The Spirit of Birdstone Tries Again
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member
Smarty Jones had a short but remarkable career. He ran nine times, winning eight, finishing second in the 2004 Belmont Stakes.
I was perched in my third deck seat at Belmont Park as I watched him control the field as he attempted to win the Triple Crown. Approaching the quarter pole, it looked like from my vantage point he was going to do it. That is, until Birdstone at 36-1 powered down the stretch, consuming seven lengths as he passed a tiring Smarty Jones, winning by a length.
Emotions were split. The entire crowd, cheering him on, was sullen as Birdstone crossed the finish line. Even Birdstone’s owner, Marylou Whitney, apologized to the crowd for the upset.
The courage of Smarty Jones in the Triple Crown races earned him recognition and the naming of this race for him.
Nine 3-year-old colts are entered to run 8.5 furlongs for a share of the $250,000 purse. The Smarty Jones is the 10th of 11 races on Saturday’s card, with a scheduled post time of 4:25 p.m. CT.
The weather in Hot Springs looks beautiful. Let’s look at the field.
1. Universe (Global Campaign) has finished in the money in his last four races. Jockey Hernandez switches to McPeek’s other entry, Sleepingonfreedom (#9). Coming up in company and should make his presence known in the stretch. Although his post position may cause him trouble.
2. Baytown Dreamer (Mendelssohn) worked a bullet for the race. Should push the pace early, but the distance could be his Waterloo.
3. Boca Beach Club (Omaha Beach) worked a bullet for the race but tries the 8.5 furlongs for the first time. Although he steps up in class, he will be in the mix, hoping for others to make mistakes.
4. Silent Tactic (Tacitus) ran a commendable race at 8.5 furlongs over the Woodbine synthetic course. Should sit off the pace with a move in the stretch. Could be in the money.
5. Rancho Santa Fe (Tapit) should be challenging the lead with jockey Florent Geroux’s 3rd time aboard. Has had two bullet workouts since his last race, which he won. Bred and retained by West Stables is a good sign. Dangerous.
6. Oscar’s Hope (Twirling Candy) another one pushing the early pace. Stretching out to a longer distance, yet he has finished in the first two positions in all his races. Seems focused on the wire. Picks up solid jockey, Santana, for trainer Tom Amoss. Contender.
7. Strategic Risk (Noble Bird) tries lower company and did well at this distance last out winning by nine lengths. Castellano returns, trying to deliver back-to-back wins for Mark Casse. He should be strategically placed with a rush to the finish in the lane. Ironically, his sire was sired by Birdstone, the horse that beat Smarty Jones. Contender.
8. Scar Ship (Midshipman) runs in only state-bred restricted races. Tries open company for the first time. Another vying for the lead early in the race. Stretching out from sprint to 8.5 furlongs may be too big of a challenge. Adds blinkers. Could be an experiment which needs to be watched.
9. Sleepingonfreedom (Independence Hall) closed to win a lesser race over the sloppy course at Churchill Downs. Jockey Hernandez stays with him, giving up the other McPeek horse. Can run on the front or just off the pace. Likely will try to stay in mid-pack early, waiting for a last spurt. Maybe?
Analysis
The early pace outside of Universe may compromise his ability to establish the position he wants –a danger at short odds. Oscar’s Hope should have the lead into the stretch with Boca Beach Club and Strategic Risk hoping to catch him. Here is how I think the race will finish/
7. Strategic Risk (6-1)
6. Oscar’s Hope (8-1)
1. Universe (3-1)
8. Scar Ship (12-1)
Handigamble
$20 to win on Strategic Risk (7) =$20
$40 to place on Strategic Risk (7) =$40
$5 Exacta Box: Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1) = $30
$1 Trifecta Key: Scar Ship (8) with Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1 with Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1) = $6
Good luck but keep the day job.
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