Catching Freedom seeks another graded win in Ohio Derby
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Ohio's first Derby was run in 1876 and won by Bombay going a mile and a half. The race is considerably shorter today at a mile and an eighth. Weather is forecast for 20% chance of showers, and very hot for the region. Expect a dry, fast track.
Let’s take a look at the field.
There is no question about the class of this race: #8 Catching Freedom trained by Brad Cox. Cox has won this Derby twice in the past five years. Luis Saez gets the mount. The class relief is enough to judge him the deserving favorite. With Saez up, I expect Catching Freedom will be closer to the pace. Win contender.
#9 Batten Down is an interesting choice coming from the Mott barn with his go-to jockey Junior Alvarado up. Last seen winning his 120k maiden by 8.5 lengths going a mile and a quarter. Prior finishes were close, half a length and a neck. Real potential at 8-1 ML odds. Excellent longshot and exacta play.
#2 Gould's Gold trained by Ken McPeek and ridden by Brian Hernandez (the Kentucky Derby dream team), was last seen losing by a nose in the muddy Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness day. Steadily improving gray colt shares the same sire as Mystik Dan: Goldencents. I expect to see him close up in the pace but he has shown he can close from off the pace as well. ITM contender.
#4 Copper Tax is 7 for 10 lifetime and was last seen winning the Tesio at Laurel with good numbers throughout his career when he's racing in Delaware. His visits to Tampa for the Sam Davis and Aqueduct for the Remsen were nowhere near his best. It gives me pause, but he's been rested and been stretched out with two back-to-back 6 furlong works by his 30% winning trainer, Gray Capuano. Torrealba retains the ride and has taken him to victory in his last two outings as a black type runner. Can't leave him out.
Then there are others who have shown they can win but don't thrill me….
#1 Frizzante is in the money a lot with lesser company, and speed figures are slow. Didn't break his maiden until race 7.
#3 Charleston is still a maiden, but he gets the services of local top jockey Luis Rivera, who is winning at 25% and ITM 56%; Rivera also wins routes here 27% of the time and is 65% ITM. The colt has been in a new barn hosted by Michael Rone since February, shooting bullets in training, and will go with blinkers on to the race. Trainer/Jockey are 3 for 3 in the last 14 days. If you are a true longshot player this is your pick at 30-1 ML. Don't go crazy with your money but there is only upside for this guy. Watch the tote board!
#5 Uncle Heavy, man, I loved him early in the season, but he really seems to have lost his form since his victory in the Withers Stakes last fall. It wasn't that he got in big trouble in the Preakness or the Wood (nobody should go that wide that often to win); he just wasn't motivated to go. Bottom of the exotics.
#6 Deposition just doesn't have the form to make this trip on 17 day rest. Toss
#7 Who's the King is owned by Kenneth Ramsey and trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. I have the utmost respect for both but Not This Time.
#10 Mugatu has not won a race in his last 8 races or ITM in the last four. Toss
Analysis
From a horse racing fan perspective, I want to see Catching Freedom win and move on to the late summer Travers. Had him in with Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone for the Derby and was surprised he wasn't nose-to-nose with all of them. From a betting perspective, I'm going to Key Batten Down. He has good upside when he finishes first or second.
Handigambling menu with $100 Bet them like you see them
$1.50 Trifecta 9 with 2,4,8 with 2,3,4,5,8 $18
$2.50 Trifecta 2,4,8 with 9 with 2,3,4,5,8 $30
$5 Exacta 2,3,4,5,8 with 9 $25
$3 Exacta 9 with 2,3,4,5,8 $15
$3 Exacta Box 8 & 9 $6
And if you decide to bet the 3 use the last $6 - $2 across the board.
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