Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Louisiana Derby: Will pace make the race?

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers Off

The Fair Grounds spur of the Kentucky Derby trail draws to a close with the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 23. The race covers 1 3/16 miles, the longest of any Kentucky Derby points race in the United States, and the rewards are big: a $1 million purse, and 100-50-25-15-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points for the top five finishers. This means a guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby for the winner, a likely slot for the second-place finisher, and a nudge up the standings for the next three horses across the wire.

The Louisiana Derby is the last of four points races during the Fair Grounds meet. The Gun Runner, the newest race in the series, began it in December. It was followed by the two traditional local lead-ins for the race, the Lecomte (G3) in January and the Risen Star (G2) in February. The star of this sequence has been Track Phantom, who won the Gun Runner and the Lecomte before falling just short in the Risen Star. Track Phantom leads the Louisiana Derby, while Sierra Leone does not return to New Orleans this weekend.

Only two Louisiana Derby winners have won the Kentucky Derby: Louisiana legend Black Gold in 1924 and Lil E. Tee in 1992. More recently, Louisiana Derby's fourth-place finisher Country House (2019), took the roses with him, and sixth place Mandaloun (2021) was also placed first in the Kentucky Derby. Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter (2022) ran second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as the favorite and went on to win the Travers (G1) and champion 3-year-old honors.

Saturday, March 23 - Fair Grounds

Race 12: Louisiana Derby (G2), three-year-olds, one and three sixteenths miles on the dirt, post time 5:42pm CST

The pace setup for the Louisiana Derby is an interesting one. There isn’t a complete lack of speed, but there is less than one might expect for a 12-horse field, as well.

Track Phantom has a good chance of proving the speed of the speed and has shown some ability to battle early and go on, though he is mired on the far outside. That could lead to some serious ground loss, and that concern is exacerbated by the fact that he finished the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star – where he also drew wide – as if he still has some distance questions to answer in this 1 3/16-mile test. It would be no surprise to see this Steve Asmussen-Joel Rosario production run well, but the price will be too short to love him on top.

As long as Antiquarian can avoid trip trouble early, given his relative inside draw, Track Phantom’s parking-lot post is Antiquarian’s gain. He did not lead at the first call in either of his races, but he showed enough pace to be very close to the leader. He may be fast enough to wrest the lead outright under regular rider John Velazquez, and even if someone else guns it, he should be involved from start to finish. Experience is the question as he has only faced maidens, but even that resume reveals some class. On debut, he was narrowly caught by legitimate Florida Derby (G1) prospect Conquest Warrior. Next out, he won by a length over Cornishman, who has already returned to win at the maiden special weight level. Trainer Todd Pletcher already has five wins in the Louisiana Derby, and Antiquarian is in the running to become his sixth at a nice price.

However, top honors go to Honor Marie. Though the Whit Beckman trainee finished only fifth in the Risen Star and never looked a winner, he was making up some ground late. It was reminiscent of his other sloppy-track start, a well-beaten allowance-level second at Churchill last year. His better efforts have come over a dry track, something he is likely to get on Saturday. Even though he is an off-pace type in a race where a fiery front end will not happen, his Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) win tells the tale. That day, he made an early run into a modest pace, putting himself in contention in time to win by open lengths. If sharp local rider Ben Curtis can work that kind of trip with him, it has every right to work again. Furthermore, his pedigree suggests he will love every step of the distance and perhaps even more.

Selections:

#7 Honor Marie (8-1)

#3 Antiquarian (12-1)

#12 Track Phantom (3-1)

Longshot: #9 Real Men Violin (20-1) has to bounce back from a flat eighth in the Risen Star, but trainer Ken McPeek tends to have horses much sharper coming second off the lay. His form at age two suggests that he can be closer to the early pace than he was in the Risen Star and the one other time Corey Lanerie took the reins, that is exactly how he rode Real Men Violin. Add to it the fact that his pedigree has some upside for the stretch out in distance, and there are enough positives to include Real Men Violin as the price horse for exotic wagers in the Louisiana Derby.