Winning Records on the line in Rachel Alexandra Stakes
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Oddly enough, Rachel Alexandra never competed in the prep, which has undergone a few name changes over the years. However, that doesn't diminish the significance of the race, and the winner's roll call reads like a who's who of accomplished fillies.
Pretty Mischievous, Untapable, Monomoy Girl, Serengeti Empress, Summerly, and Silverbulletday are some names enshrined as Rachel Alexandra/ Kentucky Oaks winners. Other notable winners include Grade 1 heroines Clairiere, I'm a Chatterbox, Shadow Cast, and Take Charge Lady, to name but a few.
Scheduled as race 13, the Rachel Alexandra post time is 5:48 PM CT, and the track may be muddy or sloppy.
This year's edition contains a competitive field of seven, and Brad Cox conditions half the field. There isn't an overwhelming standout, so let's examine the field.
The late-blooming Alpine Princess (7-2) won her two final starts last year, an allowance and the Untapable Stakes, by a combined two lengths. She handily beat West Omaha, who returned a runaway winner in the Silverbulletday. Alpine Princess has classic breeding She's by Champion 2-year-old Classic Empire out of the Curlin mare Le Moine. The mare is a half to stakes winning turf horse, and Another Miracle and Alpine Princess's second dam is a multiple stakes winner. Alpine Princess can set the pace or rate and will be dangerous. Contender.
Tarifa (5-1) is ready for prime time after besting a field of optional claimers in her 3-year-old debut. Reserved on the outside behind the pacesetter, the Brad Cox trainee chased the stubborn pacesetter and gradually inched clear. Bernardini's daughter is out of an unraced Awesome Again mare. Tarifa's second dam is a full sister to Tiznow. Although Tarifa earned an average 86 speed rating, her late-pace figure of 98 is the highest in this field. Cox and Pratt win at 26%, and rail posts have a 30% success rate. Exotics.
After graduating in her second start by four lengths, West Omaha (9-2) returned to place second behind Alpine Princess, earning a 92 career-best Brisnet rating. The Brad Cox trainee rebounded in the Silverbulletday, winning by five lengths over last-out maiden winner Perfect Shot and the previously undefeated stakes winner, Miss Code West.
West Omaha is by third-crop sire West Coast and out of the unraced Medaglia d'Oro mare Birthday Bash. Distant relatives include Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile hero Tapizar and Champion filly Untapable.
West Omaha's form shows a loose/win pattern, but with her tactical speed, she could break that pattern here. Exotics.
The late-blooming Perfect Shot (10-1) won her third attempt when she stretched to two turns. Returning off the layoff against winners in the Silverbulletday, the Steve Asmussen trainee made up ground but was no match for West Omaha.
By Gun Runner, out of a daughter of Bodemeister, Perfect Shot is bred to love classic distances. Her dam's half-sister bore Arkansas Derby hero Nadal, and another half-sister is a stakes-winning turf router.
Her speed figures aren't the best, but her pedigree and tactical running style suggest Perfect Shot could have a say in the outcome of the Rachel Alexandra. Live Longshot.
Although V V's Dream (5-2) is the morning line favorite, she may have distance concerns. By 2019 Champion Sprinter and #2 second-crop sire Mitole, the pretty gray filly is out of the winning sprinter/miler Quay, a daughter of Tapit. Quay's stakes-placed half-sister bore multiple Grade 2-winning miler Kathleen O. None of V V's Dream's half-siblings have won beyond a mile, and this filly lost ground in both starts around two turns. I'll take a stance and pass.
Pennick (8-1) successfully transferred her Polytrack form to mud and faced winners for the first time in an allowance event here over a sloppy track. She had to steady in traffic and patiently wait for an opening, but once clear, she opened up by four lengths, galloping home under a hand ride. Now, the Gary Scherer jumps from 5 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles.
Hard Spun's daughter is out of a winning Vindication mare and is half to a multiple graded-placed sprinter. Pennick won both starts by a combined 9 ¾ lengths. She has successfully shipped, tried a new surface, and has a series of 5-furlong works under her girth. However, Scherer has a 12% win rate with horses stretching out. Pass.
Analysis
Over the last 12 years, all but three fillies finished in the top four in their Rachel Alexandra prep, and only one of those preps wasn't a stakes race. The Golden Rod and Silverbulletday Stakes were key preps, accounting for six wins. Five heroines made their seasonal debut in the Rachel Alexandra.
Four favorites won and hit the board three times. The last favorite to enter the winner's circle was Serengeti Empress in 2019. No particular running style dominated, although pace pressers and closers won the previous four years.
Most of this year's field are closely matched and have tactical speed, so it could become a jockey's race. All of these guys are at the top of their game, further compounding the issue.
The Golden Rod heroine Intricate fits the historic winner's profile. Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione teamed to win last year's edition with Pretty Mischievous.
Untappable winner Alpine Princess and Silverbulletday
heroine West Omaha may have a say.
Picks
3. Intricate (3-1)
5. Alpine Princess (7-2)
7. West Omaha (9-2)
3. Perfect Shot (10-1)
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