Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Delaware Oaks (G3)

 Delaware Oaks goes to the South

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan handicapper

 

Delaware Park hosts one of their top cards of the meet anchored by The Delaware Oaks (G3) with a purse of $300,000. 

There is a slight chance of rain at post time, but hopefully not enough to affect the outcome. Nine 3-year-old fillies are entered to race 8.5 furlongs for a share of the $300,000 purse. Based on Morning Line Odds it looks like a competitive race with only two look out of it. 

Carded as race 9 of 10, post time is 4:51 PM ET. Lets take a look at the field.

 

1.     Kinzie Queen (McKinzie) Ran well in Grade II last out, finishing third. Alvarado returns for a win in a Grade II contest. The closing running style suggests starting from the one hole is not the best. Yet, it can close as fast as any others. Alvarado must get her clear in the stretch to do her running. Big hurdle.

2.   Late Nite Call (Audible) Ran wire-to-wire last out in non-winners of one race. Steps to graded company. Should try to set the pace, hoping for a piece at the wire against these. Will she scratch?

3.   Complexity Jane (Complexity) Has been on the lead in the last two races and will try to do that again, assuring a quick pace. Working bullets for this race. Stepping up into grade company may be too much to ask.

4.   Margie’s Intention (Honor A.P.) won the Black-eyed Susan (GII) last out at Pimlico. Closed with a rush over a sloppy track. Adding 4 pounds for this race. Looks like her race to lose.

5.   Paris Lily (City of Light) The strongest front runner in the group, with Rosario riding her again. Just missed in the Black-eyed Susan last out by ¾ of a length, skimming the rail on a sloppy track to Margie’s Intention. Gets the benefit of a weight shift this time. May make amends.

6.   Cassiar (City of Light) Paid $400,000 for her in the August 2023 sales. Coming slowly to racing with two wins in three starts. The third place finish came in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (GII). She should be very competitive with these with a burst of speed at the end.

7.   Fondly (Upstart) First two starts of her career suggested she would be a good one. Tried the grade one Kentucky Oaks and was given a lesson by Good Cheer. Should be positioned right to make her move in the stretch. Rested and ready to see if she handles this level. Can Irad position her for the win?

8.   Dyna Soar (Summer Front) Took her six times to break her maiden. Not a good sign. Trying graded company for the first time. Would need to show me more before I go to the window.

9.   Whatintheliteral (Lord Nelson) Has raced in four graded stakes races, including a grade one. Didn’t show if she belonged there and maybe here. Working bullets. Trainer and jockey pairing could make the difference. “Don’t bet on it.”

The Delaware Oaks is a balanced race in terms of form, speed, and class. 

Late Night Call is entered in this race and the Delaware Derby against 10 colts at 20-1 odds. Why? If her conditioners think she is that good and they keep her in the Oaks should we be concerned? Although a front runner, she doesn’t show any standout strengths. If she scratches from the Oaks pace setting will be owned by Paris Lily (5). If she doesn’t scratch, it seems more likely that she may force the early pace. If so, the likely winner could be Magie’s Intention (4). I am assuming she doesn’t scratch.

Here is how I think they will finish:

4. Magie’ Intentions (5-2)

5. Paris Lily (9-2)

6. Cassiar (6-1)

7. Fondly (7-2) 

Handigamble

1.   $20 win and $40 to place on Maggie’s Intention  (#4) = $60.00

2.   $1 Trifecta Box   #4, #5, #6, and #7 = $24.00

3.   $1 Trifecta Key   #4 with #5,#6,#7 and with #5, #6, #7 = $6

4.   $10 to win on #5 = $10