Bid Ado to the Others
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member
Keeneland Racecourse epitomizes racing’s culture. The track
buts against breeding farms, including Calumet Farms, which currently holds the
record for most Blue Grass Stakes wins with six.
The Paddock centers racing, where fans can hang on the
railings as horses prepare for the next race. The building was modernized with
multiple floors from which to view the racetrack and the Paddock. You can tell
it is one of my favorite racetracks to attend, especially on Blue Grass
Weekend.
The Blue Grass Stakes first ran in 1911, with a 10-year
break between 1927 and 1936. It has been carded since then. Between 2007 and
2014, the main track was converted to an all-weather track but returned to its
original dirt surface in 2015 and remains that way.
Nine 3-year-olds are entered this year to run nine furlongs
for a share of the $1,250,000 purse. The race offers two hundred Derby
Qualifying points (100-50-25-15-10). Unfortunately, the weatherman forecasts an
80% change of rain, some of which may fall around post time.
Here is the field:
1. Talkin
(Good Magic) is the only entrant with Grade One experience, finishing second to
Napoleon Solo in the 2025 Champagne Stakes. He worked a bullet for this race
and retains his jockey, Rosario, for the race. He is not the fastest horse in
the race, but shows a strategic running style needed to win.
2. Class
President (Uncle Mo) Scratched.
3. Great
White (Volatile) Comes in from Turfway Park to try graded stakes
for the first time. Should be in mid-pack down the backside, hoping for enough
gas in the tank to slide into the exotics. Working nicely. He has 20 Derby
Qualifying Points but needs to sweeten that number to get in the derby.
4. Regan’s
Honor (Honor A.P.) He generated the highest Beyer figure in last
win in an allowance race at the Fair Grounds. He, too will be trying to get the
lead out of the gate. He adds eight pounds over his last race. With no
Qualifying Points, he must be in the top two finishers for an invitation to the
Derby.
5. Creole
Chrome (Volatile) He is a shipper from Fair Grounds that has been
working at Keeneland. He gets a new jockey, Gaffalione for trainer Joe Sharp.
Distance may be his Waterloo. He should be in the front as long as he can last.
6. Further
Ado (Gun Runner) Keeps his last race jockey, Irad Ortiz, where
he finished ¾ length behind the winner, Puma, who finished a close second to
Commandment in the Florida Derby. With zero Qualifying Points, he needs a first
or second-place finish in the Blue Grass to get in the Derby. Working a bullet suggests
he is ready.
7. Ocelli
(Connect) Scratched.
8. Moonstrocity
(Tiz the Law) is a maiden shipping in from Gulfstream Park. Not likely fast
enough to secure a win in this race. Working a bullet for trainer, Antonucci.
Based on his wet numbers, he may like a wet track, though he has never raced on
one. A scary one on which to take a wagering chance. Might surprise.
9. Ottinho
(Quality Road) Likes to run on the front, but his draw will compromise his
chances in this race. A return to jockey Pratt for trainer Chad Brown may help,
but will it be enough.
Analysis
The pending bad weather makes predicting a winner difficult.
None has shown they can handle the wet going. Two horses have wet numbers over
400: Further Ado (438), and Moonstrocity (440). Of course, if
rain does not materialize, these numbers mean nothing. Further Ado with
Ortiz up coming off the pace should handle a wet or dry track, and Talkin
should be in the mix.
How will they finish?
6. Further Ado (8-5)
4. Reagan’s Honor(5-2)
1. Talkin (10-1)
8. Moonstrocity (30-1)
Handigamble ($100)
$20 win on Further Ado
40 place on Further Ado
$5 Exacta Box: Further Ado (#6),
Reagan’s Honor (#4) and
Talkin (#1)
$10 win on Moonstrocity #8
Good Luck but keep the day job!
