Handicapper's Corner: 2024 California Crown (G1)

 Crown National in the Crown

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper

Starting in September with Kentucky Downs weekend, race purses are going up faster than real estate prices in Saratoga Springs. One Million dollars seems to be the new benchmark.

This weekend, the California Crown(GI) race, a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, has seven horses entered running for a share of a $1,000,000 purse.

 

Trainer Bob Baffert holds the record for most wins in the race at 8 with a chance for 9. He has three horses entered this year. Trainer Doug O’Neill is shooting for a repeat with Katonah.

Over the years, the race has had for names –1982, the Goodwood Stakes, 2012, The Awesome Again Stakes, and the California Crown Stakes beginning this year.

As one might expect, the weather in southern California for the race will be a beautiful 87 degrees with a 1% chance of rain for this race over the dirt course.

Here is the field for the 2024 California Crown (GI)

1.   Newgate (Into Mischief) Hasn’t run in 6 months after a poor performance in the Dubai World Cup. He needs to regroup and recover his form and speed from 2023. Pass.

2.   Subsanador (Fortify) This Argentine bred showed possibility in is initial starts. Richard Mandella seems to have him moving in the right direction. Jockey Mike Smith rides him a second time after a nice GIII performance at Monmouth Park in August. Could win, but more likely lower in exotic tickets.

3.   National Treasure ( Quality Road) Retains top jockey Flavian Pratt, who has him in the Winner’s Circle 2 of the 5 times he has ridden him. Great speed and pacesetter in this race at this distance and over a dry track. Five of the seven in the race will be charging after him as the wire approaches. The likely winner.

4.   Katonah (Klimt) Gets a hot jockey and should be tracking the two pacesetters waiting to pounce. He is fast enough and gets weight (4 lbs.) from the likely favorite. O’Neill would love a repeat. Maybe.

5.   Muth (Good Magic) One of the two speeds in the race and two 3-year-olds trying older horses in a grade one race for the first time. One of Baffert’s three entrees. May try to push others to set the race up for National Treasure to pull away in the stretch. Possibility, but at a price.

6.   Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) He has been around and proved his worth with lifetime earnings over $12 million. Good for the distance and worked bullet last Friday for this race. Slower than some of the others. Will the real Senor show up? In the exotics.

7.   Indispensable ( Constitution) Out of hot sire and owned in part by a top racing syndicate, West Point Thoroughbred. Took the 3-year-old nine times to break his maiden at mile at Del Mar. Showed potential finishing second to Muth in the shared Belief at Del Mar in July. Another day.

 Analysis

This appears to be a Baffert race to lose. How he instructs his three riders to run the race will make the difference.

National Treasure holds his best chance if the pace is moderate and he can pull ahead in the lane. Baffert’s other speedster, Muth, may push the pace for National Treasure to take over in the lane. Katonah, for O’Neill, has the running style that could disrupt Baffert’s plans. The rest will be in the mix late.

Here is how they will finish:

3. National Treasure (8-5)

4. Katonah (15-1)

2. Subsanador (5-1)

6. Senor Buscador (6-1)

 Handigamble

$50 to win ---3. National Treasure  = $50.00

$20 Exacta Box ---3. National Treasure and 4. Katonah =$40.00

$.50 Trifecta -----3, 4, 2, with 3, 4, 2; $6 with 3, 4, 2,6 =$ 6.00

Good luck but keep the day job!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

 Top Contenders for the Pennsylvania Derby

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate), ThoroFan Handicapper

Not often do you see Grade 1 and Parx Racetrack in the same sentence, but this weekend, the Grade 1 betPARX Pennsylvania Derby for 3-year-olds will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. 

The $1 million race attracted a field of 11, including the Preakness Stakes hero Seize the Grey, Santa Anita Derby (G1) victor Stronghold, and a trio of Grade 3 winners.

 

Carded as race 13 of 14, the Pennsylvania Derby post time is 6:10 PM ET.

Let’s review our top picks.

Here is who we like:

After winning the Preakness Stakes, Seize the Grey (5-1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas, finished seventh in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga and then fourth in the Jim Dandy Stakes on the Same Saratoga Surface. D. Wayne claims he did not like the Saratoga dirt surface so maybe the change in tracks will do the trick. Jaime Torres gets the mount for the fourth straight race. It looks like there is a lot of early speed, so I expect Seize the Grey to sit just off the pace. If he can bounce back and run his Preakness race, he wins this.

Dragoon Guard (9-5), trained by Brad Cox, has done nothing wrong in his short racing career, with four wins and a second out of 5 starts. He has plenty of speed, and I expect Florent Geroux to put him on the lead right away. The problem is, with four or five other speed horses in this race, will Dragoon Guard be there at the end? He enters this race, coming off an impressive start to finish 1st in the West Virginia Derby.

Uncle Heavy (15-1), trained by Robert Reid Jr., has experience running at Parx with four races and two wins. He has not done much lately but won an impressive Withers Stakes in February. The speed in this race might set Uncle Heavy up nicely to complement his nice late kick. Jockey Mychel Sanchez knows the Horse, having ridden him six times, and knows the track. Definitely consider for your exotics.

At 8-1, Unmatched Wisdom is also worth a look. One of the other early speed horses, this late bloomer didn’t make his first start till May but won first time out and followed up with two wins before a rough trip in the Travers Stakes, finishing 7th. Flavien Prat was on him for all three wins and is on board for the Chad Brown-trained colt. He had a nice speed figure in a winning effort over 1 1/8 in the Curlin Stakes. Seems the distance will suit him just fine. 

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be super-fast, with five or so speed horses setting the early pace. We think Seize the Grey will be sitting just off the pace, and Jaime Torres will make his move at the final turn, nipping Unmatched Wisdom and Dragoon Guard. With his late kick, Uncle Heavy can clunk up for third or fourth. As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Handigambling

Bets: $100 budget

$50 win Seize the grey

$2 Trifecta Box: Seize the Grey, Dragoon Guard, Unmatched Wisdom, Uncle Heavy (total bet $48)

$2 place: Uncle Heavy

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Woobine Mile (G1)

 Rockin' the Woodbine Mile

By: Nick Costa,

Hello again folks, we are in mid-September and the road to the 2024 Breeders’ Cup World Championships is picking up momentum. The focus for this upcoming weekend spotlights Woodbine in Toronto, which will host three Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” races on Saturday.

The marquee event, and the race we will cover here is the $1 million Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, which offers the winner a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  Two other events, the $500,000 Summer Stakes and the $500,000 Natalma Stakes offer “Win and You’re In’ offer berths to the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf, respectively. The 41^st annual Breeders’ Cup will be held this year on November 1^st and November 2^nd at Del Mar Racetrack.

A field of eight enter the gate for the Mile to do battle on the famed E.P. Taylor turf course. Post time for the Woodbine Mile is set for 6:16 p.m.

Morning line favorite, NAVAL POWER, gives owner Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby a good chance to win their third consecutive Woodbine Mile, while Mark Casse, a 16-time Sovereign Award winner as Canada’s outstanding trainer and a two-time winner of the Mile, will be well represented in the race with three entries, including FILO Di ARIANNA, recent winner of the G2 King Edward Stakes over this turf course.

ANALYSIS:

2 - NAVAL POWER, a winner of 6 of 9 races, last raced on Kentucky Derby Day when second, beaten a head in the G1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Prior to that, he was defeated by stablemate, Master of the Seas, winner of the Woodbine Mile last year, on a yielding turf course at Keeneland in the G1 Makers Mark. His last two efforts make him the one to beat.

4 - BIG ROCK makes his North American debut and adds a European touch to the Mile. Last year, after three consecutive runner-up finishes in Group 1 events, he won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes, the richest mile race in Europe at Royal Ascot over soft ground. His form this season has been below its best, but this lineup isn’t nowhere as strong as the competition he has faced over the last year. Gets equipped with blinkers which should help keep him better focused, which he’s had trouble doing this season. He cannot be counted out.

5 - FILO DI ARIANNA is a multiple G2 winner who enters the mile on a two-race winning streak, with his latest score in the King Edward Stakes. He’s been in the money in 3 of 4 starts at the distance. His 2 for 2 resume over this turf course must be respected, as well as his four stakes wins at Woodbine.

8 - MY BOY PRINCE looked like he was going to win the King’s Plate until he was passed late by the winner. The lone 3-year-old in the field is in excellent form. He had a win over this turf course last year and was also third in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita. He should be forwardly placed, and his good early speed should keep him in the mix.

WAGER:

Our mythical $100 ThoroFan dollars will be bet in the following ways.

$25 Win - Big Rock

$15 Exacta Box – Big Rock-Naval Power

$10 Exactas – Big Rock & Naval Power over Filo Di Arianna

$1 Trifecta Box – Big Rock – Naval Power – Filo Di Arianna – My Boy Prince – ($24)

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup (G2)

 Who will go the distance in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup?

By: The Turk, ThoroFan Handicapper

Kentucky Downs from above

 Welcome to The Turk Blog, started in 2008 and now with over 725 postings.  The Turk Blog specializes in turf racing and exacta bet construction.  I appreciate The Thorofan, and their Handicappers Corner, for allowing me an opportunity to share my writing with you today.  

As a fan of turf racing, and with the death of Arlington International, Kentucky Downs became my favorite track and boutique meet of the year.  I wish I could say I was good at either handicapping the races there, or building better constructions, but that is part of the charm at Kentucky Downs, the races are hard to predict, its difficult to know which horses will take to the quirky track, and the sample sizes of horses running on the track itself are very small.  

What is it about Kentucky Downs? It is a unique racetrack located in Franklin, Kentucky, near the Tennessee border. Known for its European-style turf course, the track stands out in the American horse racing landscape due to its undulating, irregularly shaped layout, which differs from the traditional oval tracks seen across the United States. Founded in 1990, Kentucky Downs is built on the historic site of the old Dueling Grounds, adding a layer of history to its modern-day horse racing activities.

The track hosts some of the richest turf races in North America, despite offering a short annual meet. Its premier event and the focus of today, The Kentucky Turf Cup G2, attracts top-quality horses and trainers.  Kentucky Downs has gained a reputation for offering large purses like this race $2.0 MM, largely due to its successful historical horse racing (HHR) machines, which operate year-round. These gaming machines have boosted the track's revenue, allowing it to increase race day payouts and enhance its appeal to the racing community.

Kentucky Downs emphasis on both historic tradition and modern gaming has helped the venue carve out a special niche in the racing industry.

So what were the The Dueling Grounds of Kentucky? Located near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, the dueling grounds hold a unique place in American history. Known as the "Spanish Main," this area served as a notorious site for duels in the 19th century. Due to the strict laws against dueling, this location, just outside state jurisdiction, became a favored spot for those seeking to resolve personal disputes through "honorable combat."

The Dueling Grounds gained infamy for high-profile duels, particularly during the early 1800s, including the fatal duel in 1826 between U.S. Congressman John Randolph and Henry Clay, a prominent American statesman and future presidential candidate. Though the duel ended without bloodshed, it underscored the site’s role in shaping political and personal conflicts of the time. Duels,  dangerous and deadly, were also a socially accepted method for defending one’s honor in certain circles. By the mid-19th century, dueling fell out of favor, and the Dueling Grounds eventually faded into history.

In 2014, National Geographic found evidence of spent casings and lead bullet fragments, confirming the exact location of the duels. To this day, Kentucky is the only state requiring office holders to swear to uphold that they have never dueled or challenged anyone to a duel.  

Enough Turk, get on with it! 

The weather should be dry and the track firm.  The track website is pretty barebones but you can find scratches and changes and track surface info here.  

$2.0 MM Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Grade 2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf

Just a few relevant videos, but at 1 1/2 miles, don't put too much into these.  

 4 August 2024 EIP; Turf Cup Preview $299K; 1 1/4 Miles firm turf.  Highway Robber/1; King Curlin/6; Anglophile/9

11 August 2024 CNL; Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Integration/2; Sugoi/5

20 July 2024 MTH; United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on Firm Turf.  Get Smokin/4; Tawny Port/7; Grand Sonata/10

So what should you do with all this?  First, check for scratches and changes.  There were none when I wrote this on Thursday evening.  Next, hold your bets and watch that tote board leading up to post time.  Finally, have fun.  It's Kentucky Downs, anything can happen.  If I choose to bet I will look at an exacta with Integration/2 above Get Smokin/4, Tawny Point/7, Anglophile/9, Sugoi/5 and Highway Robber/1, a $10 Bet and alternatively, I'd drop Integration and $2 box 4-7-9-5-1 for $40.  Both are pricey and big gambles but the handle will be big and its worth stretching.  

Have fun,  Turk Out!