They will be flying in the Bed o'Roses Stakes
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicaper
The event is scheduled as Race 10 with a 5:13 PM ET post time at Aqueduct Racecourse as part of the Belmont at Aqueduct card.
Ten older fillies and mares have entered to race the 7 furlongs for a share of the $200,000 purse.
Let's look at the field.
1. Apple Picker (Connect) enters after
winning a 6-furlong race at Pimlico over a muddy track. She will need early
pace to be competitive, as she does most of her running in the stretch. Gets
Hall of Fame jockey Johnny Velazquez, which can't hurt. Could be in the
money.
2. Big Pond (Mr. Big) Keeps jockey Junior Alvarado after a second-place finish in the Vagrancy Stakes on this
Aqueduct track when the track was labeled with a closing bias. She has 3 grade
one efforts finishing second in one. In the exotics?
3. Accede (Into Mischief) Home bred by
Juddmonte Farms to a $500,000 sire. Perhaps the class of the field. She has a
tactical running style that will get her a number of calls. Keeps Irad Ortiz
for trainer Chad Brown. Could be a surprise, unlikely in the Winner's Circle
this time.
4. Morning Matcha (Central Banker) She has
been in the money 5 times out of 8 tries over the Aqueduct surface –Horse for
Course? Has a powerful closing time but does not show the form likely
needed to overtake this field.
5. Just Katherine (Justify) may like it
longer to show her stuff. Owns a win at Aqueduct. Has raced against this level
before. Off for over 3 months and needs to improve her form to be
competitive here.
6. Flying Connection (Nyquist) Finished 2nd
and 3rd in her last two which were grade one races. She has a dual
running style and can sit off the pace and close or push the pace. Her
versatility gives her an advantage in this race. Possible winner.
7. Hot Fudge (Liam's Map) Is another likely closer in a field packed with that running style. Is trying a grade two race for the first time. Bought for $235,000. Would like to see how she handles the class before recommending her. Watch and wait.
8. Shidabhuti (Practical Joke) She checks
a lot of the boxes. Shows form improvement over the last two races. She is
usually strategically placed with a quick closing time. Retains jockey, Dylan
Davis, whose father is tied with Irad Ortiz with three wins in this race. Irad
has the mount on Chad Brown's horse to break tie. Dylan is the son of former
jockey Robbie Davis, who also has three wins in this race. It might be a little
motivation for Dylan to make the race a family affair with the second Brown
entry. Maybe.
9. Leave No Trace (Outwork) She is dropping
down in company for trainer Serpe, who retains jockey Lezcano. Is likely to set
the pace in the 7-furlong event. Current form suggestions she is ready to run
following a win in the Vagrancy Stakes at Aqueduct in May, defeating Big Pond
(#1), Hot Fudge (#7), and Beguine (#10). Should be in the exotics.
10. Beguine (Gun Runner) She has pedigree in her corner as the daughter of Gun Runner. Ran well in the Fantasy Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn Park as a 3-year-old. She has not regained potency in her 5-year-old year that she had in previous years. Will likely try to join the pace with Leave No Trace backing off in the stretch. Needs one.
Analysis
This should prove to be an interesting race with little front-end speed and strong cohort of closers.
The two speedsters come from far outside and will use plenty of energy getting to the front, although it looks like Leave No Trace will win that battle.
Shidabhuti with Davis up and Ortiz on Accede will be tactically placed to make the first move on the leaders. Closing strongly should be Flying Connection with Santana up as the wire nears.
Here is how I think they will finish.
6. Flying Connection (3-1)
8. Shidabhuti (6-1)
9. Leave No Trace (12-1)
3. Accede (6-1)
Handigamble Play
$2 Trifecta Box 3,6,8 and 9 $48
$50 To Win on #6 $50
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