Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Beholder Mile (G1)

 Longshot Plays in the Beholder Mile

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Nine fillies and mares line up Saturday for the $300,000 Beholder Mile, a nice G1 going a flat mile at “The Great Race Place” Santa Anita.  It’s good to see a full field out there these days, which is helped by HOF trainer Todd Pletcher sending out a pair in Green Up for Team Valor and Repole Stable’s Interstatedaydream. 

There are a few mainstays in this division entered.  Adare Manor from Baffert, who basically owned these races last year, beating up on Dessert Dawn for Phil D’Amato as well as the John Sadler trained Kirstenbosch.  Both will take their shot again trying to upend Manor’s dominance – she did win 4 graded races in a row from April to October.  Richard Mandella has an up-and-coming newly turned 4-year-old in Coffee in Bed who may have a late say.   

Grade 1, $300,000, 1 Mile 4YO & Up. Fillies & Mares

Race 8, 4:11 PM, PT Post Time

Expected Track Conditions:  Fast  

Here's the field:

 

 

1.  Coffee in Bed (R. Mandella/M. Smith/15-1)  Dick Mandella is having a banner year clicking at 34% here at Santa Anita.  In her 1^st start of ’24 this newly turned 4yo ran a sneaky good 2^nd to Desert Dawn (entered today).  She was closing late on that foe who got the jump on her.  I feel this one has a ton of upside for a Hall of Fame conditioner and rider.  She will be rolling late into a decent pace. LONGSHOT CHANCE

2.  Adare Manor (B. Baffert/JJ Hernandez/5-2)  What can you say?  She reeled off four graded wins in this division last year beating a few foes she faces today.  Her Breeder’s Cup Distaff 7^th place finish was no disgrace.  She chased a fast pace and was only beat 3 lengths.  Any effort that replicates her last year’s form wins this.  She is the favorite for good reason.  WIN CONTENDER

3.  Green Up (T. Pletcher/JR Velazquez/3-1)  It’s very interesting that Todd sends this gal to the left coast for a Grade 1 try.  And her hall of fame jockey tags along for the ride to boot.  One would think she could run at Gulfstream and then Keeneland in some graded races going long with much less travel, no?  It is a definite vote of confidence she is here.  She won some listed stakes back east like a good thing although her two graded tries left some things to be desired.  She’s been working well, beating on stablemate Interstatedaydream, and seems up for the task.  WIN CONTENDER

4.  Desert Dawn (P. D’Amato/A. Fresu/8-1)  This 5yo mare has won just shy of $1million, mostly running 2^nd and 3^rd in graded events to Adare Manor.  She seems to show up and must be fun to own.  USE UNDERNEATH

5.  Interstatedaydream (T. Pletcher/ L. Dettori/4-1)  Mike Repole went for $ 1.4 million for this mare at the Keeneland November sale.  She’s a G2 winner and an overall solid performer.  Perhaps another G1 placing further enhances her value (3^rd in G1 Ashland), but she seems up against it here.  TOSS

6.  Sweet Azteca (M. McCarthy/F. Prat/3-1)  This speedy filly is jumping right into the deep end for her first Grade 1 try.  She’s also going two turns for the 1^st time as well.  She looks fast but how far she can carry it and against this type of competition remains to be seen.  At the 3-1 ML, I will let her prove it to me.  TOSS

7.  Kirstenbosch (J. Sadler/H. Berrios/15-1)  I find this mare to be very interesting.  Although she has chased Adare Manor many times with no avail, she seems like she’s not had a proper set up for her late run.  I feel there is more pace today than she had last year.  Also, she has sprinted in her last four races which should have her much closer today.  She ran a good 5^th in the Filly & Mare Sprint after missing the break.  She is also 2^nd time off a layoff for a cagey outfit.  LONGSHOT CHANCE

8.  Turnerloose (P D’Amato/E. Maldonado/30-1)  She has raced mostly on turf for her career although she owns a G2 score on dirt as a 3yo.  Looks like D’Amato is taking a shot here.  TOSS

9.  Windo Shopping (R. Madella/K. Kimura/20-1) Breaking from the outside in a G1 with slower speed figures puts this $700k purchase at a disadvantage.  She did win the G2 Summer Oaks here last year.  She will need to improve immensely to contend.  TOSS

SUMMARY

One could easily say that this race is Adare Manor’s to lose.  She has dominated the division on the west coast and is facing many foes she has already dusted.  Of the 2 East Coast invaders, Green Up looks the most formidable, but she in no way has the resume that Adare has.  On paper, all others would need to improve. 

But Adare Manor is not getting any easy lead here.  In fact, she may come around 3^rd behind Sweet Azteca and Geen Up.  She has won stalking in the past, so it isn’t out of the question however, she has loft off the layoff a few times.  Today, with the pace set up and the layoff, it is time to play against. 

I will be looking for the strong late runners to close into a potential sharp pace.  If I am right, I could get paid.  I will be looking for Kistenbosch to finally get a good set up and perhaps Coffee in Bed to show up late at a price.

THE BET:

Based on $100 wagered:

$34 win 7

$8 exacta key box 7 with 1,2,3 for $48 total

$3 exacta key box 1 with 2,3,7 for $18 total

 

Good Luck!