Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Hollywood Derby (G1)

 

Test Score targets another Grade 1 in Hollywood Derby

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $300,000 Hollywood Derby anchors a trio of stakes scheduled for Del Mar’s turf festival.

The 1 1/8 mile Grade 1 event is one of the last graded stakes on the lawn solely for 3-year-olds. Five of the nine entrants are East Coast invaders, including Test Score, the only Grade 1 winner in the field.

The Hollywood Derby is featured as race 9 of 11 with a 3:30 M PT post time.

Let’s review the field. 

Maaz (FR)  comes off a runner-up effort in the Twilight Derby behind Test Score. Maaz got an inside trip and didn’t have a smooth trip like Test Score. His only in the money finishes were at Santa Anita, although he closed for fourth in the La Jolla Handicap in August. The Mike McCarthy trainee gets another rail trip and needs the pace to set up for him. Pass.

Friendly Confines set a comfortable one-length pace in the restricted Let it Ride Stakes on October 30 but was edged out by Tempest Volat. The Richard Baltas trainee has a win/lose form but now adds another furlong against tougher competition. Pass.  

Test Score has been solid all year, and his only off-the-board finish was fourth place in the 1 5/16 mile Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs, which was probably a little farther than he liked over the undulating turf. The Graham Motion trainee is undefeated at 1 1/8 miles and is the class of the field. Winner.

After a successful step into stakes competition, winning the Gio Ponti Stakes, Salamis took on graded company in the Bryan Station (G3). Although he was fifth, the Chad Brown trainee finished only two lengths back in a three-way photo with Gakoso for third. That one won the Commonwealth turf (G3)  at Churchill last week. Exotics.

Kokosan is still a maiden but improved in his first two-turn attempt on the lawn after sprinting on dirt. He was on the inside in his last race and was simply outfinished by a half-length. He had tactical speed last year at a mile on the lawn, so this John Sadler trainee is worth a longshot exotics play.

Noble Confessor SCRATCHED.

Copp finally found the winner’s circle against a weak field of turf maidens in his sixth start. Next, he had a troubled trip against allowance-class runners in his last race. Copp hopped at the start, had traffic issues and got stopped, so draw a line through that race. The Mike McCarthy trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings are poor, and he appears to be up against it. Pass.

Tempest Volat likes Del Mar. Since moving to Leonard Powell’s barn in July, Tempest Volat has won or placed in four starts at a mile, including two starts here, as well as a runner-up finish. By Not This Time, Tempest Volat is half to Grade 3 turf winner Delahaye, who was third in her only start beyond 1 1/16 miles. He’s moving up in class and distance, but is worth an exotics look.

Tom’s Magic has faced the best Canadian runners, placing second in the King’s Plate on Polytrack and winning the 1 1/2 mile Breeders’ Stakes on the lawn. Now he’s facing a tougher group. Outside of Canada, Tom’s Magic won a pair of minor stakes and had an excuse in the Transylvania (G3), where he had to steady at the start, and played bumper cars with rivals. Other than the ninth-place finish in the Transylvania (G3), the Michael Stidham trainee hasn’t finished off the board. He has tactical speed and is worth a look for the exotics.

Analysis

Friendly Confines, Tempest Volat and Kokosan are most likely to vie for the early pace.

Test Score stands head and withers above this group, so the real race is for second through fourth.

Tom’s Magic is consistent, has a versatile running style and has won from 1 1/16 to 1 1/2 miles.

Tempest Volat likes Del Mar, and Not This Time’s son could get the distance if he can settle off the pace.

 

3. Test Score (5-2)

9. Tom’s Magic (7-2)

8. Tempest Volat (5-2)

4. Salamis (9-2)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

 

Lone Speed, Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Picks 'N Plays 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Lone Speed, Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Preview

Hello racing fans, even though the Breeders’ Cup is now in the rear-view mirror, there’s still plenty of top-tier racing action happening around the country.

This week, our ThoroFan spotlight shifts to Churchill Downs for the 20th running of the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes, a $300,000 event for three-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.

The field is deep and competitive, featuring several stakes winners and stakes-placed runners. With 11 horses entered, this edition promises plenty of intrigue under the Twin Spires.

Post time is scheduled for 5:25 p.m. E.T. 

WIN CONTENDERS:

Mansetti – Lone speed horse in the field who projects to control the race from the front. Synthetic form typically transfers well to turf, so the surface switch is only a mild concern.

Outrunner – Early/presser with strong tactical speed. Should sit right behind leader and get first run. 

Troubleshooting – Forward-placed presser who finishes with consistency.

EXOTICS USE:

Simulate – Mid-pack closer with a steady late run; ideal underneath type.
Giocoso – Presser who keeps grinding late; fits well in 3rd/4th.
Plensa – Late closer who can clunk up when the pace is honest.
Montador – Early/presser who can dig in for minor awards.
Chapman’s Peak – Forward presser capable of hanging around for a slice.

TOSSES:

California Burrito – Early/presser but outclassed and too slow.
Anegada – Presser lacking competitive figures.
Flying Mohawk – Inconsistent closer without the needed punch.

 

RACE ANALYSIS:

This year’s Commonwealth Turf shapes up with Mansetti as the lone true speed, but he’ll have some company; several horses with early/presser styles will apply steady pressure, creating an honest pace.

Outrunner sits in the prime pressing position, while Troubleshooting tracks just off the first wave, saving ground. This forward pressure sets up opportunities for the midpack and late runners to make their moves turning for home.

Down the stretch, Mansetti’s speed may carry him a long way, Outrunner gets first run and Troubleshooting grinds in, with the closers trying to sweep into the exotics late.

With a field dominated by early pressers, Mansetti’s lone-speed profile gives him a clear tactical advantage, while Outrunner sits perfectly placed to strike. Troubleshooting keeps himself in the race from the start and finishes reliably, and the midpack/later types round out the deep exotics.

The wagering strategy reflects the true pace shape and uses all relevant exotics horses in the 3rd/4th positions where they belong.

 

TOP THREE SELECTIONS:

🥇 WIN – Mansetti
🥈 PLACE – Outrunner
🥉 SHOW – Troubleshooting

WAGERING STRATEGY:

WIN BETS — $30

$20 WIN – Mansetti                                                                

$10 WIN – Outrunner (Win saver; his pressing trip gives him the best chance to turn the tables if Mansetti falters.)

 EXACTAS — $40

$15 EXACTA BOX: Mansetti and Outrunner

$10 EXACTA: Mansetti over Troubleshooting

 TRIFECTA — $1.00 Wheel ($10.00 Total)

1st: Mansetti
2nd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting
3rd: Simulate, Giocoso, Plensa, Montador, Chapman’s Peak

 SUPERFECTA — $.50 Wheel ($15.00) 

1st: Mansetti
2nd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting
3rd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting, Simulate, Giocoso, Plensa, Montador, Chapman’s Peak
4th: Giocoso, Plensa, Montador

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!   

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Pebbles Stakes (G3)

 

  Longshot Appeal in Sunday’s Pebbles Stakes

By: Robert Marks  (X: @theyreinthegate)

The Grade 3 Pebbles on the turf at 1 mile for 3-year-old fillies with a $175,000 purse this Sunday at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, NY, has a small but competitive field of six that should make for good betting opportunities. Carded as the third of nine races, post time is 1:10 PM ET.

 Here is who we like:

Peak Hype (2-1) Trained by Chad Brown with Ricardo Santana Jr., the Jockey, this lightly raced filly has 2 wins out of 4 starts, all as a 3-year-old. She comes off a win at Aqueduct last time out at a mile and 1/16th and a high speed rating. 

Peak Hype is a stalker type and is cutting back in distance for her fifth lifetime start. She will be taking a step up in class, running her first Graded Stake race, but we think she will be up to the challenge. She comes in well rested with 43 days since last outing. Chad Brown is very good at placing his turf horses in the right place, and we think she fits in here.

Paradise City (4-1) trained by Joseph Saffie Jr. with Manny Franco aboard has tons of experience with 11 starts; 4 of those races in Graded Stakes, including last time out on this same track (Aqueduct) at 1 1/8th finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes. In that race, she was first at every call before fading the last 1/8th. 

The cut back to a mile fits her here, and she has the speed figures to compete. Comes off a sharp 3-furlong workout last week. Watch her odds; if she stays at 4.1 or floats higher, run to the windows.

It Ain’t Two (12-1). This Mott Riley-trained filly with Johnny Velazquez on board and owned by Resolute Racing is the most experienced in the field with 19 overall starts, including 13 as a 2-year-old running in Europe. 

This year, she has run 5 of her 6 races at 6 ½ furlongs or less, with only one start at a mile. That was a third-place finish, where she led into the stretch before just getting beaten for the placing. 

There is a key jockey change here, with Johnny Velazquez taking over for Eric Cancel. This filly is fast and an early pace setter, and who better than Johnny V to figure out how to get this filly home at a mile distance. Don’t know if the odds will stay there but love this longshot at 12-1. 

Analysis 

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with good early pace, and your only real stalker being Peak Hype.

We think front-runners It Ain’t Two (12-1) and Correto (6-1) lead the pace with Peak Hype and Paradise City right behind them.

From there it’s a stretch duel where we see It Ain’t Two and Peak Hype together at the wire.

We hope to hit a Trifecta and then an Exacta, boxing our 3 highlighted horses with a win bet on It Ain’t Two.

As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: Peak Hype, Paradise City, It Ain’t Two (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box: Peak Hype, Paradise City, It Ain’t Two (total bet $60)

$10 Win Bet: It Ain’t Two (Total bet: $10)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 River City Stakes (G3)

 Chasing the Crown Sets Sights on River City Glory

By: The Turk

  

 Welcome Friends to the ThoroFan Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.  

"Specialize" is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical Diamond at something like 3% chance to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.  

I'd love to tell you how I thought highly of him and he was my wise guy pick, yada, yada, yada, but no.  

I don't think I would have picked that horse, considering the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I boxed the whole field.  Beware the handicapper and bet constructor who can't admit he was wrong.  I'm going to diagnose both my handicap, pre race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like to try to learn.  The only sign was improving Timeforms, but in that field, at his post draw, I still don't see it.  Anyways, I'll stop grumbling.

Turf racing is over for the year.  Yes I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes, it's done.  When you like turf racing, and you like older horses, this time of the year is slow and slim pickings, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me (they didn't read my Breeders' Cup debacle....shhh, or they won't invite me again) handicap the River City at Churchill Downs, so that is the mission.  

It's not a terrible field.  This time of year you get older horses possibly taking one last run before retirement or 4 YOs who are building on their improvements, with very little high end class, or graded stakes wins, to show for it.  

Conversely, not a lot of video I think worth looking at for this race.  Interestingly, so much of this field is early speed, and not a lot of success in the field at the distance, with only five (5)  1 and  1/8 Mile wins combined.  

Before I go to far, I'd be tone death to not mention that Louisville is having a terrible week following the airplane crash that left at least 13 dead, with 9 or more missing.  Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps, and never lose sight of the fact that as humans, we are all interconnected.

The weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday.  Keep an eye on turf conditions, as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6 PM and two other races, non graded stakes, are on the card.  Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feet, it's max position.  

Let's Get After This:

Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in BOLD

Visualization of Early and Late US Timeform Pace: Three true late speed, a few tactical, albeit slow mid runners and a bunch of very early speed.  

I set Par for this race as 75 Early and 105 Late

Tomlinson Number Analysis with Focus on Distance

8 Nov 2025 CD; The River City Handicap G3;  1 1/8 Miles on Turf

So, What to do with all that?  If I'm being honest, I think I'm burned out on handicapping this year because I'm without a very strong opinion. Everyone can sometimes use a break, and post Breeders' Cup I generally shut it down.  It doesn't help I uked all over myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders' Cup Turf (can you tell I'm gripping?).  

I'm going to value the late speed of Chasing the Crown/6:  Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta.  Has a win 1/2 furlong shorter so I'm not holding the distance against him but its a wildcard he has to overcome.  Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combo, but I like all of it added together. My chalk.

I like Taking Candy/12 more than others, and I have the 5 YO son of Twirling Candy for Lael Stables as a win contender I like his early tactical speed and decent late turn of foot.  Place in G2 two back and a G3 win four back.  

I have a crowded group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta contenders.  

Corruption/8 is an improving 4 YO who has just been building all 2025 after entering the year as a maiden.  Acquitted himself well in 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.

Lagynos/9 doesn't win much, 3 wins in last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame.  $1.7 MM lifetime winner, won the $500K Tapit at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and ran back in Place 9 days later in a grade 3.  Off since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 tries.  Dettori is up, winless in 5 CD starts over past year.  

Epic Ride/2 is a $1.9 MM career winner  at 4 YO and a 2024 Kentucky Derby entrant before going to turf in June of 2025.  1 turf win in 4 tries and today the longest stretch out beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky Derby.  Big early speed.  Quality horse, no doubt.  More questions for me than answers.  

Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, gaudy stats Brad, (24% Graded Stakes Winner, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up)with another improving 4 YO making only his 3rd turf start.  First time at CD, First time at distance on turf, very classy son of Nyquist for Godolphin.  More questions than answers as well.  

Mercante/7 had a very good start to season in 2025, winning 3 of first 5  races before going backward a bit.  Oddly placed as 60-1 shot at Keeneland  in Turf Mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs  from Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1  and followed that up with a G3 with 1/2 furlong shorter at CD.  Not sure what to make of him.

If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (Skipping Mercante) for $2, that's a $60 bet.  Too pricy and lousy risk/reward.  This improves somewhat dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24.  That's my base bet.

If you are playing after the Breeders' Cup, I tip my hat to you, a real horseplayer.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!