Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Shadwell Turf Mile (G1)

Competitive Betting Possibilities in Shadwell Turf 

By: The Turk

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now beginning our twelfth year.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing us the opportunity to opine on what we love, turf racing. 

My readers and friends and family know that I have been sour on horse racing most of this year.  I needed a break.  The bad press, the self inflicted screw ups, the small fields and my perceived lack of general interest from the race tracks and the people that horde over this sport for the average fan had left me questioning my life's choices.  I'd love to tell you I'm over that, but I'm not.  Watching Santa Anita, and most of California racing, flounder in their own missteps still leaves me jaded. 

The one thing I do love in this sport is turf racing and I've never soured on the horses.  I have a real soft sport for the cagey turf runners in their late careers that can still find that late turn of foot that makes you need to remember them, to account for their pace and positioning.  Similar to my Catholic Church which has been screwed up royally by the actions of flawed humans, so has horse racing, but the one thing humans can't screw up for me is the horses themselves and the hard knocking honest efforts.

Let's get after this!

 

That's quite a field, not too much quality but far from lacking and no real clunkers.  The weather looks relatively dry and warm over the next few days and Saturday before getting wetter Sunday.  You'll find turf conditions and scratches and changes here.

Let's start with a video review of last races.

 The Tourist Mile; 31 August 2019; Firm KD.  Next Shares/1, First Premio/9, Real Story/14  

Secretariat G1; 10 August 2019; Firm 1 Mile; AP.  Van Beethoven/2 and Valid Point/4  

Arlington Million G1; 10 August 2019; 1 1/4 Mile Firm; AP.  Bandua/3  

Del Mar Mile  G2; 18 August 2019; Firm   Bowies Hero/5  

Vanderbilt Stakes G1; 27 July 2019; 6f Fast Dirt; SAR  Diamond OOps/7  

Oettingen-Renned G2; 1 September 2019; Good Turf 1 Mile; Baden Germany.  Vintager(GB)  

Prix du Moulin de Longchamp G1; 8 Sept. 2019; 1 Mile Good/Soft; Robin of Navan (FR)/10  

Bernard Baruch Handicap G2; 2 Spet 2019; 1 1/16 Mile Soft. SAR. March to the Arch/11

I never BS my readers:  I don't have a strong opinion on this race.  That doesn't mean much because my handicaps are built with the best information my eyes see and the data that is available, but from a betting perspective, because it's so close, I didn't have strong convictions on the pace and how the race might unfold.  I've won some big strikes when I felt worse about a race and I have lost races I felt invincible about.  Welcome to the most humbling game in town!

All that said, I liked Bandura coming in off the Arlington Million show.  The four year old son of The Factor, has deceptive Timeform figs and is very tactical.  The data doesn't support me too much here but I like what I see and I like the last two efforts.  

Valid Point is a three year old undefeated Scat Daddy trained by Chad Brown.  His future over a route of grass is bright but is his present good enough to take on seasoned older horses?  A grade 1 winner, The Secretariat field wasn't spectacular.  Class alone has me high on him as each start goes by. I'm not going to analyze too much deeper that this next group as I'll only be looking at exactas and I'll be playing this group in with the top two.   

Bowies Hero ships in from California.  He's a solid mile horse, 8 of 14 in the money with 6 wins.   

Van Beethoven is a Canadian bred Scat Daddy 3 YO also, winless in 6 starts in 2019, winless in 4 tries at the distance.  Last three race running lines before Secretariat:  "...1f out w/o threatening, no threat, never a threat...".  That's a problem.  I liked his Secretariat effort and I think he's improving for Trainer Aidan O'Brien.  

Admission Office is just an honest Trainer Brian Lynch special.  Cutting back a 1/16 from a solid Grade 2 Wise Dan. 

Of the foreign invaders I like Vintager (GB) but others will argue Suedois (Fr).   

Vintager is first time lasix and comes in off two wins.  Trainer Appleby does well first time in North America, 60% off small sample size.

I'll be keeping my risk small and my fun high.  Enjoy friends. Exactas only for me.  3/4 OVER 3/4 and X, Y, Z.  X, Y and Z will be from my B's and C++'s and I'll be looking at value on the tote more than anything else on the past performances.

Turk Out!