Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Fayette Stakes (G2)

 The Show Goes On in Fayette Stakes

By: John Caro, S. Florida Thorofan

As we start to exit the Keeneland meet and move toward the 2024 Breeders Cup, the Fayette Stakes (G2) is an annual race for three and ups that are not on the Breeders Cup trail. Most of these runners are experienced graded stakes winners at some point in their careers. Others have validated themselves with black type races.

Let’s review the field.

1. Trademark – Oliver/Concepcion  - Although he has won major stakes at this level and can go a distance his recent form is not encouraging. He is second off a layoff and may improve, but others are more likely. Bottom of a Superfecta if played.

2. Tumbarumba – Lynch/Saez  - This guy is consistently in the money. And maybe too polite this year, with one win and four second-place finishes. Four of his last five were in graded company. Saez has been aboard for four of his last five and is up today. Distance doesn't seem to matter to him and he goes 100+ at the distance. I like him; he may surprise, and I expect he will be ITM for this run. In exotics.

3. Uno Mas Bourbon  - Wilkes/Arrieta – A three-year-old coming off a nice win in the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs and was visually impressive on video going the distance. Although he moves up in class, Arrieta stays aboard, and the horse is a closer, which in a field of late-pace movers may play well for a shot at a piece. At 15-1 he fits nicely in the lower side of exotics.

4. War Campaign  - Sims/Gaffalione  - He comes back off an extended break to finish second by one with Gaffalione up. Gaffalione is on fire at Keeneland, and it fits for a stretch out with this field. I like his in the money chances.

5. Bolzy – Von Hemel/Dettori  - Badly beaten by 8. Hit Show in the sloppy Lukas Classic after coming back from a six-month break. He has had two wins in nine starts lifetime. Not on my list of contenders.

6. Rattle N Roll – McPeek/Hernandez B. - Saw this guy in his barn at age three. He was massive and had an impact in graded stakes with earnings of $1.7M. His form declined after July 2023, and he was rested. Rattle N Roll finished third to Hit Show after a year long break and showed good speed. Mcpeek's go-to jockey, Brian Hernandez, has been on RNR for most of Rattle N Roll’s money winning. This is a war horse and I expect he'll show better for this race. Contender.

7. Heroic Move – Diodoro/Torres  - Another who has lost to Hit Show, placing second by a half length in the West Virginia Governor's Stakes two months back. Heroic Move has been bounced around from Diodoro's barn several times but is back to where he belongs, I think. Not sure what to make of him and not sure this is the right distance for him with one in the money performance in three tries. Pass.

8. Hit Show – Cox/Geroux  - Our favorite in the field. Geroux has been up for the last four and won three of them, two at this distance. He's fast, particularly in the middle of the races. Hit Show likes to be mid-pack and move early to finish with a blast of speed and a steady run to the finish line. That might be his undoing if the pace doesn't match his move. Still, Hit Show is a worthy favorite and must be used on top.

9. Grand Aspen  - Thomas/Ortiz J. – This guy was very consistent under Todd Pletcher until he ran the Pegasus World Cup (G1 )in January and was eased. Then he  moved to Thomas' barn. After a training break in March, Grand Aspen returned in August on a steady training regime. Jonathan Thomas has a reputation for bringing horses back consistently, and he usually trains them for distance races. I trust Grand Aspen will return to form. He has shown good speed and may be the pacesetter for this race. Exotics play.

10. Howling Time – Troiani/Morales  - 1. Trademark finished 1 ¼ lengths ahead of this fella last time out. I think Howling Time is up against it because of the distance and the outside post. Morales can be a pretty aggressive rider when called upon but again, Howling Time’s history doesn’t fit. Pass.

Handigambling Menu  - I think Brisnet has it right on the top of the front page. 2,4,6,7,8 are the players here. 9 and 3 are worthy longshots as well. I'm going to cut the #7 as noted above.

$1 Trifecta  - 8,6 with 2,3,4,6,8,9 with 2,3,4,6,8,9     $40

$1 Exacta Box – 2,3,4,9     $12

$3 Exacta – 6,8 with 2,3,4,9    $24

Longshots – this is a cheap way to play long with 3 and 9 

$10 to win on both ($20) and a $2 Exacta All the above listed with 3 and 9 ($20)