Pegasus World Cup: Youth vs. Experience
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Saturday’s $3 million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational assembles a compelling mix of lightly raced emerging talent and seasoned veterans, anchored by defending champion White Abarrio.
A full field of 12 will go to the post, including Lightning Tones, who drew in from the also-eligible list after Madaket Road scratched. The group will tackle 1 1/8 miles around the Gulfstream Park oval, closing out a blockbuster 13-race program highlighted by six additional graded stakes. Post time for the Pegasus is 5:39 PM ET.
Let’s review the field:
Disco Time (8-5) missed last year’s Derby trail due to injury but returned in strong fashion, posting dominant victories in the St. Louis Derby and the listed Dwyer, once a Grade 1 and later a Grade 2. Granted, the competition he defeated falls short of what he meets here, but the final times were legitimate, particularly his 9 3/4-length Dwyer score in 1:33.86, capped by a sharp 12.75 final furlong while cruising home under a hand ride.
Disco Time stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, though his pedigree, by Not This Time out of multiple stakes winner Disco Chick (Jump Start), suggests the distance won’t be an issue. Adding confidence, his half-brother Bright Spark (Arrogate) won at 1 3/16 miles. Brad Cox tightened the screws with three quick five-furlong breezes at Payson Park. Contender.
British Isles (20-1) a three-time winner from 22 starts, is more familiar with minor awards than trips to the winner’s circle. After spending much of his career on turf, the Richard Baltas trainee pushed Nevada Beach to the wire in the Native Diver (G3), missing by just a half-length, with a solid 12.43 final furlong for 1 1/8 miles. On paper, that effort looks appealing, until you dig deeper.
British Isles has historically struggled away from California. Yes, he won once at Keeneland, but that came during his second consecutive start there. The Justify colt also delivered the best race of his career in the Native Diver, earning a career-best 105 Brisnet figure and a 107 late pace number, ten points higher than any prior effort. He also makes his first start for a new barn. Maybe he surprises, but there are too many red flags. Pass.
Full Serrano (12-1) has been ultra-consistent since arriving in California, finishing first or second in every start and going off at 4-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. That day, he was cooked after chasing Citizen Bull’s blistering opening quarter in 21.74 and a 44.96 half, fading to fifth.
Previously, the John Sadler trainee finished second to Nevada Beach in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood, earning a 102 Brisnet rating and a career-best 106 late pace figure, and narrowly missed in the Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes behind Dirt Mile winner Nysos. He finds softer company here and runs well off a layoff. Contender.
The 6-year-old Banishing (20-1) flashed quality last spring when he missed by a neck to Mindframe in the Churchill Downs (G1). He followed with wins against lesser company and had a legitimate excuse in the Lukas Classic, where he was squeezed so tightly between Disarm and Mystic Dan that Tyler Gaffalione was forced to steady. Surprising there was no inquiry, but that’s racing.
After a poor start in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Banishing rebounded with a runner-up finish in another sprint. Bred to relish added distance and always competitive, he’s not top-tier but merits consideration in longshot exotics.
With rare exceptions, Skippylongstocking (15-1) shows up every time. Still holding his own at age seven, he’s traded punches with many of these rivals and makes his fourth Pegasus appearance for Saffie Joseph Jr. After finally hitting the board last year, a similar exotics result feels likely.
Tappan Street (6-1) has clearly rebounded from the injury that derailed his Triple Crown bid. The Brad Cox trainee owns the distinction of being the only horse to defeat Sovereignty last year. Following a workmanlike effort against optional claimers, he continued to train forwardly at Payson Park and should improve off that return. Contender.
Poster (20-1) hasn’t beaten much but took a step forward in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) against Skippylongstocking. Poster traveled wide while Skippylongstocking enjoyed a ground-saving trip, and despite the effort, the veteran always had him measured. If they went around again, the result likely wouldn’t change. Eoin Harty adds blinkers in search of improvement. Longshot exotics.
Captain Cook (15-1) captured the Withers at 1 1/8 miles against lesser company but has struggled to sustain momentum around two turns otherwise. Second in back-to-back sprints in his first two starts for Todd Pletcher, he showed ability against Patch Adams in the H. Allen Jerkens (G1). Despite a pair of bullet works at Palm Beach Downs, he appears better suited to sprinting. Pass.
Mika (10-1) acquitted himself well in his graded debut when second to Bishop’s Bay in the Cigar Mile. However, he enjoyed an uncontested lead, opened a 2 1/2-length advantage turning for home, and still couldn’t hold off a rival who had previously been a solid Grade 3 type. That scenario won’t repeat here. Pass.
White Abarrio (4-1) returns to defend his crown, though circumstances differ markedly from last year. He prepped with a runner-up finish in the Mr. Prospector (G3) prior to his 2024 Pegasus win but missed scheduled preps this time and was scratched from both the Mr. Prospector and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He hasn’t raced since August. While he fires fresh and clearly loves Gulfstream, post 11 doesn’t help, and a repeat seems unlikely. Pass.
On the positive side, Brotha Keny (30-1) can handle the distance. On the negative side, he hasn’t shown he can beat Grade 3 company. He earns the title of the Pegasus “Why?” horse. Pass.
A Gulfstream mainstay, Lightning Tones (30-1) reliably earns checks and owns two Sunshine Classic Stakes victories. Last year, he closed mildly to finish third in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) and was no match for White Abarrio in the 1 1/16-mile Ghostzapper (G3). Pass.
Analysis
Previous Starts: Most of the last 15 Pegasus winners gained ground and finished in the top three in their prior start, with many making their first start off a layoff. Six exited the Breeders’ Cup Mile or Classic.
Run Style: Speed dominates. Pace pressers within two lengths of the lead have been most effective, while pacesetters accounted for five victories.
Favorites: Trust the chalk. Nine of the last 15 favorites finished in the top three, including three winners in the past five editions, along with one second and one clunker.
Post Position: Inside posts hold a slight edge, particularly post 4, which produced five winners. Posts 1, 8, and 10 yielded two winners each, while rail runners hit the superfecta nine times.
It’s the youngsters who returned successfully after injury vs. the old timers, most of whom have taken turns beating each other over the years.
Disco Time hasn’t beaten much, but he’s looked the part doing it, with improving figures and added distance in his favor. Typically a pacesetter or presser, he also showed the ability to close through trouble in the Lecomte and should either control or stalk the pace.
Tappan Street brings tactical speed and should move forward in his second start off the layoff, settling just off the leaders.
Full Serrano, the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, routinely posts double-digit speed figures. However, the 7-year-old has never raced outside California and hasn’t shown an ability to rate, leaving him as a question mark.
Poster’s worst finish came on Tapeta, yet he still completed the superfecta. A wide trip in the Harlan’s Holiday and reluctance to pass Skippylongstocking suggest the addition of blinkers could help keep him closer early.
For multi-ticket players, Banishing and Skippylongstocking deserve consideration.
Banishing endured a brutal trip in the Lukas Classic and owns tactical speed across multiple tracks, making him an intriguing longshot.
Skippylongstocking always shows up, and while he’s finished behind several rivals in the past, consistency remains his calling card.
That leaves White Abarrio. The fan favorite loves Gulfstream, but missed training time, scratched from his last two races, and doesn’t arrive with the same momentum as last year. At 4-1 morning line, I’m leaving him out of my top picks.
Selections:
7. Tappan Street (4-1)
1. Disco Time (8-5)
3. Full Serrano (12-1)
8. Poster (20-1)
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