Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Raven Run Stakes (G2)

 A Squeeze Play takes home the Money

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper

Racing in October has a unique flavor. As the month progresses, we rarely hear of a horse prepping for a Breeders’ Cup race.

The Raven Run Stakes (G2) typifies that story. Refreshing because we can know with some certainty that almost every horse in the race is serious about this race and not a Breeders’ Cup race to follow.

2024 marks the first year that the Raven Run is a grade two event, and this year’s field looks like a good one to watch and find an angle for your handicapping. The race is a seven-furlong event for 3-year-old fillies.

Weather predictions are beautiful for racing: temperatures in the high 60s, sunny, and 0% chance of rain. The perfect fan day at the track.

Here is the field for the race.

1. Fibber (Frosted) Last time, she tried a Grade 3, finishing second to My Mane Squeeze, but her speed figure has regressed since. Positive jockey change. Breezed a bullet on October 9th, suggesting she might be ready for a new figure. The competition in this race is a little above her level. Pass.

2. Miuccia (Mitole) Irad Ortiz stayed with her after a third-place finish in the Prioress Stakes (G3). She recorded her best Beyer in that race and could improve. Not this weekend.

3. My Mane Squeeze (Audible) Placed in graded races, winning her last, a Grade 3 from Churchill at this distance. Paired last three races. She will be just off what may be a slow pace ready to move in the stretch. Luis Saez keeps the mount. Main threat to Morning Line favorite.

4. Twirling Queen (Twirling Candy) Worked a bullet for this race off a July win at Saratoga. She won her last four races, three with Luis Saez, but Saez goes to My Mane Squeeze in this race. Why? Twirling Queen is stepping up into graded company for the first time, and tt could be a problem. Distance could be her problem. Could surprise at a price.

5. Emery (More Than Ready) The favorite with a bullseye on the back. She placed in a Grade 1 last time over a muddy track at Saratoga beating My Mane Squeeze, and has tactical speed. The one to beat, unless the “Squeeze” seeks revenge.

6. VV’s Dream (Mitole)Keeps her regular jockey. The two finished second in the 2023 Arcibiades (G1). She has regressed a little since then, but may be returning to form. Need to wait and see.

7. Mink’s Palace (Palace Malice) Jose Ortiz replaces Luis Saez after the last win. Why? She’s stepping up in company. As the main closer in the race, Mink’s Palace will be running in the lane. She might get a lower piece of the exotics.

8. Uno Le (Klimt) just won her maiden a few weeks ago. She had a Solid run but was not fast enough against others in this race. We will see if she is ready for the big time, not this weekend.

9. Riperton (Constitution) Will likely try to set the pace. Her only hope is to catch the others sleeping and steal the race. Not likely.

10. Haulin Ice (Coal Front) Was embarrassed in her first attempt in graded company. No reason to think she will improve enough to be competitive here. Pass.

Analysis

Basic handicapping logic suggests it may be a two-horse race. Emery and My Mane Squeeze stand out.

Saez gives up three horses in the race to ride My Mane Squeeze. The money will be in the exotic plays if these two try to make it a match race and another horse splits them.

Twirling Queen has a lot of upside and is worth consideration at price. Jose Oritz will be driving in the lane, trying for a piece.

Here is how I think they may finish.

3.  My Mane Squeeze (4-1)

4.  Twirling Queen (10-1)

5.  Emery (7-5)

7.  Mink’ Palace (12-1)

Handigamble

$4 Trifecta Box #3,4, #5, #7 =  $96

$4 Win #4 (Twirling Queen) =   $4

 Good Luck but keep the day job!