Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Royal Heroine Stakes (G3)

 4 Fillies to watch in the Royal Heroine Stakes

By: Robert Marks, Twitter/X: (@theyreinthegate)

As we anticipate the Kentucky Derby to be run one week from this Saturday, fillies, and mares will take center stage at Santa Anita Park this Saturday, 4/27/24, in the Grade 3 $100,000 Royal Heroine stakes. This one-mile turf event boasts a rich history, and this year’s event is wide open. 

 

 

 

Here is a look at the 9-horse field.

 

Here are the horses we will be focusing on:

Stay and Scam (5-2) for Trainer Doug O’Neill will likely go off as the favorite. This 4-year-old filly will be your likely pacesetter. A sprinter type, she has only gone two turns once, and this is a 2-turn race. In her last race, the two-turn Wilshire stakes, she finished 2nd, despite having a 2 ½ lead going down the stretch before being caught by the winner-Nadette. Prior to that one-mile race, she won 5 of 10 spring races. Mario Gutierrez is the Jockey.  O’Neill is a master at improving his horses, and we believe this 4-year-old and Gutierrez will improve over the last race now that she has a one-mile race under her belt.

Justique (10-1) will be piloted by Hall of Famer Jockey Mike Smith. Trained by John Shirreffs, this 4-year-old Filly will be a very tempting pick if she remains anywhere near her 10-1 morning line odds. She is battle-tested with seven graded stakes races out of her 12 starts. We love that foundation, and having Mike Smith on top to pilot her is always a plus. out of 3 starts, winning all three at Gulfstream Park, including the Holy Bull Stakes. She has impressive speed figures, topping out over 100 twice as Santa Anita in the Lady of Shamrock Stakes and Autumn Miss Stakes. She is coming off a nice workout. We think her last race, a poor performance in the Buena Vista Stakes, is a throw out and will trust Smith to be finishing late with Justique. 

Uncorked (3-1) is the Wildcard here. This 5-year-old mare has not raced since November of last year at Aqueduct, finishing 3rd in the Forever Young Stakes. Phil D’Amato took over as Trainer since that race and has had to have the Mare resting in his barn for the last five months as this Australian Bred horse was sick. Now she’s rested, and D’Amato seems confident. She also gets Frankie Dettori on board for the 1st time. Always hard to figure out how a horse will perform coming off a long layoff, but she has had seven timed workouts in the last two months, all with good results. We will watch the tote board and hope her odds float a bit upward. 

Looking at others you might want to look at Miss Lizzy (6-1), the other Doug O’Neill Trainee in this field. She was 2nd last time out in the Mizdirection Stakes at Santa Anita Stakes. She will be stretching out to a mile and is sired by Classic Empire, father of many dirt and sprint winners. Worth putting into your Trifecta and Superfecta box selections.

Analysis & Handigambling

If you believe that Stay and Scam can figure out how to pace herself a bit better, she is your winner. If not, the horse is a toss. For us, we will believe in Stay and Scan and think Her Jock, Guitierrez puts her in position for a win We will go with a straight win bet and hope we hit the Tri with Justique at 10-1 or higher in the mix.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Stay and Scam

$2Trifecta Box: Stay and Scam, Justique, Uncorked (total bet $48)

$2 place: Justique

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Who will bloom in the Apple Blossom Handicap?

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome back to Oaklawn Park to see older fillies and mares work their magic. Forecast is excellent, with a touch of early summer temperatures. Post time for race 11 is 5:46 PM CT.

Morning Line Favorites

#4 Adare Manor – Baffert/Hernandez J.J. – Winner of $1m in earnings with five wins and two seconds against Grade I or II company in eight attempts. She took time off after losing the BC Distaff last fall, then returned to finish second in Beholder Mile. Can't deny her favoritism in this one. Carries the high weight and has never been over the track. Not my top pick.

#3 Wet Paint – Cox/Prat - Hasn't been seen since a poor showing in the BC Distaff last fall. Apparently loves Oaklawn as she won three out of three against graded company last year at 3. $1.19m winner. The works are great, and I like her coming back after her hard 3-year-old campaign. Like her as a winner here.

#7 Honor D Lady – Joseph/Castellano – Coming off a win in the Royal Delta G3 at Gulfstream from the front after the second call. Gulfstream being what it is, it's hard to beat a strong front running style. That doesn't necessarily work at Oaklawn. She also faces the front end with a couple others here. Like her underneath.

 

The Field

#2 Taxed – Morse/Torres – lost to Wet Paint here three out of three, skipped the Kentucky Oaks, and won the Blackeyed Susan. After that, she declined in form and took a break from September until her return to Oaklawn, winning an optional claiming race and going 6 furlongs here in mid-March. She has never won at this distance. She doesn't give me the confidence she will be in the top money. Superfecta?

#6 Misty Veil – Maker/Vasquez  - She is a consistent ITM lifetime at Oaklawn and four-for-four since December. Last seen losing by a neck in the Azeri G2 on a tracking trip. She's 75% at the distance and 90% at Oaklawn. She'll carry 5 pounds less than top weight today. I'll play her underneath at 12-1 or better.

#8 Bellamor – Asmussen/Asmussen  - Came in third behind Misty Veil in the Azeri after drifting out and before that, won the Houston Lady Classic G3 after changing to Asmussen's barn. That was her first run at Oaklawn, but she has never been out of the money at the distance. Another logical to play underneath at 12-1.

#9 Shotgun Hottie – DeVaux/Lopez – This is where we see speed from the outside post. Lopez has been on this lady twice, and both were wins from or near the front. I expect Paco to do what Paco does and run the feet off others for the trip. She has been training here, and she has some fast times in her preps. She might be a win contender. Gotta love the name with Paco riding; it makes sense.

 

Longshots

#1 Feel Like a Girl – Pomier/Manrrique  - Don't know the trainer or jockey, but what I can tell you is the 5-year-old mare has $1.3m in the bank on an average of 9 races per year (mostly LS races), and when Manrrique was up last he missed by a neck to Ballamore in the Houston Lady Classic. She is one for two here, is 6 for 8 ITM at the distance, and 90% ITM for the last 10 races. These 20-1 ML odds horses with that kind of race record get overlooked. It says something about her mental ability to compete. At those odds, she has to be played with others. She'll carry the featherweight of the group. Top longshot!

#5 Flying Connection – Fincher/Santana  - This Nyquist filly can be a speedball, and from that post might be a factor for Honor D Lady and Shotgun Hottie. The issue for me is Oaklawn doesn't play well with frontrunners most of the time. She is a multiple-listed stakes winner and loves the distance where she is 3 for three but in her last attempts against graded stakes winners, she did not enjoy the company. If we see a battle up front, I don't think she's stay.

 

Handigambling  - I believe pace will deliver the outcome of this race. The frontrunners will try to wage a battle, and a mid-pack tracker will close in the long stretch to win. Let's keep today's wager around $60.

$1 Trifecta – 3 with 1,6,9 with All - $21

$.50 Trifecta – 1,6,9 with 3 with All - $10.50

$1 Exacta – All with 1 - $8

$1 Exacta – 1 with All -  $8

$16 to Show on 1