Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3)

 Sam F. Davis Stakes a Taxing Event

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Buckle your seat belts as Tampa Bay Downs enters the run for the roses. The most difficult handicapping challenge this early in Derby Preps is knowing for sure if the horses are ready, especially those that last ran in 2023.

In last week’s Holy Bull Stakes from Gulfstream Park, we saw perfect example when the heavy favorite ran third.

The field for the Sam F. Davis, although large, only has three 2024 first time starters. The weather at the track on Saturday is beautiful with cloud cover and in the 70s. Nice day to go racing. 

 

Let’s look at the field:

1.    El Principito (Accelerate) has been struggling since he broke his maiden last September. His last doesn’t instill confidence for improvement. Not today.

2.     Tireless (No This Time) gets a new jockey after a nice MSW win over this course in January. Consistent runner at that level. Stepping up into graded company. Maybe too much.

3.     Patriot Spirit (Constitution) has solid works and speed figures coming into the race. Tried to wire field for the Iroquois Stakes after an impress win in MSW. This will be his first attempt in 2024 after a 70-day layoff. Maybe next time.

4.     Crazy Mason (Coal Front) performed well in last two races and shows solid form. Won at Saratoga last year and has a 1^st and 2^nd in last two starts at Tampa Bay Downs. Keeps jockey. Will be coming at the end. Maybe not in time.

5.     No More Time (Not This Time) working a bullet at Palm Meadows. Had trouble with 1^st start in 2024. Flatten out last, but gets seasoned, new jockey. Should help. Will likely be up front trying to match his 6-length win when going a mile at Gulfstream Park. In the money.

6.     Agate Road (Quality Road) turf runner converting to dirt. The likely best chance for one of two Pletcher  trained horses to be in the money. Won a grade 2T race last year. Works ok. Jose replaces Irad who rode him in his last four races. Irad Ortiz is not in the race. Needs a solid pace to close into for a win. May get it if he takes to the dirt.

7.     Copper Tax (Copper Bullet) working nicely. Has four wins after breaking his maiden. Last attempt in grade 2 Remsen running well in the mud until bumped finishing 6^th by 14 lengths. Could be in the mix down the stretch. Chance for an upset win.

8.     Everdoit (Gary D) working bullets after giving way in last. Gets back jockey who rode him in to two races. May not be fast enough for these today. Watch.

9.     Change Command (Into Mischief) won an open claimer at Gulfstream last out. Working a bullet. Won last two. Trying graded stakes race for the first time. Gaffalione replaces Jose Ortiz in the irons. Possible winner.

10. West Saratoga (Exaggerator) won a grade 3 race 3 back. Tried the Breeders’ Cup Futurity at Keeneland but faded. Has a race over the track. Off for three months before making his 2024 debut. If he can return to his 2024 form, he will be in the mix at the wire.

11. Fulmineo (Bolt d’Oro) Three months off since Breeders’ Cup race and finished a second in stakes race here at Tampa Bay Downs. If pace is honest, he will be coming hard at the end. Speed figures say he can compete. A live Long Shot.

12. Elysian Meadows (City of Lights) first trying in 2024 after a 57-day layoff. Comes into the race undefeated for trainer Bill Mott. It is an unusual training pattern for Mott, but you should never second guess Mott. Cautious.

    SUMMARY

The pace should be honest allowing for off-the-pace runners some success. The race will be won at the wire with a closer nipping a front runner. In the mix will be a strategically placed horse handled by a talented rider. Here is how they might finish:

#7  Copper Tax (5-1)

#5  No More  Time (10-1)

#9  Change of Command (3-1)

#11 Fulmineo  (15-1)

HANDIGAMBLE

$25 win---#7  Copper Tax…………          $25

$50 Place #7  Copper Tax…………          $50

$1 Tri Box: #5, #7, #9,  #11……….      $24