Friday, June 20, 2025

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Ohio Derby (G3)

 Digging for Gold in Ohio Derby

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

 

Now that the Triple Crown races are in the rear-view mirror, we can all exhale and sort out the rest of the 3-year-old crop. It is clear that the top three of the division (Sovereignty, Journalism & Baeza) may be superior animals not only in this year but in many others as well. But the good news for the rest of them is that there is plenty of money to be run in different Derbies around the country. 

This weekend, we stop in North Randall, home of Thistledown, to run the Ohio Derby (G3). $500k is on the line and if you have a 3-year-old that can run a bit, that’s plenty of reasons to ship in and see what happens. That’s not to say that some of the locals won’t take a swing as well.

The Ohio Derby is featured as race 12, the last of the day, with a 6:20 PM post time. The track will be fast. 

1. Brereton’s Baytown (30-1)  Would move up on an off-track as his only two wins in 13 starts came in mud or slop. Looks over his head.   TOSS

2. Chunk of Gold (7-2)  Hinted at ability down at the Fair Grounds over the winter, hitting the board in the two Derby preps offered. He earned his right to run the 1st Saturday in May and, for the most part, had a decent trip and finished mid-pack. These waters may be more friendly.   CONTENDER

3. Capo Luca (10-1)  Rides a three-race win streak into this G3 affair while beating up on rivals that would have no chance today. I applaud the connections for taking a shot here, and perhaps he can get a slice. OUTSIDER

4. McAfee (3-1)  Ships in for cagey connections after competing in some graded events in NY. He looks on the improve and has Hall of Famer Johnnie V in the boot. I question the strength of those races on the whole, but I do like his improving pattern. CONTENDER

5. Extradition (20-1)  Was beaten by Capo Luca as the favorite in his last after winning by 5 lengths in the slop. Another local looking to take down the big prize. TOSS

6. Clever Again (9-5)  This $500k American Pharaoh colt was hinting at real ability dominating foes in the Hot Springs Stake at Oaklawn. His 101 Beyer was one of the better performances of any 3yo this spring. That led him to be 5-1 in the Preakness, where he took the worst of the bumper cars in upper stretch (you’ve seen it 100 times). I gave him a big shot in that race but the fact is, he was stopping badly before the incident and was a disappointing non-factor. Jose sees fit to give it another go and Steve wouldn’t put him out there if he didn’t think he could handle it. CONTENDER

7. Bohemian Style (30-1)  A recent claim out of a 12.5k N2L that he didn’t win. NOPE

8. Curvino (12-1)  Big $$ Mike ships in to ride for solid connections. That sounds interesting, but Santa Anita is closed, and Los Al hasn’t started so he’s got nothing going on anyway. One win in 12 starts doesn’t look sexy, but he has hit the board in 7 other tries. OUTSIDER

9. Master Controller (20-1)  Broke his maiden in his last sprinting at Churchill for a high tag with a big jump up in speed figures. He may be a thorn in Clever Again’s side early but I wonder if he can stretch out against better than he’s faced. OUTSIDER

10. Mo Plex (6-1)  Another shipper coming from NY who has been very useful, earning about 10x his auction price. A G3 winner and G1 placed at 2. He won the Bay Shore sprinting in his last and looks to stretch out around 2 turns for the first time. His outside post projects a wide stalking trip. He’ll need to take a step forward again and race dynamics stack against him. OUTSIDER

SUMMARY:  

I think the best animal in this race is Clever Again. His Oaklawn races were very impressive. Frankly, I’m not sure what to make of his Preakness, but I expected a lot more. I think he gets pressed today from Master Controller and Mo Plex right from go. He’ll get no breathers and given his potential short price, he is probably a bet against. 

Chunk of Gold sits a perfect trip and should get 1st run on the leaders. If McAffee takes another step forward, he should be right there, too. As a longshot, I’d take the streaking Capo Luca to hit the board. 

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$50 win Chunk of Gold

$25 exacta Chunk of Gold/McAfee

$10 exacta box Chunk of Gold/McAffee

$5 trifecta straight Chunk of Gold/McAfee/Capo Luca

Good Luck!

 

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