Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

 European Fillies Ready to Reign at the Q.E. II Challenge Cup Stakes

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

The turf racing season for sophomore fillies reaches its zenith on Saturday, October 12, in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland.

The 1 1/8-mile grass race offers a $750,000 purse, boosted from its $600,000 level from the last two years. The race drew a field of ten to contest for such spoils, with a group as classy as any in the division all year long. All ten are stakes winners, and all but two are already graded stakes winners.

The list of winners reads like a who’s who of top turf fillies and mares. Mawj, the 2023 winner, returned to miss by just a nose to older male stablemate Master of the Seas in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) next out. 2022 winner Gina Romantica has won the First Lady (G1) each of the last two years. Other winners include champions Rushing Fall (2018) and Dayatthespa (2012).

Let's review the top picks.

Mawj snapped over a decade of futility on the win end for international shippers in this race, and the chances look strong for overseas raiders this time, too. The one likely to be more heavily bet will be 5. Soprano, who comes out of a Group 1 placing in the Matron at Leopardstown behind the superstar Porta Fortuna. Her class is unassailable, but Soprano has yet to try anything longer than a mile. The picture for that is mixed: she is by Starspangledbanner out of a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Obviously, so close-up in her pedigree reads sprint-oriented, though there is a bit more stamina with the likes of Hawkster further back down her dam line.

From a betting perspective, 10. Candala is the more interesting of the overseas runners. She has not yet faced older, but that isn’t a major concern given that this is a three-year-old fillies’ race. She has come up just short in her last two, though those were Group 2 events going longer than this, 1 ½ and 1 ¼ miles, respectively. Though both of her wins have come at only a mile as well, her pedigree has plenty of upside for finding her place at 1 1/8 miles: she is by Frankel out of Candarliya, a mare who won going as long as 1 ¾ miles, a distance at which she beat males at the Group 2 level. The condition of the turf is a question, as she has only ever run on soft French ground and now she tries firmer American going for the first time. But, she has class, upside, and jockey Florent Geroux, who knows how to win a big race at Keeneland.

Trainer Chad Brown sends a pair out for the Queen Elizabeth II. 6. Oversubscribed, under Irad Ortiz, Jr., is the shorter price on the mroning line. However, 9. Grayosh is a little more interesting. He gets jockey Flavien Prat, who has won this race twice already with Brown, with Shantisara in 2021 and Gina Romantica in 2022. Prat guided Grayosh to a victory in the Lake Placid (G2) at 1 1/16 miles out, outgaming morning-line favorite She Feels Pretty to win by a neck. She showed in that race that, even if the pace is not terribly fast, she can sit close enough to the pace to stay in striking distance. With an honest but not blazing pace likely, that tractability will be a plus. Though she didn’t finish the job the one other time she tried 1 1/8 miles, that was back in May and her pedigree suggests that the extra time to mature means she very much could be ready for the challenge this time around.

3. She Feels Pretty has never run a bad race in six starts, though she has two wins and four narrow misses. That includes head defeats in both the Belmont Oaks (G1) and the Lake Placid (G2) in her last two starts. Perhaps the blinkers will help her focus enough to get the job done, though the fact that both of her wins have come at a flat mile raises the question of whether She Feels Pretty would prefer that distance, and not a longer trip like this, right between the lengths of the Belmont Oaks and the Lake Placid. In short, she makes a lot of sense to run on for her customary share, but the morning-line favorite will be an underlay on the win end.

Selections

10. Candala (9-2)

9. Grayosh (8-1)

5. Soprano (7-2)

Longshot: Sometimes horses just love Keeneland, and 7. Buchu (15-1) will be the right price to bet that she is one of those kinds of horses.

She has popped up for shares of the gimmicks elsewhere: a second in the Regret (G3) over this distance at Churchill, a fourth at this distance at Del Mar in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) last out. But her last two wins have both come in graded stakes over the lawn in Lexington: The Jessamine (G2) last year and the Appalachian (G2) this spring.

Buchu will be hoping for as much pace in front of her as possible, as she does her best running late. But, with Pin Up Betty basically forced to go from the rail and the likes of Waves of Mischief and Pounce with a chance to go for it and keep her honest, Buchu could add one more smart Keeneland effort to her resume.