S. for the first time and takes his initial step into Grade 1 company.

3 - Silent Poet – Gary Boulanger/Nicholas Gonzalez – 15-1 : Four-year old colt is a model of consistency with six wins from eleven starts and never finishing worse than second in seven races over the Woodbine turf course. He made it two straight wins for the third time in his career when winning the Play the King Stakes (G2) in a track-record performance last time out. Had some success last year as a sophomore, including winning the Vice Regent Stakes over this course/distance. Eight furlongs is a perfect fit for this local runner who continues to progress from last season and appears to have more to offer. 4 - Synchrony – Flavien Prat/Michael Stidham – 6-1 : After an unplaced finish following a barn switch to begin his four-year old campaign, this horse tried the turf. Following an impressive allowance win, a new career blossomed. He has been ultra-consistent on what is now his preferred surface, and along the way this now six-year old has racked up four Grade 3 stakes wins and a pair of Grade 2 scores. His latest came in the King Edward, a one-length score over this course/distance on the Queen’s Plate undercard. The only two times he has missed a top three placing since the switch to grass racing came in Grade 1 races. However, both were on less than firm footing, which he prefers. He is coming in fresh and if the course conditions are to his liking, he is a strong contender. 5 - Got Stormy – Tyler Gaffalione/Mark Casse – 8-5 : Last month, she became the first filly to win Saratoga’s Fourstardave (G1), and did it in track-record time off just seven days rest. This talented girl has won seven of 15 lifetime starts, and has really raised her game this year as a four-year old since kicking off her campaign with an allowance score at Gulfstream in March. Has to tackle the boys again here, but the males have to be worried about this girl. She has plenty of stakes experience and an impressive win over this Woodbine course. 6 - Awesometank – John Egan/William Haggas – 8-1 : There is no shame in finishing second to the reigning U.S. female turf champion, and that is exactly what this European girl did last time out in the Beverly D (G1), her only start on this side of the Atlantic. Kudos to the four-year old, as that was her first try at the top level. She is a three-time winner at one-mile, so the cut back here is highly favorable. She is no stranger at facing males, as she ran against some classy ones two starts back Royal Ascot. Possesses tactical speed, which should allow her to be in good position throughout. 7 - Raging Bull – Joel Rosario/Chad Brown – 3-1 : He won five of seven starts as a three-year old last season, including winning at all three graded levels. Has been blanked thus far in four starts this year, but he ran into a female ‘buzzsaw’ last outing in the Fourstardave (G1) and that opponent returns in here. On two occasions before that, he chased his stablemate (Bricks and Mortar), who undoubtedly is the best male turf runner in North America, and performed admirably against that one. Was in behind an opponent named Qurbaan in a couple of races earlier in the year and that one came back to win the Bernard Baruch (G2) closing weekend at Saratoga. The eight-furlong distance should suit him nicely. Given the competition he has run against, and taking into consideration his trainer, who seems to win every Grade1 event on grass, this colt is afforded a big chance. 8 - American Guru – Rafael Hernandez/Michael Doyle – 30-1 : Five-year old is the least experienced horse in the group, with six lifetime starts, but he’s won four of them at four different tracks, including a convincing wire-to-wire score here last month at the one-mile distance. Faces a major test, but the ability is there. 9 - Made You Look – Luis Contreras/Chad Brown – 12-1 : A supplemented entry into the race, this horse was a multiple graded stakes winner early in his career, but recorded a top three placing only once in six additional graded stakes since his last win at the graded level in early 2017. He did run over this course a couple of summers ago when fourth in a minor stakes event. Most recently, he took over the lead in the Fourstardave (G1), then fought on before weakening to a fifth-place finish. The top two horses from that event are also here. Going to be difficult to turn the tables here. Always have to respect this one’s trainer, but it does appear from its overall record, this horse needs softer company.

10 - Emmaus – Channing Hill/Conor Murphy – 20-1 : Was a debut winner nearly three years ago in Ireland, where he was bred. When he captured his third lifetime start, it was his only action in 2017 and it came nearly one year after his abbreviated juvenile season wrapped up. Kicked off his sophomore campaign with a minor-stakes win at Leicester, so in essence, this guy won three of his first four starts. However, since then, has been shut out in seven consecutive races, but to his credit, he ran extremely well in both graded stakes efforts over the Woodbine course.

11 - Admiralty Pier – Patrick Husbands/Barbara Minshall – 30-1 : This son of English Channel does not have an impressive record overall, but has shown talent: Won the Display Stakes on synthetic as a juvenile and was third in the Transylvania Stakes (G3) at Keeneland as a sophomore. Last time out in the Play the King (G2), his second start off a layoff, he stalked the pace and was in with a chance through the lane, but couldn’t close the deal. Does not look as though he can get it done in here either. Analysis: 7 * Raging Bull                4 * Synchrony                5 * Got Stormy                3 * Silent Poet # 7 - Raging Bull is a one-run closer who was much further back last race than he had ever been in prior races and had far too much work to do against the winner, Got Stormy. The Chad Brown colt came widest into the lane and still was able to close fastest of all and was beaten less than three lengths. He has faced off and closed strongly against some of the best U.S. turf horses. He makes his second start off a two-month break and looks ready for a big effort. There appears to be enough early pace for him to run at, so he will be motoring rapidly down the stretch. Jockey Joel Rosario, who has been aboard for all five of the colt’s wins, returns after a two-race absence. This one gets my top call. #4 - Synchrony just missed two starts back against a G1 stakes winner who was runner-up in last year’s Arlington Million (G1), so there is no doubting this horse has the class to compete against this group. He is in top form with a pair of bullet workouts in preparation. He has a potent closing kick, so look for him to be finishing fast. Kentucky Derby and Queen’s Plate winning rider, Flavien Prat, adds extra attraction. #5 - Got Stormy was too much for the boys to handle in a freakish performance in the Fourstardave. That win came off seven days rest and earned her a lifetime best speed figure. She is the one to beat based on her last two outings, however, she could be vulnerable to regress following those dominant performances. Wagering: WIN: #7 EX: 4,7/3,4,5,7 TRI: 4,7/3,4,5,7/3,4,5,6,7 Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!

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